Military

DATE=05/11/03

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=TRANSFORMING THE MIDEAST

NUMBER=5-53794

BYLINE=MIKE MORAVITZ

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: The success of the war in Iraq and high hopes for a new U-S-backed initiative to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have led officials in the Bush administration and former policy makers to contemplate the likelihood of achieving greater stability and democracy throughout the Middle East. In this background report, V-O-A's Mike Moravitz examines some views on the issue.

TEXT: President Bush in recent days has spoken about his belief that the Mideast region can be transformed, if parties in the region seize the opportunity for change. Hopes for peace have risen with the ouster of Saddam Hussein's government in Iraq and the election of the new Palestinian prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas.

The United States is one of the sponsors of the so-called road map for peace between the Israelis and Palestinians that would lead to the creation of an independent Palestinian state by 2005.

In a commencement address at the University of South Carolina last week, Mr. Bush discussed his hopes for a new Middle East that would no longer be a haven for Islamic extremism and terrorism.

/// BUSH ACT ///

We will use our influence and idealism to replace old hatreds with new hopes across the Middle East. A time of historic opportunity has arrived. A dictator in Iraq has been removed from power. The terrorists of that region are now seeing their fate, the short unhappy life of the fugitive. Reformers in the Middle East are gaining influence, and the momentum of freedom is growing. We have reached a moment of tremendous promise, and the United States will seize this moment for the sake of peace.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Bush dispatched Secretary of State Colin Powell to the region to press the Israelis and Palestinians to accept the road map for peace, and take immediate steps to move the peace process forward.

/// OPT /// Before leaving Washington, Mr. Powell spoke of the new situation in the region and his hopes for a breakthrough.

/// POWELL ACT // OPT ACT ///

I am anxious to see if we cannot make progress as rapidly as possible and take advantage of the new strategic situation created by the end of the regime in Baghdad and the new strategic situation created by the appointment of a Palestinian prime minister and the presentation of the road map.

/// END ACT // END OPT ///

Officials and analysts say key to transforming the Middle East is the election of a democratic government in Iraq that could serve as a model for the region. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger told C-N-N television's "Late Edition" that recent developments do present an opportunity for the United States to influence change in Iraq and, by extension, the region.

/// KISSINGER ACT ///

It is an extraordinary opportunity, because Iraq does have a middle class, and it does have resources from which it can regenerate itself. On the other hand, it is divided into several ethnic groups, different religious interpretations of Islam. So, it is a tremendous assignment. But it is also a great opportunity, because, if we succeed in this, as I believe we will, it can change the whole political climate of the Middle East.

/// END ACT ///

But other analysts are emphasizing the difficulties of transforming a region where authoritarian regimes are reluctant to relinquish power, Islamic extremism has taken root, and conflict seems ever-present.

Former Central Intelligence Agency Director James Woolsey, who served during the Clinton administration, has described the war on terrorism as a world conflict similar to the Cold War. He told N-B-C television recently that the United States must accept the challenge to transform the Middle East, but he cautioned this struggle could take decades.

/// WOOLSEY ACT ///

We need to work with the good and decent Muslims in that part of the world and in the Arab world to help them change the nature of some of those dictatorial states, and it is going to take time. It is going to be like the Cold War. It will take years, I think verging into decades.

/// END ACT ///

Observers will be watching first and foremost developments in post-Saddam Iraq and progress toward resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. (SIGNED)

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