U.S. Air Force Uses New Tools to Minimize Civilian Casualties
(Avoiding unintentional damage figures into targeting from start) (1830) By David Anthony Denny Washington File Staff Writer Langley Air Force Base, Virginia -- The art and science of minimizing both civilian casualties and the destruction of cultural sites, homes, businesses, schools, hospitals, and other non-military assets in warfare has come a remarkably long way in little more than half a century, especially in the area of air warfare. In World War II, 60 million people, civilians and combatants alike, were killed. The combined U.S. and British air campaigns in Europe and Japan alone are thought to have killed more than a million civilians. On occasion, tens of thousands of civilians perished in a single night bombing raid involving hundreds of bombers flying over Dresden, Germany, and Tokyo, to give the two most notable examples. Then, at the very end of that war, single bombers dropping single nuclear bombs caused scores of thousands of civilian deaths in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. These days, discussions about civilian casualties involve much-reduced orders of magnitude. A recent Washington Post story, for example, cited a figure of 500 civilians killed in Serbia after 78 days of NATO air strikes in 1999. In Afghanistan in 2001-02, a figure of 800 civilian deaths is cited. Major General David Deptula, the director of plans and programs at Air Combat Command Headquarters at Langley Air Force Base in Hampton, Virginia, said even the figure of 800 dead in Afghanistan "sounds high to me." Deptula is in a position to know because he served as director of the air operations center for the first three months the Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan. Deptula is skeptical because avoiding civilian casualties and unintentional, or collateral, damage is a key consideration of every attack assignment contemplated by U.S. air forces, right from the initiation of the planning process, days, weeks, months or even years before a strike occurs. He knows that the imperative to cause as little damage and as little loss of life as possible is part of a larger concept that has evolved in the Air Force's thinking. Deptula calls that way of thinking "effects-based operations." Neither a process, nor a system, nor even a methodology, says Deptula, it is "more of a way of thinking, in the broadest sense," he said. "Ultimately, my definition of the goal of warfare is to be able to have an adversary act in accordance with U.S. strategic interests. In a perfect world, I'd like to be able to get that adversary to act in accordance with our strategic interests without [him or her] even knowing that they've been acted upon," Deptula said. Precision, he says, is the key to effects-based operations, and has thus allowed the Air Force to be highly discriminating as it targets. "In World War II, it took us a thousand aircraft -- bombers, B-17s -- carrying approximately 9,000 bombs to achieve the effect that in the Gulf War one airplane and one bomb could do. An F-117 with a laser-guided bomb (LGB) could do what a thousand-plane raid could do in World War II. And the reason is: precision. The circular error probability (CEP) of a weapon in World War II was on the order of half a mile -- 3,000 feet. The CEP of an LGB is on the order of 10 feet. So you can see what you can do with precision, which dramatically increased our capability of minimized damage and destruction," Deptula said. Deptula, who was also the principal air planner for the Gulf War in 1991, gave a cogent example from that war to demonstrate effects-based operations. The Iraqis had 26 electric power plants that were listed on the U.S. and coalition target list. Partway through the air campaign, Deptula said intelligence analysts came to him and noted that operations against the electric power facilities had not been successfully carried out. Deptula's response was, "That's right. I'd stopped targeting or putting [electricity sites] on the target master attack plan 10 days prior because there weren't any electrons flowing in the Iraqi power grid. The issue is not destruction of the sites; the issue is making sure the electricity wasn't flowing. "In some cases, we had communications intelligence that let us know that some of the power plant directors figured out early on the way to avoid getting hit was to shut down their plants. Which," Deptula noted, "from a planner's perspective, is wonderful. That's exactly what I want to have happen." More recently, Deptula noted that as U.S. and coalition forces patrol the Northern and Southern No-Fly Zones over Iraq (Deptula was commander of Operation Northern Watch from 1998 to 1999) they have had to contend with Iraqis parking mobile surface-to-air missile systems in close proximity to civilian sites. The solution? "I began using inert weapons -- cement bombs," Deptula said. "I can't use a 500-pound, high-explosive bomb against a missile launcher if it's parked within X-thousand feet of any civilian facility. But if I've got good enough precision, and I can hit it with 500 pounds of concrete, that does the trick. So we began doing that," Deptula said. Target planners have plenty of help, including input from military lawyers and intelligence analysts. For Brigadier General Charles Dunlap, staff judge advocate at Air Combat Command, it's a matter of being on the right side of the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC). Dunlap says law "is becoming a (and sometimes 'the') key factor influencing the conduct of combat air operations." LOAC