Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

14 July 2003

GENERAL JONES

• Under the title “We will become more efficient” Sueddeutsche Zeitung, July 12, carries a question-and-answer interview with Gen. Jones covering various issues such as the realignment of U.S. troops in Europe, NATO’s commitments in the Balkans, possible developments in Afghanistan and Iraq, and transatlantic relations. Talking about troop realignment, Gen. Jones is quoted saying that the deployment pattern which is being assessed concerns an area of responsibility covering 93 countries and no decision has been made yet. Transformation, he reportedly adds, happens everywhere with regard to institutions, the operational concept, new technologies, and the agility with which we respond to new threats; it is now possible to do other things, for example having forces rotate more often. Asked how many units will be affected by the new measures, he is reported saying that there are a number of proposals involving bases and units with many options, and only the Ramstein base has been excluded because it is too important. (This statement was also reported in an AP dispatch following the interview, but a later AP report corrected it, clarifying that U.S. European Command officials said Gen. Jones stated U.S. forces wanted to maintain other bases in Germany and the newspaper confirmed it omitted that remark). According to the daily, Gen. Jones also stated, in response to a question on the tense situation in Iraq, that no one went into Iraq with the expectation that it would be over quickly, nevertheless no one in Europe should think in the light of re-orientation that the U.S. is willing to do less now: “We will be more efficient,” he reportedly says. Speaking about the possibility of NATO undertaking a mission in Iraq, he is reported saying a lot of people recommended that, and he thinks NATO is a wonderful Alliance able to do a number of things simultaneously; in addition transformation is going well and the NATO Response Force will be operational as a prototype with 5,000 to 7,000 servicemen in October. In conclusion, referring to the present relations between the U.S. and France and Germany in particular, Gen. Jones is quoted saying that military ties with these countries have become even stronger and contacts with German and French officers are closer.

IRAQ

• The Daily Telegraph writes that Iraq took a crucial step towards restoring self-rule yesterday when a governing council of 25 members, ranging from Shia clerics to westernized exiles, held its first meeting and agreed to scrap all public celebrations linked to Saddam, pledging to build a “unified, federal and democratic” country. The American administrator Paul Bremer handpicked the governing council which despite the name, notes the newspaper, has no executive powers and can only offer advice to the coalition provisional authority running the country.
  
  
• Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, according to the New York Times, July 13, said the U.S. might need to send additional troops to Iraq to quell an increasingly well-organized guerrilla resistance, and warned that more American soldiers would die this summer in attacks which could be coordinated at least at regional, possibly national level: “We expect that the summer is not going to be a peaceful summer. It is pretty clear that in a city or an area, there is coordination. We don’t have any good evidence that it’s nationwide or even a large region, but it’s possible,” he was reported saying. Furthermore, he reportedly said on Wednesday that the overall number of foreign troops in Iraq would stay about where it is for the foreseeable future but at the same time he suggested that some troops from other nations would replace U.S. soldiers, reducing the American presence somewhat. “It would be incorrect to say we expect that international forces will replace all of the U.S. forces. We don’t anticipate that,” he reportedly added. According to the daily, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld confirmed that American officials were bracing for a possible new wave of attacks against U.S. armed forces during the next week to coincide with anniversaries tied to Saddam and the Baath Party.

ISAF

• An AFP dispatch, July 13, reports an ISAF spokesman saying that a squad of NATO troops arrived in Kabul Sunday ahead of the organization’s takeover of command of the International Security Assistance Force which patrols the city. “Forty two NATO soldiers arrived in Kabul by plane this morning,” said Colonel Loebbering, adding: “An advance team is already present in the Afghan capital to prepare for the takeover of ISAF command.” NATO, reminds the dispatch, is due to take over command of ISAF on August 11 and the mission, which will be directed by German General Goetz Gliemeroth with Canadian Maj. Gen. Andrew Leslie as deputy commander, will be the Alliance’s first operation outside Europe.

THE FOLLOWING CLIPPINGS ARE FROM THE 14 July 2003, News Summary and Analysis:

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS, July 12, 2003

Only one key air base safe in U.S. review of German
military deployment, top U.S. commander in Europe says

