Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

7 April 2003

NATO

• According to AFP, Polish Prime Minister Miller told a joint conference with his Turkish counterpart Erdogan in Ankara Monday that Poland would send 50 chemical and biological weapons experts as part of measures adopted by NATO to help defend Turkey against a possible Iraqi attack. Miller reportedly indicated that the team would be allowed to operate only on Turkish territory. He did not say when it would arrive.

IRAQ

• The Washington Post reports that in a surprise move, the United States has begun airlifting hundreds of members of an Iraqi exile group to southern Iraq, vanguard elements of what a Pentagon officers said would form the basis of a new Iraqi army. According to the newspaper, the soldiers belong to the Iraqi National Congress (INC) and are being led by Ahmed Chalabi, a London-based former banker and principal founder of the INC. Chalabi was among those flown to the southern Iraqi city of Nasiriyah from Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq. The lightly armed force is reportedly prepared to perform a variety of missions, from delivering humanitarian aid to hunting down supporters of President Saddam Hussein. The newspaper notes that the INC’s group unexpected arrival in southern Iraq followed a Pentagon announcement last week that a program based in Hungary to train Iraqi expatriates as guides, translators and security officers had been suspended. Defense officials said that fewer than 100 candidates completed the course, despite an initial goal of at least 1,000, adds the article.

The advance of coalition troops in Iraq is increasingly shifting the focus to post-war Iraq.
Asking whether NATO could play a post-war role in Iraq, AFP considers that the question is currently overshadowed by debate over what the UN will or will not do. The dispatch remarks, however, that some commentators say the NATO question may come to a head sooner rather than later.
“It seems out of the question for most European countries to accept a NATO role in Iraq if it is not backed by an explicit UN mandate,” says a related article in Le Monde. But, the newspaper observes, the issue, which Foreign Minister de Villepin called “premature,” will nonetheless be the subject of preliminary discussions between NATO members.
Expressing support for a possible NATO role, Financial Times Deutschland, April 3, noted that on one hand, it could overcome the rift between advocates of the war and skeptics. On the other, NATO’s participation in Iraq’s reconstruction would be advantageous for Europe. It would get a lever for the presentation of its proposals. The article continued: “There is consensus among the EU members that the UN has to play a central role after the war. Germany is interested in this. The government is planning to entrust NATO with the Bundeswehr’s lead role in Afghanistan. An Iraq mission of the Alliance would follow the same logic. NATO would be strengthened by this. Successful missions in Iraq and Afghanistan would provide the Alliance with a useful task and secure the continued existence of the most important strategic link.”
Meanwhile, in an interview with Frankfurter Rundschau, Defense Minister Struck denied press reports claiming that Germany is planning to take part in a possible UN mission in Iraq with 1,500 soldiers. Based on sources in German military circles, Die Welt, April 5, claimed that the Bundeswehr leadership was examining the possibility of sending up to 1,500 German soldiers to Iraq as part of a UN mission. The sources reportedly indicated, however, that this would only be possible if other foreign deployments were either massively scaled back or ended. “People have Bosnia in mind, where 1,400 German soldiers are currently deployed in the framework of SFOR,” the daily asserted, adding: “The possible timing for a withdrawal of the Bundeswehr from Bosnia would be favorable: NATO will discuss the future of the SFOR mandate in June. Even before the Iraq war, Defense Minister Struck had talked about the possibility of reducing the German troops in Bosnia.” The sources were further quoted saying that in view of the Bundeswehr’s shortage of military pilots, communication and medical personnel, the possibility was being weighed of offering the UN a package solution in cooperation with other European countries. “The Germans would provide primarily infantry and engineering troops, while specialists like communication and medical personnel would come from friendly nations. These ideas have, however, not yet been discussed within NATO,” added the article.

BALKANS

• AP reports Serbia’s new Prime Minister Zivkovic pledged Monday to arrest all war crimes suspects wanted by the ICTY. “We have a responsibility … to wrap up cooperation with … the tribunal, so we can say that our obligation toward that international court has been fulfilled,” he said. He reportedly acknowledged that “certain individuals within the army” might have provided protection for former Bosnian Serb military leader Mladic. He added that the recent removal of the army intelligence chief, as well as the appointment of a new defense minister, pave the way for full control over the military.