draws guidance from customary international law and international agreements. Dunlap points out that not all combatants are parties to the same international agreements which can cause problems. Under the United Nations Charter, he said, force is authorized in two situations: self defense; and when authorized by the Security Council. Dunlap noted that "For democracies waging modern war, LOAC is indispensable for military success." He referred to the Prussian military philosopher, Carl von Clausewitz, who described a "remarkable trinity" connecting the government to the people to the military. All three are needed to wage war successfully, according to Clausewitz. "Adversaries fighting today's democracies will use the fact or perception of LOAC violations to shatter Clausewitz's 'remarkable trinity' by separating the people from their military and their government," Dunlap said. The February issue of Air Force Magazine put it this way: "A perception of poor conduct by a belligerent erodes the just cause of the war and undermines its legitimacy because causing unnecessary deaths or damage is seen as counter to international norms and customs. In modern coalition warfare, attention to the law of war is a strategic imperative." This has led to a situation in which U.S. adversaries can be expected to wage what Dunlap calls "lawfare," by which he means specific strategies designed to exploit sensitivity to casualties by creating the perception of a violation of the law of war. He points to the 2002 edition of Jane's World Armies, in which Editor Charles Heyman predicts that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein "is going to make sure civilians get killed. And he is going to make sure that all over the world, there are pictures of weeping Iraqi mothers and their dead babies. That's part and parcel of his game." Dunlap notes that military lawyers play an increasingly important role in shaping the decisions that a commander makes to attack or avoid specific targets. Dunlap pointed out that the laws of war do not forbid civilian casualties or damage to civilian objects, but they call for careful discrimination and proportionality. In this case, discrimination means doing everything feasible to avoid striking civilians and civilian objects, he said. Discrimination includes the increasingly thorny issue of who is a civilian and who is a combatant. Voluntary and involuntary human shields, military contractors and even armed tribesmen all might figure into the legal calculations during possible military action in Iraq. Dunlap says proportionality involves a balancing test in which anticipated harm to non-combatants and their property must not be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated. Risks of unintentional damage can sometimes be mitigated by tactics, sometimes by choice of weapon. This is where intelligence has a role in determining which targets are militarily valuable and how best to attack those that meet that test. Colonel Donald Hudson is deputy chief of intelligence at Air Combat Command headquarters at Langley. He points out that target sets can be started years before a site is attacked, with what is called a standard engagement plan that is continually updated, especially once action is imminent. Target folders are examined to see what is in proximity to the target, and targeters are still examining the intended target right up to the start of the mission, he said. A key question in updating target information is: What is the enemy doing to try to shield the target? For Colonel Hudson and his fellow analysts, if collateral damage is a potential problem with a target, they have a new tool they can employ to help decision-making. A computer software program called the Fast Assessment Strike Tool -- Collateral Damage (FAST-CD)looks at the target, its surrounding terrain, the direction and angle of attack, and the particular characteristics of the munition proposed for the strike and generates an image of an irregular-shaped "probable damage field" that looks somewhat like insects hitting a car windshield at high speed. The value of the program, a version of which was first used for planning purposes in Operation Desert Fox (1998), is its speed. It now takes as little as 15-to-30 minutes to generate a predicted result using FAST-CD, instead of the two hours to several days that was once required. If it looks like collateral damage can't be avoided, then intelligence analysts recommend against a strike to the joint force commander, according to Hudson. "And lawyers sit next to us throughout" the process, he added. Notwithstanding the combination of the mindset of effects-based operations, the scrupulous adherence to the law of armed conflict, and the latest high-technology computer software to predict outcomes, warfighting "remains an art," not a science, lawyer Dunlap said. "Some things reside in the mind of the commander," he said. The tools that allow the minimization of civilian casualties and collateral damage "are not a substitute" for decisions taken by the commander, he said. And as several intelligence analysts noted, there is still the human factor of a pilot who is not infallible and must make split-second decisions, and who operates mechanical or sensitive electronic equipment that can hiccup under stressful combat conditions. For these reasons, air combat professionals don't expect the issue of civilian casualties and collateral damage to be perfectly resolved anytime soon -- if ever. (The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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