Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

28 April 2003

IRAQ

• According to the International Herald Tribune , top U.S. military officials said on Sunday that a repositioning of American forces in the Gulf region was likely as well as some shift away from Saudi Arabia to such allies of the Iraq war as Qatar. Gen. Tommy Franks was reported saying: “Since the regime in Iraq has gone, there will likely be a arrangement of the footprint,” meaning the disposition of U.S. forces in the region. There could be even a short-term increase of the U.S. military presence in the region, Gen. Franks reportedly said after talks with officials in Abu Dhabi, as efforts to bring stability and provide humanitarian relief continue in both Iraq and Afghanistan. The newspaper also argues that Gen. Franks’ reference to the overflights of the northern and southern flight-exclusion zones in Iraq provided a clue to possible repositioning of forces. Both Gen. Franks and Defense Secretary Rumsfeld met leaders of the United Arab Emirates on Sunday to thank them for the help provided during the war and to discuss possible disposition of troops. Both men told the Emirates’ officials that U.S. military forces were not going to leave any time soon. Accordingly, the New York Times writes that the shifting of the U.S. major air operations center for the Middle East from Saudi Arabia to Qatar, is the first step in what is likely to be a significant reduction of American forces in Saudi Arabia and a realignment of American military presence in the region.
  
  
• A Reuters dispatch reports Gazeta Wyborcza, the top-selling Polish daily, asserting that U.S. would like Poland to contribute up to 4,000 troops to a peacekeeping force overseeing the establishing of a democratic government in Iraq. The newspaper quoted a senior Pentagon official saying that the Polish brigade was part of one of two international divisions that Washington is considering for the peacekeeping force. However, the Polish foreign minister was also quoted saying: “It is too early to say how many Polish troops will be included in the stabilization force.” Poland, the newspaper adds, could take command of one division in Iraq, which would also involve a British force.

ESDP

• The Financial Times writes that in an attempt to repair their relations with the U.S., France and Germany will push to water down plans for an independent European defense force at a summit in Brussels tomorrow. The newspaper observes that the summit, called by Belgian Prime Minister Verhofstadt, includes leaders from France, Germany and Luxembourg only and it is seen by others EU governments as anti-American and anti-NATO in its timing and intentions. However, the daily stresses, the summit comes just when the French President is trying to repair relations with Washington, and this explains why he does not want the summit to become a forum for NATO bashing or for European defense policy independent of the U.S.-led military Alliance. The original aim of the summit, stresses the daily, was to strengthen EU defense to avoid member states being dragged into an ad hoc “coalition of the willing” established by the U.S. especially for the war against Iraq. The Belgian Prime Minister, according to the newspaper, had already told prime minister Blair how he wants to create a separate European military headquarters with its own planning facilities. The Dutch, however, reportedly said they do not see the necessity of a duplication with NATO and likewise Germany publicly rejected calls for a European army, and oppose plans for integrated military headquarters. All this, concludes the daily, makes Prime Minister Verhofstadt, who wants a much stronger collective clause to be included in the proposals drawn by the European Convention on the future of Europe, the only advocate of his own plans. In the same vein, The Guardian reports that British Defense Secretary Hoon, warns that a “mini-summit risks sending a message of division about the creation of a defense policy separate from NATO.” Moreover, against the background of Europe creating a rival power with the U.S., the newspaper reports Prime Minister Blair stated in an interview to the Financial Times: “I don’t want Europe setting itself up in opposition to America…I think it will be dangerous and destabilizing.” Furthermore, talking about France, he was reported saying that it might have a vision of a multi-polar world with different centers of power but, he was also quoted saying: “I believe that they will very quickly develop into rival centers of power.”