Military

DATE=3/7/03

BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-53203

TITLE=TURKEY / ERDOGAN

BYLINE=ROGER WILKISON

DATELINE=BRUSSELS

CONTENT=

INTRO: Turkey's leading politician, once barred from taking office for his Islamist views, is set to return to political office with an expected victory in a parliamentary by-election on Sunday. Most observers believe he will soon thereafter become prime minister. V-O-A Correspondent Roger Wilkison, who recently visited Turkey, reports the latest move by Recep Tayyip Erdogan comes at a crucial time for both Turkey and his ruling Justice and Development Party.

TEXT: Mr. Erdogan is running for a parliamentary seat in the southeastern Turkish town of Siirt, where local irregularities forced the cancellation of voting last November. It was then that Mr. Erdogan's party won a majority in nationwide elections.

At the time, Mr. Erdogan, a former mayor of Istanbul, was prohibited by the courts from seeking office because of a previous conviction for inciting religious hatred.

Ironically, it was in the same town of Siirt, in 1997, that Mr. Erdogan recited a poem with religious overtones at a political rally that got him into trouble with Turkey's fiercely secular military and bureaucratic establishment.

He was convicted on sedition charges, and sent to jail for four months. That conviction barred him from running for parliament last November. But he was still able to campaign, and he criss-crossed the country rallying support from an electorate fed-up with corruption and incompetence of Turkey's traditional parties. His efforts were rewarded when the untested Justice and Development Party was swept to power.

One of the first things his party's deputies did after capturing parliament was to amend the constitutional article under which he was convicted. So, if he wins one of the three seats up for grabs in Siirt, it is assumed that he will be allowed to enter the legislature and, shortly thereafter, take over the prime minister's job from his trusted ally, Abdullah Gul.

Ilnur Cevik, the editor of the Turkish Daily News, an English-language newspaper, says Mr. Erdogan must become the prime minister, because the Turkish people want him to be accountable for his pledges to root out corruption and improve the economy.

/// CEVIK ACT ///

The people say, 'look, Tayyip made these promises to me. I voted for him. Now, he has to be prime minister, so that, if the government does not deliver, I hold him accountable for all this.' No one can ask for accountability from Tayyip when he can't even be prime minister. So, he has to be prime minister. Plus, I think he has to be there so he puts his own authority on the government.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Erdogan's leadership, and even his charisma, came into question last week, when more than a quarter of his own party's deputies voted against his request that U-S troops be allowed to deploy in Turkey for a possible attack against Iraq. His main task now will be to reassert his control over those rebellious lawmakers to make sure that, if and when the government submits another such request for approval, they will tow the party line. But that will not be easy in a country where over 90 percent of the population opposes a war on Iraq.

Though Mr. Erdogan is still seen by the military as a closet Islamist, he and the generals do share the view that Turkey cannot afford to wreck its relationship with its longtime ally, the United States. Turkey needs the aid Washington promised it in exchange for deploying its troops to help cover any damage to its fragile economy a war might cause. And it also wants a say in what a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq would look like. It is especially fearful that Iraqi Kurds might attempt to break away from Iraq, a prospect that could encourage separatism among Turkey's Kurds.

Where Mr. Erdogan and the military do differ is on the issue of Cyprus. Mr. Erdogan supports a U-N plan for reunification of the island, so that both Greek and Turkish Cypriots can enter the European Union next year. But the generals see Turkey's military presence on Cyprus as a strategic asset, and are reluctant to prod Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash to agree to the U-N deal, even if that means that Turkish Cypriots will be left out of the European Union. This hurts Turkey's own chances of joining the E-U, which is one of Mr. Erdogan's goals.

/// OPT /// Murat Yetkin, a columnist for the Turkish daily Radikal, says the Justice and Development party government is facing an unprecedented series of crises.

/// YETKIN ACT ///

This government took power in such circumstances that Turkey has never faced -- a deep international, domestic, political and economic crisis, (all) at once -- since its establishment. We have never experienced such a deep crisis before. So, this is unfortunate. On (the) one hand, economic crisis, Iraq, Cyprus, E-U and these legislative problems all falls into one small period of time.

/// END ACT /// END OPT ///

Diplomats in Ankara say Mr. Erdogan will need all of his considerable political skills and powers of persuasion to unite his party and secure its hold on power in the weeks ahead. However, he chooses to deal with the most pressing issue -- whether or not to submit another motion to parliament allowing the deployment of U-S troops -- could have profound consequences for his country. And as a nearby war looms on the horizon, the Turkish establishment, which still views Mr. Erdogan with suspicion, will be watching his every move. (Signed)

NEB/RW/KL/TW/KBK