Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

4 February 2003

IRAQ

• According to Reuters, Turkish leader Erdogan on Tuesday braced deputies for a vote this week to open bases to U.S. forces, saying cooperation now could give Turkey a say in the make-up of any post-war Iraq. “The decisions we have to make concerning a possible war are not because we support war. When there is no chance left to block a war it means participating in re-establishing peace as soon as possible,” Erdogan reportedly told parliamentarians, adding: “The most important priority … is to be involved with the shape that northern Iraq takes. It is crucial that Turkey play a part in the decision-making.” The dispatch recalls that Ankara fears upheaval will provide northern Iraq, run by Kurds, an opportunity to cement is autonomy, which could stir unrest among Turkey’s Kurds, who mainly live near the Iraqi border.

NATO

• AP quotes NATO officials saying Tuesday that NATO Secretary General Robertson has postponed a visit to Bulgaria this week due to a busy schedule focusing on the Iraq crisis. The dispatch notes that the allies are this week again expected to discuss U.S. proposals to send AWACS aircraft and Patriot anti-missile units to Turkey as part of a limited support role in a U.S.-led war against Iraq. It adds that diplomats at NATO headquarters are expecting talks to intensify after Secretary of State Powell’s address to the UN Security Council Wednesday.

The perception of a deadlock within NATO regarding a U.S. request to advance the military planning for a possible Alliance role in a war against Iraq is prompting German daily Die Welt to argue that “NATO is gambling away its last chance.”
A war against Iraq could become the first test case for the new NATO—or the Alliance will really become irrelevant forever,” warned the newspaper, Feb. 3, adding: “NATO’s survival as an effective alliance depends on four countries that are currently blocking the plans of the Alliance: Germany, France, Belgium and Luxembourg.” The article continued: NATO officials think that the United States is not so much interested in receiving concrete promises. Rather, they want to get political support from the Alliance. The U.S. request is one piece of the strategic puzzle in Washington’s overall war planning. Washington depends on the provision of military bases and overflight rights by Ankara. In return, the U.S. wants to guarantee Turkey’s protection by the Alliance. Pondering how NATO could participate in a war against Iraq, the newspaper noted: “NATO officials said the U.S. request was only the first step. They said it was too early for the extreme case, i.e. invoking Article 5 to protect Turkey. One cannot activate Article 5 for preventive purposes. In the near future, it would be more realistic to activate Article 4, which envisages consultations in case of ‘a threat to the territorial integrity, the political independence or the security of a member of the Alliance.’” The article stressed, however, that the four skeptical NATO partners, above all Germany, are afraid that “the trauma of Sept. 11 and its repercussions for NATO might repeat itself.” But, it warned: “What was too early then might be too late today. American circles in Brussels say that ‘NATO is gambling away its last chance.’”
A related Wall Street Journal article observes that Germany is juggling war opposition with its duties as a NATO member. German concerns about deploying NATO surveillance planes to Turkey in the event of a war against Iraq reflect Berlin’s tricky balancing act between its opposition to war and its legal commitment to defend a NATO ally, stresses the newspaper, adding that Berlin is also hindering the Alliance’s preparations for a potential war. The newspaper continues: The U.S. has asked NATO for limited military assistance in the case of war, mostly related to the territorial defense of Turkey. To alert the Turks to any incoming threat, NATO is considering deploying its fleet of AWACS. Germany is worried that the planes may also be used to feed intelligence and target data to the U.S. invasion forces and thus overstep their purely defensive role. NATO’s AWACS are based in Germany. German soldiers make up about one third of their crews and the maintenance is handled almost exclusively by the Germans as well. Some Alliance officials predict logistical problems arising from this defense-offense debate. One NATO diplomat from Europe is quoted saying: “If the war begins, it would be very difficult (to separate the two) since the AWACS could look deep into Iraq.” The newspaper notes that the German government is also concerned about deploying Patriot missiles to Turkey.
Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, Feb. 2, claimed that the Federal government is not willing to station Patriot anti-missiles batteries in Turkey in case of a war against Iraq. There is concern within the coalition that television pictures about a transfer would call into question the government’s credibility regarding its opposition to the Iraq war, said the article, It asserted that a Bundestag decision would be necessary for the transfer, for which there is “probably no majority” in the coalition.

• AFP reports that at a news conference Monday, Defense Minister Juhasz announced the signing of a contract to buy 14 Gripen fighter aircraft from the Swedish group Saab in a bid to bring its outdated military up to NATO standards. According to the dispatch, Juhasz said the contract converts to a purchase agreement a 10-year lease contract struck by the former government in 2001. That lease contract was for 14 JAS-39 Gripen fighter aircraft for a total price of 178 billion forints (730 million euros). Under the terms of the current government’s new purchase contract, “we are to get 14 far more modern aircraft for 30 billion forints more, and they will remain in Hungary,” Juhasz reportedly said. He added that the new aircraft would be “of the latest generation, would grant full NATO interoperability, and the use of precision weapons.” It would also have greater weight capacity and the capability of mid-air refueling and ground targeting. Talks on the kind of arms equipping the planes “are still ongoing,” he noted. According to the dispatch, he added that Hungary would borrow from Sweden to finance the purchase, but declined to elaborate on details except that “the interests does not reach three percent” and that the costs of the loan are included in the extra amount of money Hungary would pay in the new contract.