10 April 2003
Reform or Regression: What's in Angola's Future?
(ICG Conflict Resolution Expert assesses Angola's first year of peace)
(910)
By Jessica Allen
Washington File Staff Writer
Washington -- What will Angola choose, peace and prosperity or bloody
violence and corruption? That was one of the questions posed by John
Prendergast, Co-Director of the Africa program for the International
Crisis Group (ICG) at a recent meeting assessing the first year of
peace in the southern African nation.
On April 8 Prendergast delivered a wake up call to diplomats,
Africanists, and government officials meeting at the Woodrow Wilson
International Center for Scholars to discuss Angola's first year of
peace following a 27-year civil war that killed thousands and
displaced millions.
While Angola "is finally in a position to realize the tremendous
potential that its natural wealth makes possible," Prendergast, a
former National Security Council Advisor on Africa, cautioned time is
of the essence. He said the Angolan government "must immediately
undertake political and economic reforms" because "if it delays and
obfuscates on the fundamental issues of transparency, diversification,
and pluralism, the country will likely be condemned to further decades
of poor governance and localized violence."
One problem, said the conflict expert, was that the ruling Popular
Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA). Angola has a history of
one-party rule and corruption that will be a major obstacle to
overcome if political and economic reforms are to take hold in the
nation of more than 10 million people.
Reform itself is an uphill struggle, he indicated, because Angola's
economic and political systems have adapted so much to corruption that
they almost automatically undermine any institutional-driven tendency
to embrace reform. Political and economic systems in Angola have been
tailored to benefit the personal interests of those in power and the
country's most wealthy segment, Prendergast explained.
In addition, he added, "A history of external intervention and
exploitation has left the government resistant to meeting some
international preconditions for engagement and aid, things the people
of Angola are desperate for." Regional and ethnic inequalities and the
memories of countless human rights atrocities serve to further
complicate matters and make reconciliation more difficult.
With those challenges in mind, Prendergast offered several
recommendations he believes would help to further the reform process
in Angola.
To begin with, he said it was essential to have programs that worked
with the Angolan government to improve the existing national and
provincial administrations. In order to accomplish this task, the
Africa expert, said that Angola "should give priority to health and
education, agricultural development, and support for
micro-enterprise."
He also said the government "should invest in basic infrastructure, in
order to help move goods and people around the country and extend the
state administration in the areas such as the judiciary and law
enforcement."
The government must also "begin to create the architecture for the
upcoming presidential election by: setting a date, accelerating the
constitutional reform process, and clarifying electoral laws and other
related actions. Civil society organizations and political parties
must be given the space to organize, operate, and campaign freely
throughout the provinces," says Prendergast.
According to Africa expert, following the brutal civil war, there is
still a great potential for instability to reoccur. "To prevent a
possible an outbreak of warlordism, the Angolan government must
adequately respond to the needs of the displaced and insurgents form
the National Front for the Liberation of Angola (UNITA)."
On rehabilitating the economy, work must be done to diversify beyond
the oil sector, and specific steps taken to make Angola eligible for
participation in the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), an
economic program offered by the U.S. to spur economic development in
African countries. A restructuring of investment and commercial codes
must also occur, he said.
Prendergast further advised the government "to develop an equitable,
consistent and transparent land use policy that balances agri-business
and smallholders. The policy should also avoid the stereotypical
situation in which coast residents own much of the land in the
interior.
"A poverty reduction strategy that lays the groundwork for structural
adjustments, and that will benefit all Angolans, not only the wealthy"
should also be on Angola's agenda, says Prendergast.
It is also necessary for Angola to work with the IMF on a reform
program, so that economic management will be more transparent,
especially in the oil sector. Angola must "demonstrate a commitment to
this objective by giving the newly established 'accountability court'
real enforcement power, particularly for large public companies," says
Prendergast.
To international entities in a position to help Angola, Prendergast
suggested they "fully fund an agricultural assistance program in
advance of the September 2003 planting season, advocate the government
to set a date for the upcoming presidential election, provide
increased assistance for political party development and civil society
capacity building, and encourage Angola to stay focused on the
threshold steps to improve transparency and accountability set by the
IMF."
Individual investors can also play an important role in helping
Angola, says Prendergast, who encouraged investors to make cooperative
efforts with Angola's government to achieve greater transparency
surrounding the business practices of the major oil companies
investing in the country.
While the solution to Angola's problems must ultimately in the hands
of Angolans, Prendergast reminded his audience: "Bringing reform to a
broken nation is extremely difficult and needs the assistance and
support of donor governments, the United Nations, and international
financial institutions."
(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International
Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site:
http://usinfo.state.gov)
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