Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

24 April 2003

SACEUR

• NATO is militarily ready to deploy in post-war Iraq but has not been asked said Gen. Jones according to an AFP dispatch, speaking at SHAPE in a press conference today. “Today I have received no guidance and no instructions to do planning of any sort, but if it did come, we’ll be prepared to do so,” he reportedly said, and added: “We just have to wait and see what the political will is…..If tasked we could bring our resources to bear to fashion a response. But for that to happen it would have to be asked, and I have not been asked.” According to the report Gen. Jones continues: “Without having particular tasking to do so it would not be proper for me to speculate on the type of contribution that SHAPE could play, but this is a very capable organization.” The dispatch further reports that Gen. Jones said that NATO hoped to have a rapid Response Force of up to 2,000 soldiers ready to deploy by October. The dispatch observes that the planned force is a keystone of NATO’s transformation, agreed at a landmark summit last November, to create a new fighting force for the post 9/11 world. Gen. Jones is finally quoted saying: “What we hope to show is an initial capability that will be an integrated air land and sea force that is capable of reacting on a moment’s notice.” AP writes a similar dispatch reporting Gen. Jones saying that NATO is hastening preparations to create rapid response units as the Alliance expands its reach to include peacekeeping in Afghanistan and, perhaps, Iraq, although so far he has not received any guidance nor instructions to do any planning whatsoever. Recently, the report adds, NATO nations are considering the U.S. proposal for Alliance troops to help stabilize the country after the war and Paris has also softened its stance by dropping objections to NATO taking command of the UN peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan. “The fact we are doing this sends a signal about what the leadership thinks about NATO and what we can do in the 21st century….It shows that NATO wants to have an out-of-area capability, not just in a regional sense, but in a global sense,” Gen. Jones is quoted saying. Talking about the project for a NATO Response Force, Gen. Jones reportedly said: “The NATO Response Force is the vehicle for the transformation of NATO for the future,” and furthermore: “That example will galvanize the imagination.” Gen. Jones reportedly stated that despite the heavy commitment in the Balkans NATO has plenty of operational capability left, and he regretted Russia’s recent decision to withdraw almost 1,000 soldiers from Kosovo and Bosnia saying that their participation had “reflected a very powerful message of cooperation.” Questioned about the tense relations between the U.S. and France, Gen. Jones reportedly said that military ties between the two countries remain “extremely strong and consistent.” The web version of De Standaard also reported about the press conference stating that a 2,000 man strong NATO Response Force can be operational in October.

IRAQ

• The Guardian reports that Jay Garner, the retired general overseeing Iraq’s post-war reconstruction and the interim administration, held out the promise yesterday of a Bosnia-style commission to resolve disputes between ethnic groups displaced in northern Iraq during Saddam’s regime. A commission to “arbitrate what is just and fair” would help to reverse “years of ethnic cleansing” of Kurds and other minorities around the cities of Kirkuk and Mosul. But details of the proposed commission remain vague, observes the daily. Gen. (R) Garner, in his two-day visit to the Kurdish-controlled north of Iraq, reportedly also added that the commission would comprise representatives of all Iraq’s communities.
  
  
• According to the Washington Post, Egyptian President Mubarak added his voice to those of other U.S. allies in the Arab world urging the U.S. to swiftly transfer power in Baghdad to a new Iraqi government so that the U.S. and British forces can be withdrawn from Iraq as soon as possible. At the same time President Mubarak urged the UN to play a central role in establishing a new Iraqi government and rebuild the country. The newspaper stresses that his remarks came just one day after leaders of two other key U.S. allies, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, also said the UN should take an active role in Iraq. In the meantime, reports an article carried by the International Herald Tribune, the American military moved Wednesday to strip Baghdad’s self-appointed administrator of his authority and warned Iraqi factions not to take advantage of the present confusion to take power. Lt. Gen. McKiernan issued a proclamation reminding Iraq’s politicians that “the coalition and the coalition alone retains absolute authority within Iraq.” Allied commanders, continues the newspaper, are considering a plan to either demobilize the Iraqi forces or put them under allied command.

Media focused on the U.S. concern that Iran could try to promote a like-minded Islamic fundamentalist regime in Iraq. Washington, writes The Guardian, warned Iran not to interfere in Iraqi affairs yesterday after it was reported that Iranian agents had crossed the border to promote pro-Tehran Shia clerics in the southern cities of Kerbala, Najaf and Basra. The White House spokesman, Ari Fleischer, reportedly stated that the U.S. will not tolerate any interference in the Iraq’s road to democracy from outside organizations. In a related article, The Times reports that the U.S.’s concern is that the Iraqis will embrace the same brand of Shia clerical rule adopted in Iran, which implies that Shia’s supreme religious leader also controls political life. Furthermore, the daily quotes Gen. (R) Garner saying, against too pessimistic expectations, that he did not believe all Shias wanted an Islamic state and the situation was improving daily.

The U.S. Secretary of State yesterday’s blunt remarks are seen by media as a sign that the France’s conciliatory proposal that most UN sanctions on Iraq should to suspend did not succeed in mending the relations between Washington and Paris, which are still strained.
Secretary of State Powell warned yesterday France, according to The Guardian, that it would pay a price for its opposition to the Iraq war. A U.S. administration official was also reported confirming that some steps would be taken to downgrade formal relations between the two countries, possibly ending the regular four-way consultations between foreign ministry political directors from the U.S., France, Britain and Germany. France may also encounter difficulties in exploiting its oil concessions in Iraq, but the official reportedly said there was no question of broader economic sanctions. The White House spokesman was quoted saying by the Washington Times about the French proposal: “With the regime gone, the U.S. position is economic sanctions are no longer necessary. They shouldn’t be merely suspended, they should be out-and-out lifted.” In a related article, Le Figaro argues that Washington is considering the possibility to sanction France for its opposition to the Iraq war. Paris, however, seems to minimize the menace, writes the daily, citing the French government spokesperson affirming that the statement does not reflect the reality of the relations between the two countries.” In a similar vein, Liberation writes that in spite of President Chirac’s efforts to restore good relations with the U.S., Washington threatens to marginalize France and the Pentagon has reportedly suggested to exclude France from all decisions to be taken within the Alliance by reducing as much as possible the role of the NAC (which France is part of) and reinforcing on the other hand the role of the DPC, left by France in 1966.

EU

• The Times writes that Europe’s smaller states were closing ranks yesterday against a plan by Valery Giscard d’Estaing, chief architect of the new constitution, which would create a Union president and hand power back to the bigger nations. By creating a powerful full-time chairman and permanent bureau to run the Council of Member States, the daily argues, nations such as Britain, France, Spain and to a lesser extent Germany and Italy would be favored. Jean-Claude Juncker, the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, and a leading voice among the EU’s smaller states, reportedly accused Mr. Giscard of ignoring 16 out of the 25 EU leaders. “I would like to think that this is just a provocation aimed at stirring debate,” he is quoted saying.