By Stephen Graham

Every U.S. military base in Germany except a huge air base used to support operations in Afghanistan and Iraq faces the threat of closure under a reassessment of United States' defense needs, the top U.S. commander in Europe said in remarks published Saturday. The bulk of about 115,000 U.S. military personnel stationed in Europe are in Germany, prompting analysts to forecast that thousands will be leaving once Pentagon planners decide how to adapt structures left over from the Cold War to new tasks such as fighting terrorism. In an interview with a German newspaper, U.S. Gen. James Jones , NATO's Supreme Allied Commander, said that while "a row of concrete proposals" have already been made on reorganizing U.S. forces across Europe, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has yet to take any decisions. "Only the Ramstein base is not up for discussion _ it's too important," Jones was quoted as saying in the Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily. "We would like to operate Ramstein for as long as we're welcome in Germany. I don't want to talk about the others." "Basically, anything is possible," he said. Ramstein Air Base, home of the U.S. Air Forces in Europe and the 86th Airlift Wing, has been a key staging post for supplies ferried to U.S. and allied troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. It has also been a destination for dead and wounded U.S. soldiers from those conflicts, many bound for the nearby Landstuhl military hospital. Still, the U.S. is expected to reduce air and ground forces kept on large permanent bases hosted by allies such as Germany and South Korea and has already announced its withdrawal from Saudi Arabia. Other U.S. units based in Germany include the Army's V Corps based in Heidelberg, the 1st Armored Division in Wiesbaden and the 52nd Fighter Wing at Spangdahlem Air Base. In an illustration of how U.S. priorities have shifted, Gen. Jones has been ordered to begin planning for possible American intervention in Liberia. But he refused to be drawn in the interview on whether the U.S. European Command based in Stuttgart is becoming specialized in leading state-buiding operations after its role in restoring order in the Balkans. "The hardest part of a military operation is the end. That's not only true in Iraq," he said. "It takes more than just the military to build up a state." Gen. Jones also predicted a long engagement in Afghanistan for NATO, which takes over command from Germany and the Netherlands of an international peacekeeping force there next month. He suggested the alliance remained open to calls from the United Nations and Afghanistan's shaky interim government to expand the mission beyond the Afghan capital Kabul. The mission's commanders have been told to "make a recommendation, if they believe the mandate should be changed," he said.

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS, July 13, 2003

Correction: Germany-US Bases

Members who used BC-Germany-US Bases, which moved July 12 under a Berlin dateline, are asked to use the following story.

BERLIN (AP) In a July 12 story about plans to reorganize U.S. forces in Europe, The Associated Press, quoting a German newspaper interview, reported erroneously that every base in Germany except Ramstein Air Base was threatened with possible closure. The article was based on an interview with U.S. Gen. James Jones, NATO's supreme allied commander, published in question-and-answer form in the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper.

However, U.S. European Command officials said Gen. Jones stated that U.S. forces also wanted to maintain other bases in Germany. The newspaper confirmed it omitted that remark.

THE DAILY TELEGRAPH, July 14, 2003
New council puts Iraq on path to self-rule

By David Blair

Iraq took a crucial step towards restoring self-rule yesterday when a governing council of 25 members, ranging from Shia clerics to westernised exiles, held its first meeting and agreed to scrap all public celebrations linked to Saddam Hussein. The new council sought to bury Saddam's legacy from the platform of the Baghdad conference centre where the old regime had staged numerous "solidarity and friendship conferences". Iraq's governing council met in Baghdad for the first time and banned all celebrations linked to Saddam. It pledged to build a "unified, federal and democratic" country. Sergio Vieria de Mello, the United Nations envoy, hailed the occasion as a "defining moment" in Iraqi history. But US troops thronged the corridors of the palatial conference centre, one of Saddam's showpieces, and tanks were stationed outside. The omnipresent US military muscle was a vivid indication of where real power lies. Paul Bremer, the American administrator, handpicked the governing council. Despite the name, it has no executive powers and can only offer advice to the coalition provisional authority which is running the country. This year's national budget of £4 billion was announced last week before the council had met. Yet Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, perhaps its most important member representing Iraq's Shia Muslim majority, pledged that its powers would be enlarged and said he wanted to see an end to the Anglo-American "invasion". As the only institution giving Iraqis a say in government at national level, the council is the first glimpse of the country's new political map. Thirteen of its members are Shia Muslims, reflecting their status as 60 per cent of the population. Five are Kurds and one is Turkoman, representing the non-Arab minorities totalling about 20 per cent of Iraqis. There is one Christian and three women. The Sunni Muslims, Iraq's traditional elite, have five places. The West's favourite exiles are on the council. Ahmad Chalabi, head of the Iraqi National Congress, and the protege of the Pentagon, joins Ayad Alawi, head of the Iraqi National Accord. The Kurdish leaders, who enjoyed de facto independence in northern Iraq under American and British protection, are also members. Yet neither Jalal Talabani, head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, nor Massoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdish Democratic Party, who are both on the council, has a genuine popular following inside Iraq, and the two Kurds cannot hope to be national leaders in an Arab-dominated country. Instead, the key players are those who command the allegiance of Iraq's Shia majority. Neither of the two foremost leaders are on the council. Ayatollah Mohammed Baqr al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, declined to join and sent his younger brother, Abdul Aziz. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the spiritual leader of Iraqi Shias, hovers above the political fray from the holy city of Najaf. The stance of these men will be crucial. For the moment, both are keeping their options open. But Abdul Aziz al-Hakim indicated that he would try to enlarge the council's powers. He told a press conference: "It is true that the powers are limited . . . but we will try to improve things and expand those responsibilities as we move forward. We are working as fast as possible to end this invasion." The final sentence, delivered in the presence of Mr Bremer, and his senior aides, was dropped from the official translation. It contrasted with Mr Chalabi's effusive thanks to America and Britain. Mr Bremer has the power to veto any council decision. Yet his aides say he will tread softly and allow the body to demonstrate its independence. One of its technocratic members, Adnan Pachachi, a former Iraqi foreign minister, said Mr Bremer would never use his veto. No one objected to the council's first decision, which ended all public holidays associated with Saddam. This was timely as tomorrow is the 45th anniversary of the overthrow of the monarchy in 1958. Thursday is the 35th anniversary of Saddam's Ba'ath party revolution. The governing council wants such dates forgotten. It decided that Iraq's new Independence Day would be April 9 - the day of Saddam's overthrow this year. The council's later decisions are unlikely to be so popular.

