Military

DATE=2/12/03

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=PIERRE ENGLEBERT

NUMBER=3-534

BYLINE=TOM CROSBY

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

/// EDITORS: THIS INTERVIEW IS AVAILABLE IN DALET UNDER SOD/ENGLISH NEWS NOW INTERVIEWS IN THE FOLDER FOR TODAY OR YESTERDAY ///

HOST: Ivory Coast's new prime minister...Seydou Diarra (SAY-doo dee-AIR-uh) has begun the difficult task of assembling a national unity government and ending the country's bloody civil war. Northern -based rebels who control half the country are threatening to resume the fight if they are not given the ministries of Interior and Defense as called for in a French-brokered peace agreement. Government supporters in Abidjan and the army have expressed outrage over the possibility the deal will give too much power to the rebels.

Pierre Englebert is an expert on political and economic development in Africa and the author of "State Legitimacy and Development in Africa." In a conversation with VOA's Tom Crosby...he said the new Ivorian prime minister has an unenviable task ahead:

MR. ENGLEBERT: He's kind of caught in between two constituencies there. Himself he is a Muslim from the north, and he used to be Prime Minister under General Guei, who was killed in the coup in September 2002. And so he is supposed to be some sort of a compromise man that the north could tolerate. But what the north does with him will depend on who he appoints in his government. And they're expecting to control at least the Interior and the Defense Ministries, which the south isn't willing to accept at this point.

I also think that now he may be able to go down to Abidjan, after President Gbagbo essentially appointed him today, but a few days ago he would have been ill advised to show up down there because they were violently against him. So, I think his status in the south is also very shaky, and it will all depend, essentially, on what government he ends up appointing.

MR. CROSBY: The question, too, is how big a role the rebels will play in this new government, isn't it? That's going to be critical.

MR. ENGLEBERT: That's right, it's very critical. There are some agreements from the Paris negotiation a week ago. The agreement from Paris essentially stated that all these factions, all the political parties, who were present at the roundtable should be represented fairly in the government. But it doesn't give any kind of detailed guideline or distribution of portfolio, so it's very shaky.

MR. CROSBY: Is it necessary, given how shaky things are, that the French continue to play a role in all of this?

MR. ENGLEBERT: Well, that's a good question. It depends on from whose perspective you look at it. It is probably necessary for the French. They may be concerned with losing all control over the local dynamics if they're not part of it. It may be necessary for President Gbagbo, even though he is not really the French's favorite politician there. He is the president and he's kind of the last guarantee of the integrity of the country. But it may not be necessary for the rebels. Eventually they may be better off without the French and walking all the way to Abidjan, which they seem to be capable of.

MR. CROSBY: What happens to President Gbagbo in all of this? Because so much attention is being given to the new Prime Minister, Seydou Diarra.

MR. ENGLEBERT: Now, bear in mind, President Gbagbo retains veto rights over any government appointment. So, he really retains essential power here. And there is supposed to be a transition period, and Prime Minister Diarra will not be eligible to run for president during that transition period, while Gbagbo would still be eligible. So, if he plays his cards well he may be able to work his way through this and then come back on top. But I think that he has polarized the country so badly that I'm not sure he would stand a chance in free and fair elections.

MR. CROSBY: Does the Prime Minister serve pretty much at the will of the President? In other words, does the President have the authority, given that appointment-making authority that you mentioned, to fire him if he deems fit?

MR. ENGLEBERT: Yes. So, who knows? I mean, there is no precedent here. So, they're experimenting. The idea is that the president should not be able to remove the prime minister, although he has control over the rest of the government. But of course Gbagbo will be able to rely on some sort of constitutional precedent over presidential powers and may manipulate his way to getting rid of him at some point or argue that maybe he didn't respect the letter or the spirit of the agreement.

If you look back to Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo, they're having this kind of problem, having these peace agreements and sending a prime minister, and then the president retains his executive privilege, and there is a level of confusion, if you will. And I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen in Ivory Coast.

MR. CROSBY: You used the word "experiment" a moment ago. And this indeed is a great experiment, isn't it?

MR. ENGLEBERT: It is. It's a huge experiment, both in terms of national reconciliation and in terms of the capacity of the state of the Ivory Coast to survive this. Last week, at some point, the rebels said if the Paris Accords do not get implemented, they should be pushed to the last corner, because they may decide to go ahead and declare autonomy in their home zone. So, that would be the end of Ivory Coast.

I'm not sure how serious they would be about that, frankly. I think they really want to be in Abidjan and they really want to share power. But yes, it is a crucial experiment. It's probably the most important moment in the country's history.

HOST: Pierre Englebert, an authority on African political and economic development, speaking from his office at Pomona College in California. Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo has said he will abide by the spirit of the accord negotiated in Paris. He has not said if the new government will include rebels. A spokesman for the president says Mr. Gbagbo will have the final say on who is chosen.

NEB/