Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

17 April 2003

ISAF

• According to Reuters, an ISAF spokesman said in Kabul Thursday that NATO plans to lead ISAF until elections next year, but has no current plans to expand beyond Kabul, despite UN and government pleas. The spokesman reportedly told a news conference that NATO would take over from the joint German-Dutch command in August. Asked if NATO would retain that command until election due in June next year, he replied: “That is the intention.” He added that ISAF’s UN-mandated mission, which is to assist in maintaining security in Kabul, would remain the same and it would continue to welcome participation from non-NATO countries. “The ISAF area of responsibility is bound to Kabul and its vicinities and this will not change,” he reportedly stressed.

NATO’s decision to enhance its support to ISAF is generating interest. International media highlight that it will be the first time since its creation that NATO has taken charge of a mission outside the north Atlantic area. Several speculate that the mission, which, they note, marks the start of a new era for an Alliance in transformation, might serve as a catalyst for a similar Alliance involvement in Iraq.

NATO’s decision to play a greater role in ISAF marks the Alliance’s biggest step outside of its traditional Euro-Atlantic area of operations and could also serve as a model for a possible NATO role in Iraq, writes the Wall Street Journal. According to the newspaper, the immediate practical ramifications of the NATO decision are significant for the smooth running of the peacekeeping mission in Kabul. But the most important long-term consequence of the NATO move lies in the political impact it will have on the Alliance itself, on a possible NATO role in Iraq and on the trans-Atlantic relations. “It means that we are doing more than just paying lip service to making NATO an effective player outside of its traditional European area of operations and in the war on terrorism,” the newspaper quotes one NATO diplomat saying and adding: “It shows clearly that whatever bad blood existed here in the Alliance hasn’t stopped us from taking action.” Suggesting that the Afghanistan decision lays out some important contours of what a potential NATO role in Iraq could look like, the newspaper explains: ISAF was authorized by the UN from the very beginning, making it much easier for NATO to play a role in Kabul. A similar authorization will be necessary for the Alliance to get involved in Iraq. U.S. officials say no decision has been made yet on precisely what role the UN will have in Iraq and add that it will take a few weeks to figure out how NATO can be involved. People familiar with the matter said, however, that U.S. officials have given a very rough estimate of a possible peacekeeping contingent at 20,000 to 30,000 troops.
An editorial in the same newspaper welcomes France’s lifting of its opposition to NATO taking the lead in Afghanistan and speculates that Paris’ approach holds out hope of progress on a whole range of security and international issues. “The potential for a true new world order has never looked better. As NATO diplomats in Brussels said, France’s decision finally puts paid to the debate over whether the Alliance will act ‘out of area.’ More importantly, it is being seen as a prelude to an involvement by the Alliance in peacekeeping in Iraq. NATO will continue to act under the mandate and flag of ISAF. But there’s less to this figleaf than meets the eye, and in fact the arrangement could bode well for future operations of this type around the world,” adds the editorial.
Noting that NATO will take over ISAF’s command but its flag will not be raised in front of the headquarters in Kabul, Die Welt stresses: “Officially, ISAF is to be under the command of a ‘lead nation.’ But observers consider this to be a purely formalistic differentiation.” In this respect, the newspaper quotes one NATO official saying: “With or without the flag, NATO will command ISAF de facto.” In the future, adds the German daily, units from the Alliance’s political and military headquarters are to provide personnel for the headquarters in Kabul together with the personnel from troop-contributing nations. SACEUR will appoint the ISAF commander, who will probably be provided by the respective lead nation. NATO militaries will be responsible for the strategic coordination of the operation and the political directives given by the Brussels headquarters. In a similar vein, AFP reports that “strategic coordination, command and control will be exercised by NATO through SHAPE.”
The Washington Post quotes military experts saying meanwhile that with NATO committed in Afghanistan and with Europe’s capacity for contributing large numbers of peacekeepers already strained by operations in Afghanistan and the Balkans, the United States and British might be forced to shoulder much of the peacekeeping burden in Iraq. The newspaper adds, however, that theoretically, European countries could commit tens of thousands of troops to peacekeeping duties in Iraq. “NATO Secretary General Robertson has noted publicly that there are 2 million people under arms in NATO’s 18 European member countries, and some more in the seven incoming member countries from Eastern Europe,” the article continues.

EU

• According to AP, EU leaders concluding a two-day meeting in Athens said in a statement Thursday the UN “must play a central role” in the reconstruction of Iraq, starting with the coordination of humanitarian assistance, and eventually providing help “in the process leading toward self-government for the Iraqi people.”
  
  
• According to Reuters, EU leaders meeting in Athens agreed Wednesday that a forum drawing up a constitution for an enlarged EU should produce its draft text by mid-June. The dispatch also quotes Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis, host of celebrations in Athens to mark EU enlargement, saying there was general agreement on the need for a new EU foreign minister to combine responsibilities now shared between Javier Solana, who reports to member states, and Chris Patten, who sits in the Commission and controls the foreign aid budget. Such a figure would be Europe’s interlocutor with the United States and other third countries in major global crises.