Military

DATE=3/12/03

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=JANUSZ BUGAJSKI

NUMBER=3-586

BYLINE=SUSAN YACKEE

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

/// EDITORS: THIS INTERVIEW IS AVAILABLE IN DALET UNDER SOD/ENGLISH NEWS NOW INTERVIEWS IN THE FOLDER FOR TODAY OR YESTERDAY ///

INTRO: Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic has been assassinated in a shooting outside the main government building in central Belgrade. Deputy Prime Minister Nebojsa Covic formally announced the death. He said the government had urged Acting President Natasa Micic to declare a state of emergency throughout Serbia in response. Mr. Djindjic played a key role in the popular revolt in October, 2000, that toppled former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic.

V-O-A's Susan Yackee spoke about what the assassination means for Serbia with Janusz Bugajski ('yahn-itch boo-'gie-skee) with the Washington think-tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies.:

MR. BUGAJSKI: Serbia is in the midst of a major political crisis. Not only don't they have a president -- they couldn't elect one -- but now the Prime Minister has been killed. It's a crisis because there is no political leadership, because the most pro-reformist, pro-Western element in Belgrade is now deceased. It throws open the possibility of new elections, in which nationalists and former socialists would score a lot better. And it creates a situation of lawlessness not only in Serbia but vis-à-vis the region; in other words, Serbia's relations with its neighbors are also going to be destabilized as a result. So, it's a major crisis, I would say, for the central states in the central Balkans.

MS. YACKEE: Perhaps you will review for us some of the contributions the Prime Minister had made.

MR. BUGAJSKI: Well, of all the politicians in Serbia, he was the one that wanted to open up the economy. He was very much for a pro-market system. Secondly, he was intent on eliminating some of the war criminals, including Milosevic, which may of course be one of the reasons somebody sought revenge. He also wanted to reform the military along Western standards, which is another possibility that military elements may have eliminated him. He also wanted to clean up house politically, which is another reason maybe that some of the nationalists and former socialists were out to get him.

So, on all those scores, in all the reforms paths he took, he made enemies, and one or more in combination finally got him.

MS. YACKEE: Is there anybody that might be able to step into this position?

MR. BUGAJSKI: Well, nobody can step in legitimately without an election. There could be a caretaker prime minister, and I think there will be. But I think what this will mean there will be new parliamentary elections to elect a new government. The most popular politician in the moment is Vojislav Kostunica, who just lost his job, interestingly enough, as Yugoslav President and is looking for a job. Maybe this is the one that is being prepared for him.

I would imagine, in general, though, that there is going to be a period of a great deal of instability, a great deal of concern, I would say, in Serbia and amongst its neighbors, whether the country will stay politically stable.

CLOSE: Janusz Bugajski, Director of East European Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies here in Washington.

VNN/DAB