Military

DATE=02/19/03

TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP

TITLE=CHANGES IN SAUDI ARABIA

NUMBER=6-12831

BYLINE=ANDREW GUTHRIE

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS

TELEPHONE=619-3335

CONTENT=

INTRO: The New York Times has reported that after a major private discussion, the royal family of Saudi Arabia is contemplating substantial changes in the government. The article suggests that more democracy will be established and, among other things, the religious police will be curbed. We get a sampling now from V-O-A's ______________ in today's U-S Opinion Roundup.

TEXT: Reports that the family of Iban Saud, which has ruled Saudi Arabia for more than half a century, is contemplating some gradual political changes have been greeted with some interest in the editorial offices of many major U-S dailies. In the Rhode Island capital, The Providence Journal headlined this editorial: "Saudi winds of change?"

VOICE: According to the royal family, after the U-S and its allies deal with Saddam Hussein, Crown Prince Abdullah (the real ruler, not the ailing King Fahd) will ask the U-S to withdraw its military personnel from the kingdom. He then reportedly would initiate political reform phased in over a period of years. This would include election of representatives to provincial assemblies and a national parliament. But at the outset, at least, women would not be able to vote or run for office.

. Saudi Arabia's transformation is a big if. There are many issues that far more secularized Arab societies have had difficulty resolving. [But] .while democratization would be a long row to hoe in Saudi Arabia, its achievement would be a major advance for Saudis and the rest of us.

TEXT: New York's Daily News is more skeptical.

VOICE: The Saudi government says it opposes terrorism. It claims that reforms to address the problem are running apace. Why isn't muzzling this terror-monger among those reforms? The Saudis are aware of al-Sheik's venom. In November, the crown prince told the ranking Saudi clerics, the Grand Mufti included, to tone down the hate talks. . But warnings are meaningless if not followed by action. The Grand Mufti won't obey. And all the Saudis will do is note they have an embarrassing situation on their hands.

TEXT: The Boston Globe is more hopeful.

VOICE: Sometimes for things to stay the same, they have to change a little. Nowhere does an unelected family of hereditary rulers have a greater need to oversee top-down reforms than in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. One reason is self-interest: Change may be needed to perpetuate the family's power.

. if Saddam [Hussein] is removed from power and a representative govenrment in a unified Iraq replaces the Baathist police state, there will no longer be any grounds but military convenience for the perpetuation of a U-S military presence there. U-S bases offend religious sensibilities among some Saudis and have also become an insult to nationalist pride.

TEXT: Taking up that same argument, the Milwaukee [Wisconsin] Journal Sentinel adds:

VOICE: In fact, anger at the corruption of Arab governments is widespread among young intellectuals in the Arab world, not just in Saudi Arabia, but also in such secular Arab countries as Egypt. U-S support for these regimes accounts for much of the anti-American sentiment in the region - - as does this country's generally uncritical support for (Israel, including its harsh measures to suppress the Palestinian rebellion.

TEXT: The nearby Chicago Tribune looks at why Saudi Arabia is considering changing its ways.

VOICE: Several catalysts could be credited for these reformist rumbles. Falling world oil prices have hit the country hard. A younger generation of professionals trained in the West is restless. Islamic terrorists are angry with the Saudis for allowing American military bases on their soil. But the prospect of a post-Hussein Iraq next door, riven by internal feuds or under military occupation by the U-S, is fanning the movement toward democracy in Saudi Arabia.

TEXT: With that we conclude this sampling of comment on reports of political and social changes coming in Saudi Arabia.

NEB/ANG/MAR