Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

7 February 2003

IRAQ-NATO

• According to Reuters, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld said in Rome Friday “momentum is building” for possible war with Iraq. “Momentum is building” in favor of military action against Iraq while the “center of gravity is shifting in the (NATO) Alliance” away from older members France and Germany—who oppose the U.S. stance toward Iraq—and toward the new members in eastern Europe, who back Washington,” Rumsfeld reportedly said. The article claims that Rumsfeld will use an international security conference in Munich this weekend to argue that allowing more time for inspections makes sense only if Iraq was cooperating with the UN. Rumsfeld noted that “the center of gravity is shifting in the Alliance.” He told reporters that “the energy, the vitality and the enthusiasm” in NATO was now coming from former Soviet bloc members, says a related AFP dispatch. The report adds that asked whether Washington would move bases eastward from countries like Germany, which host the headquarters of U.S. forces in Europe, Rumsfeld acknowledged studies are under way of bases in Europe and the United States. “Where they might shift, I have no idea. Some might stay, some might shift to other places. Some might go back to the United States,” he reportedly said, adding: “At the end of the Cold War, the purpose of our forces around the world was to deter and defend from the Soviet Union. Today our threats are quite different. Just as everything else in the department has to be looked at, needless to say we have to look at how we are organized and trained to deal with these new threats.”
  

In a contribution to the Wall Street Journal, Vladimir Socor, senior fellow of the Washington-based Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies, opines that Rumsfeld’s recent remark that NATO’s center of gravity is moving toward the east merely states the obvious. “Without in any way detracting form the importance of NATO’s old members in good standing, the secretary’s comment underscores two new realities. First, NATO must retool militarily and politically for distant missions in Eurasia, where the threats originate. And, second, a large group of countries to the east of the old NATO are willing and able to contribute to the Alliance’s power-projection operations toward the east,” writes Socor. He concludes: “The NATO enlargement round announced at the Prague summit is proving to be the greatest strategic and political gain in the Alliance’s history. It needs to be completed with a follow-up round in the western Balkans and the strategically crucial South Caucasus.”

The delay in NATO’s decision on a defense pledge to Turkey is at the center of media interest.
Reuters reports France insisted Friday NATO should not begin boosting Turkey’s defenses in case of a war with Iraq, saying UN arms inspectors still needed more time to examine Iraq’s weapons program. Asked by Radio France Internationale if NATO could reach agreement on war preparations early next week, Defense Minister Alliot-Marie reportedly said: “This is not our view at all.”
NATO members have given Germany, France and Belgium “an ultimatum” to promise the U.S. and Turkey assistance by Monday for a possible war in Iraq, asserts the Financial Times Deutschland. Secretary of State Powell’s UN speech had triggered expectations that the Alliance could find its way back to unity regarding Iraq. However, the three opponents are sticking to their no-vote for the time being. In order to put pressure on the three NATO deviationists, Secretary General Robertson is making use of a trick known as “silence procedure” among diplomats. Only a veto from Berlin, Paris or Brussels could stop this process now, stresses the newspaper. It adds that on Thursday night, German government circles did not want to commit themselves on the issue. However, the newspaper continues, it was said that if France and Belgium were to continue their opposition, Berlin would do the same.
The Financial Times explains that the silence procedure, used by NATO for its most difficult decisions, means revised US. proposals will be adopted unless one of the 19 members breaks its silence. In that case, the newspaper warns, the discussion would be thrown open again and the Alliance exposed to a rift that would be very difficult to mend. The newspaper asserts that Washington has modified its request to NATO in order to help meet French and German objections. Reportedly, no peacekeeping role is now envisaged for the Alliance after any war. The United States has also assured Germany that the contribution would be “purely defensive” and ruled out use of any Alliance equipment against another country. The United States has also asked member states to make up any shortfalls in the Balkans if the United States, Britain or other countries need their troops stationed there to be used in any war against Iraq. The newspaper notes, however, that French officials said Paris might break the silence over the weekend.
“NATO is torn over weapons for the Turks,” writes the New York Times, stressing that the war issue is particularly sensitive in Belgium with national elections scheduled for May. At least two parties in the governing coalition have taken strong pacifist stands and are expected to oppose any steps by NATO related to a war in Iraq, the article remarks.

BALKANS

• According to AFP, Greek Defense Minister Papantoniou, whose country currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency, said Thursday that the EU’s first peacekeeping force will arrive in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia at the end of March. “The European Rapid Reaction Force is taking up its first mission at the end of March, replacing the international peacekeeping force in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia,” he reportedly said, without giving a specific date. The dispatch adds that around 450 peacekeepers will be welcomed in Skopje by Papantoniou and EU foreign policy chief Solana.