• Military Menu                       

• Introduction
• Systems
• Facilities
• Agencies
• Industry
• Operations
• Countries
• Hot Documents
• News
• Reports
• Policy
• Budget
• Congress
• Links

• WMD
• Intelligence
• Homeland Security
• Space

The Indonesian military is continuing its offensive against separatist rebels in Aceh province. At least 400 people have died and thousands have been left homeless. The military operation has implications for coming elections.

Five years ago, Indonesian President Suharto, a former general who ruled with strong military support, was ousted. There were pledges then that the military would cease its political role. But analysts say the Indonesian armed forces' bid for a military rather than a political solution to Aceh's separatist movement underscores its resurgent political role.

For 27 years, military efforts to crush the Aceh rebels failed, and the armed forces were accused of widespread human rights abuses in the province.

Against the military's wishes, President Megawati Sukarnoputri signed a truce with the rebels last year. But the cease-fire tottered and finally collapsed, leading her to declare martial law and unleash the army in Aceh in May.

Some analysts think that with Indonesia's first direct presidential election due next year, Ms. Megawati does not want to appear to be soft on Aceh.

Rachland Nishidik, an analyst with the Indonesian human rights monitoring group Impartial, said Ms. Megawati decided to give in to the military's demands, and gave them what he terms a "blank check" in Aceh. "She chose, I believe, to deliver the Aceh problem to the military, to be handled solely by the military, while she is focusing on the coming election. So it is very irresponsible," he said.

There is little public support in the country for Aceh's separatists, particularly after East Timor voted for independence in 1999, and broke free from Indonesian rule.

Sidney Jones, the Indonesia program director for International Crisis Group, said the new offensive against GAM, as the Achenese rebel group is known, is popular among Indonesians. "The military wants a chance to show that it can, at least, make a major dent, not only in GAM's armed wing, but in its political support structure. And, I think, the popular support is such that it's very difficult for any politicians who have aspirations to roles in the 2004 elections that will be held here next year to speak out against what's going on," Ms. Jones said.

Indonesian military chief Endriartono Sutarto was recently quoted as saying the campaign in Aceh will likely take longer than the six months originally predicted, and could take years.

Mr. Rachland said a drawn-out campaign in Aceh could spell trouble for Ms. Megawati as she seeks a second term. "Anything can be happening, you know, in the context of the coming election. Megawati could also be criticized, yeah. Those who are supporting Megawati now on declaring the martial law in Aceh could turn their back to Megawati when the time comes totally for the purpose of political interest," he said.

An extended campaign in Aceh will drain Indonesian financial resources, slowing economic growth for the impoverished nation. Ms. Jones said a long fight also could create a whole new generation of supporters of Aceh separatism.