Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

9 May 2003

GENERAL JONES

• In a video interview recorded May 2 at NATO headquarters, and now posted on the SHAPE web site (www.shape.nato.int), Gen. Jones discusses his priorities as well as plans to revitalize the military capabilities of NATO. He also applauds the vision and will of NATO’s political leaders to enlarge the Alliance by inviting seven new member nations, as well as their commitment to extend the reach of NATO forces on global missions.

NATO

The U.S. Senate’s unanimous ratification of NATO’s enlargement is generating high interest.
NATO’s enlargement to seven central and east European nations shows how U.S. geostrategy for Europe has refocused on former Soviet Union satellite states, notes AFP. The dispatch stresses that while their economic and military might is not so great, the new members’ geographic situation at the heart of Europe reinforces U.S. analysts who favor a repositioning of U.S. forces stationed in Europe. Several bases in Germany could be moved further east. Bulgaria has already indicated willingness to offer four or five military bases to NATO that could be used by the United States. With that, NATO forces would be brought closer to the Middle East and the Caucasus, a platform that only Turkey was so far able to make available, notes the dispatch.
Noting in a related article that the foreign ministers of Bulgaria and Romania have said they would welcome bases for U.S. troops once they became full NATO members, the Financial Times writes: “Gen. Jones is in the process of reevaluating the U.S. ‘footprint’ in the region and is expected to recommend that many of the 80,000 troops based in Germany be moved eastward. Pentagon insiders have said that Bulgaria and Romania, with their ports on the Black Sea that were used during the Iraq war, are leading contenders.”
The International Herald Tribune quotes Senator Lugar, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, suggesting that the Senate’s vote will underscore the relevance of NATO and help end bitter disagreements over the Iraq war.
Plans for an overhaul of the U.S. troop basing in Europe remain at the center of German media interest.
The question is not whether the American military will reduce its presence in Germany. What remains to be seen is when that will happen—and above all to what extent, writes Sueddeutsche Zeitung. Arguing that while the United States describes the relocation of forces as restructuring, the measure is also an expression of annoyance at the Germans, the newspaper comments: “Of course, several interpretations are possible here. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld’s indication that a decision will be taken as early as September makes one sit and take notice. Immediately before the start of the Gulf war, … Gen. Jones had declared in his headquarters at EUCOM that decisions could not be expected before next spring. ‘There is no list of which bases in Germany will be closed,’ he said. The Americans officially declared their plans to be part of a worldwide restructuring—moving from the large bases of the Cold War era to smaller forward bases from where the forces can be deployed more rapidly and more flexibly to crisis areas. However, from Washington’s point of view, this strategy can be combined with many small pinpricks against Germany, where the withdrawal of the forces is actually feared, and the media like to dwell on such things.” The article stresses, however, that whether the end of the American military presence is near remains to be seen. There are important arguments against a total withdrawal. Bases such as the Spangdahlem Air Force Base or the Ramstein air hub are huge logistics centers that can be deployed only at high costs and are currently even being expanded, the article notes and continues: “In Grafenwoehr, the U.S. Army has its largest European training area, and at EUCOM headquarters, the war in Iraq was co-organized. In confident talks, high-ranking U.S. military officials expressed doubts whether a relocation of such mammoth bases would be reasonable. Before the war, Gen. Jones himself said openly that such a move was not ‘rational.’” The article concludes that the most probably version is partial withdrawal, for example from smaller bases in Germany. “The moment to finally say goodbye has not come yet,” the article opines.

BALKANS

• Jyllands-Posten, May 7, reported that Denmark’s Army Operational Command (HOK) has decided to reduce its military contingent in Kosovo by 113 soldiers, corresponding to a 25 percent cut. In August, there will be only about 350 Danish soldiers left in KFOR, the daily noted. In a related development, AFP quotes German daily Bild saying Germany is to withdraw 140 air force troops serving with KFOR by May 19. Bild reportedly added that the troops are in charge of guarding German bases around Prizren, and will now be replaced by Georgian soldiers. Another AFP dispatch quotes President Putin’s Press Office saying Thursday that Russia will withdraw its peacekeeping troops from Bosnia and Kosovo by Aug. 1. “This decision was taken in light of the current political and military situation in the Balkans,” the head of the Parliamentary Defense Committee, Gen. Nikolayev, reportedly said after Putin sent a letter to the Lower Chamber of Parliament explaining the move. “The main problems in Kosovo today are drugs and arms trafficking and illegal immigration. The police should deal with these, not the army,” the general reportedly stressed.