THE NEW YORK TIMES, July 14, 2003

Rumsfeld Says Iraq May Need a Larger Force

By Eric Schmitt

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said today that the United States might need to send additional troops to Iraq to quell an increasingly well-organized guerrilla resistance, and warned that more American soldiers would die in attacks this summer. Mr. Rumsfeld also said for the first time that the attacks against American troops by remnants of Saddam Hussein's security forces, fedayeen fighters and Iraqi prisoners released before the war, were being coordinated at least regionally and possibly nationally. Mr. Rumsfeld and his top aides had expressed optimism in recent weeks that American troop levels in Iraq could begin to decline as additional allied ground forces arrived later this summer and more newly trained Iraqi police officers took up positions around the country. But the increasing frequency and sophistication of the attacks against American forces and Iraqis helping them have stirred alarm among American officials and caused commanders and Mr. Rumsfeld to rethink force levels. "It seems to me that the numbers of U.S. forces are unlikely to go up," he said on the NBC News program "Meet the Press." "Now, could they? You bet. If they're needed, they will be there." There are 148,000 American and 13,000 non-American troops in Iraq now, with 17,000 more allied soldiers pledged to arrive over the summer. Mr. Rumsfeld said 28,000 of the 60,000 Iraqi police officers needed were now on the job. American occupation leaders also plan to train a new Iraqi army of 12,000 soldiers within one year, expanding it to 40,000 within three years. As recently as Wednesday, in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Mr. Rumsfeld had agreed with Gen. Tommy R. Franks, who recently stepped down as the commander of troops in the region, that the overall number of foreign troops in Iraq would stay about where it is for the foreseeable future. At the same time, he suggested that some troops from other nations would replace United States soldiers, reducing the American presence somewhat. "It would be incorrect to say that we expect that international forces will replace all of U.S. forces," Mr. Rumsfeld said under intense questioning by senators. "We don't anticipate that." In his testimony, he also said that if the strains of American deployments of ground troops around the world forced the Pentagon to seek to increase the size of the Army and the Marines, "clearly, we will come to Congress and ask for an increase," adding, "But at the moment, we do not see that that's the case." Mr. Rumsfeld is to be briefed this week by military commanders on how long troops now in Iraq ought to be kept there, and on which units might leave. They would be replaced by other American forces as part of a rotation that changes the mixture of troops from those specialized in intense combat to those better suited for keeping the uneasy peace and sporadic hostilities. Today, Mr. Rumsfeld confirmed that American officials were bracing for a possible new wave of attacks against United States forces during the next week to coincide with anniversaries tied to Mr. Hussein and the Baath Party. The anniversaries include July 14, the date of the 1958 coup against the British-backed monarchy, which under Mr. Hussein was celebrated as Iraq's National Day; July 16, the date that Mr. Hussein took power in 1979; and July 17, the date of the Baath Party revolution in 1968. "We expect that the summer is not going to be a peaceful summer," Mr. Rumsfeld said on the ABC News program "This Week," noting the increased resistance. "It's pretty clear that in a city or an area, there is coordination. We don't have any good evidence that it's nationwide or even a large region, but it's possible." On "Meet the Press," Mr. Rumsfeld warned of more American casualties, saying: "Are people being shot at? Yes. Is it a difficult situation? You bet. Are more people going to be killed? I'm afraid that's true." Speaking with more urgency than in the past, Mr. Rumsfeld said capturing or killing Mr. Hussein was paramount so as to deny guerrillas a rallying figure and to ease the fears of other Iraqis that the former president could somehow return to power. "The fact that Saddam Hussein has not been found does cause a problem," he said on "This Week." "We do need to find him. We do need to get closure." When asked about the cost of the Iraq mission, Mr. Rumsfeld said on "Meet the Press" that the $2 billion-a-month price tag in April was an estimate by The New York Times. But in fact, the Pentagon comptroller, Dov S. Zakheim, was quoted in The Times on Friday as the source of that figure. Appearing 30 minutes later on "This Week," Mr. Rumsfeld cited the April figure as the Pentagon's and acknowledged that the postwar costs had roughly doubled, to about $4 billion a month. In discussing the attacks on American forces, Mr. Rumsfeld said on "Meet the Press" that many of them seemed directed at stalling efforts to establish a new Iraqi government and to rebuild the economy. "The leftovers, the dead-enders from that regime, are targeting our successes," he said. "I'm afraid we are going to have to expect this to go on."