13 March 2003
The Horn of Africa: How Does Somaliland Fit?
(Excerpts of Amb. D. Shinn paper in Sweden) (1130)
[Former U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia David Shinn delivered a paper on
the current status of Somaliland at a Conference in Umea, Sweden on
March 8. His analyses are his own and should not be construed to
reflect assessments and policies of the U.S. Government.]
Following are excerpts from Amb. Shinn's paper:
(begin text)
So long as the rest of Somalia remains a failed state, it is
unreasonable to expect peaceful Somaliland to join willingly with its
compatriots to the south. Somaliland must now convince the rest of the
world, and especially the members of the African Union, that its case
is special and deserves support.
The Central Committee of the Somali National Movement (SNM) assembled
in Burao in May 1991 and declared unilaterally that Somaliland would
henceforth become the independent Republic of Somaliland.
So far, Somaliland has had no success in convincing the Assembly of
the African Union that its independence should be accepted and that it
should be granted membership. Important countries like South Africa,
Algeria and Senegal, if convinced of the merits of Somaliland's case,
could make an important difference.
In the meantime, Somaliland opted not to participate in the process
aimed at unifying Somali factions that was initiated by the government
of Djibouti in 2000 in the Djiboutian town of Arta. The Arta
Conference resulted in creation of the Transitional National
Government (TNG) that took up residence in North Mogadishu and claimed
to represent all of Somalia, including Somaliland. The TNG occupied
Somalia's seats at the United Nations, the Organization of African
Unity (now the African Union), and the Arab League. Somaliland
continues to reject both the Arta process and the government it
created, arguing that the independence of Somaliland is nonnegotiable.
For the same reason it is boycotting the Somali peace process that
began last year in Kenya.
Somaliland and its Neighbors
Although not perfect, Somaliland has done amazingly well in managing
the electoral process. Continued progress towards democratization,
including free and fair elections, will help to convince the
international community of Somaliland's bona fides as an independent
state. One area that requires constant attention is the suppression of
corruption. Although corruption is pervasive in Somaliland, the
amounts involved appear to be modest and its overall record may well
be better than is the case in most developing countries.
As Somaliland continues to build democratic institutions, one of the
critical areas that require attention is a free press. There are few
institutions that are more important at the early stages of developing
democracy than a vigorous and open press.
Somaliland sees Ethiopia as an ally in its quest for support and
recognition. Although Ethiopia understands that a stable, peaceful and
independent Somaliland is in its interest, it is unwilling to be the
first to recognize the government in Hargeisa. Somalia would
immediately attribute nefarious motives to Ethiopian recognition of
Somaliland, arguing that it wishes to balkanize Somalia and weaken
Somali unity.
There are important clan ties between Somalilanders and the some 60
percent of the Djiboutian population that is Somali. Relations between
Somaliland and Djibouti are correct and improving.
Saudi Arabia poses a major dilemma for Somaliland. A significant
financial backer of the TNG and supporter of it within the Arab
League, Saudi Arabia was traditionally the major importer of
Somaliland livestock. For the better part of the last five years,
Saudi Arabia has banned livestock from Somaliland on the grounds that
it might be infected with Rift Valley Fever. Somaliland denies the
charges, and there does not appear to be any current scientific
evidence to support the claim.
In the meantime, the Saudi ban is doing grievous damage to the
Somaliland economy. The ban has harmed nearly every kind of employment
in the country-pastoralists, truck drivers, livestock traders, animal
health staff, brokers, port employees and private business people.
In more recent years, Egypt has been a supporter of Somali unity and a
strong Somali state that can serve as a counterweight to Ethiopia.
Eighty-six percent of the water reaching the Aswan Dam in Egypt
emanates from Ethiopia. The Nile River is, of course, Egypt's
lifeline, and the leadership in Cairo wants to maintain maximum
leverage over Ethiopia. A unified Somalia that might one day reassert
its claims to Somali-inhabited areas of Ethiopia and has close links
to Egypt would add to this leverage. As a result, Egypt is one of five
countries that has recognized the TNG and opposes an independent
Somaliland.
Eritrea, which received de facto independence from Ethiopia in 1991
and de jure independence in 1993, seemingly is a country that would be
sympathetic to Somaliland's independence. On the contrary, it supports
the unity of Somalia and is one of five nations to recognize the TNG
in Mogadishu. Like Egypt, Eritrea also sees a strong and unified
Somalia as a counterweight to Ethiopia.
Sudan's policy on Somaliland is especially intriguing. Sudan has
traditionally supported Somali unity and is one of the five countries
that recognized the TNG in Mogadishu. Sudan has been dealing with its
own civil war since 1983 and does not wish to take any step that would
provide additional justification for an independent southern Sudan.
Acceptance of an independent Somaliland might weaken its own case for
Sudanese unity.
Like Ethiopia, Kenya is primarily interested in a peaceful and
friendly neighbor that does not export refugees and is in complete
control of its borders. Kenya is also concerned that terrorist acts in
Nairobi and Mombasa may have had some support from elements in
Somalia. At the same time, Kenya does not want a strong neighbor that
one day revives the Greater Somalia concept. For this reason, it is
probably quietly sympathetic with an independent Somaliland. But as
long as it is trying to solve the larger issue of peace in Somalia, it
must remain completely neutral.
Somaliland and the United Nations
Somaliland is deeply disappointed that the United Nations played a key
role in the process that led to the creation of the TNG and then
allowed it to take Somalia's seat in the General Assembly. Somaliland
also has a bad memory of the UN Mission to Somalia (UNOSOM) in the
early and mid-1990s. UNOSOM spent hundreds of millions of dollars in
Somalia to end a famine and engage in nation building, but took
virtually no interest in Somaliland. For several years, UNOSOM
officials did not even visit Somaliland.
Somaliland and the Donor Community
Bilateral donors have not been very forthcoming in providing
assistance to Somaliland. Some probably shy away for fear that
provision of assistance connotes diplomatic recognition. That concern
can be avoided, however, by channeling assistance through
international and indigenous nongovernmental organizations.
Somaliland is an excellent choice for increased rehabilitation and
development assistance.
(end text)
(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S.
Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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