Military

DATE=3/11/03

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=LOUIS KLAREVAS

NUMBER=3-584

BYLINE=REBECCA WARD

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

/// EDITORS: THIS INTERVIEW IS AVAILABLE IN DALET UNDER SOD/ENGLISH NEWS NOW INTERVIEWS IN THE FOLDER FOR TODAY OR YESTERDAY ///

Talks on resolving the division of Cyprus have collapsed after Greek and Turkish community leaders failed to agree on a United Nations power-sharing accord. U-N Secretary-General Kofi Annan announced the failure early today following marathon talks in The Hague with Cyprus President Tassos Papadopoulos and Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash.

Louis Klarevas (Kluh REE vis) is a Defense Analysis Research Fellow at the Hellenic Observatory at the London School of Economics. He says the Cyprus dilemma is certain to have a negative impact on Turkey's bid to join the European Union.

MR. KLAREVAS: Unless there is a unified Cyprus, or at least a settled Cyprus, going into the E-U, you're going to have a condition where you have an applicant looking for membership in the European Union and that applicant is going to be at tremendous security odds with a current member -- that current member being Cyprus, which will join in 2004. And most likely, going further into the future or even beyond 2004, you're going to have one E-U. country which is "occupied" by military forces of an applicant country -- in this case, it being Turkey.

The second problem, of course, is that you're going to have Turkey asking to join the E-U. And it's going to be one of these awkward situations where you have a country that wishes to join the E-U, which is a union of however many number of countries, and one of those countries that is in there -- it being Cyprus -- is not recognized the way the rest of the international community recognizes it; it is not recognized that way by Turkey. And that is going to create another problem for Turkey.

MS. WARD: If Turkey's bid into the European Union could be tainted by the failure to reach an agreement on Cyprus, why hasn't Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash signed off on an agreement?

MR. KLAREVAS: I guess the answer there really requires us to go a little bit into speculation but, for sure, one problem which Denktash himself has raised is: What will you do with the resettlement of people, and how will that impact Turkish Cypriots?

His quote today was that it will affect the lives of 100,000 Turkish Cypriots, who will have to be relocated. And I have to ask, when he says 100,000, does he mean pure Turkish Cypriots or does he mean Turkish settlers living in Northern Cyprus?

Certainly, I do believe that tens of thousands, if not 100,000 people, will be affected by any kind of peace plan that allows for relocation of people living in Northern Cyprus in particular locales since 1974. That is obviously a pressing problem that he is going to have to deal with. But the logic behind Kofi Annan's plan was that this would be an issue that would be dealt with by the people of Northern Cyprus rather than by just one individual leader. And that was the whole idea behind a referendum, a referendum that was to take place on both sides, where the citizens of Cyprus would determine their own future rather than, say, a handful of political leaders from both sides.

MS. WARD: And Mr. Denktash has not allowed that referendum to take place in the Turkish Cypriot area; why?

MR. KLAREVAS: I can only tell you what he said on the record, which is that he is concerned with some of the provisions that are involved. I think what is interesting is what you see in Kofi Annan's statement, which he released after the failure of the talks today. He had this line in there where he said that Mr. Denktash answered that he was not prepared to agree to put the plan to referendum. And then he went on to point out that Denktash had fundamental objections to the plan on basic points.

I think that was a subtle way for Kofi Annan to say that, basically, Denktash wanted to restart things from scratch and try to get larger concessions out of the peace talks, which of course did not happen and therefore the peace talks failed.

MS. WARD: And what happens now? Is the proposal just off the table now?

MR. KLAREVAS: In a way, the proposal is off the table, but that's the official view. Kofi Annan has said that he is ordering DeSoto to leave and to shut down the good offices of the representative of the Secretary-General. The reality is that there is no way this proposal is off the table.

And we have to remember, even though the accession treaty is being signed in April of 2003, Cyprus doesn't really join the E-U until 2004. That is a long window. I think, in my personal view, it was unrealistic to expect that, in a week, we would have been able to come up with a solution to the Cyprus problem, and then, within less than a few more weeks, it would have been put to a referendum and everything would have been solved, i's dotted, t's crossed. I think you need a lot of time.

And I think that there is a large window now, and maybe even will relieve some of the pressure that was on the leaders from both communities in Cyprus. The window now goes to 2004, somewhere in the late spring, early summer, I would argue. And that is plenty of time to sit down and try to work, if you will, with the current plan that is put forth. Maybe there can be some adjustments and maybe you will get Rauf Denktash to come aboard. Although I would probably speculate that you will get him to come on board if there is pressure from Ankara on Denktash directly to accept the major provisions in the Kofi Annan plan.

(End of interview.)

Louis Klarevas (Kluh REE vis) is a Defense Analysis Research Fellow at the Hellenic Observatory at the London School of Economics. Officials in Turkey and Greece have expressed hope that the impasse over Cyprus can still be broken.

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