Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

27 January 2003

IRAQ

• The Turkish General Staff and U.S. military officials have completed joint planning for a possible Iraq operation, said Istanbul’s Milliyet, Jan. 26. According to the newspaper, an agreement has been reached by which U.S. units will enter Iraq via the Habur border gate without being based in Turkey. A “northern front” plan, expected to be taken up at the National Security Council meeting on Jan. 31 and to go into effect if the National Assembly approves it, reportedly looks like this: American troops coming to Turkey will pass through the Habur border crossing by road and rail into Iraq without being stationed on Turkish soil. These units will be accompanied into northern Iraq by heavy weapons such as tanks, artillery and APCs. Centers will be set up in several areas in order to provide logistic support to the units that will serve at the front. The logistic units that will come over with the American units will serve in the border area. These areas will be set up on northern Iraqi soil near the border at places like Habur and Nusaybin. A headquarters will be set up in Diyarbakir to coordinate these centers. The newspaper further claimed that the ships that have set sail from the United States carrying close to 20,000 service personnel are on their way to the Mediterranean to meet up with another fleet of 28 vessels waiting for the green light from Turkey to “establish a bridgehead.” There are also alternative plans for these vessels to establish a bridgehead at Qatar in case Turkey fails to give approval, the newspaper added. The Stars and Stripes highlights that the Milliyet report “follows visits last week by the U.S. military chief of staff and the U.S. general in charge of NATO.” AFP, Jan. 24, observed that Gen. Jones met with Turkish military chief Gen. Oskok in Ankara Friday, amid U.S. pressure on Ankara to back a possible war in Iraq. The visit came hard on the heels of visits by U.S. military chief Gen. Myers and Britain’s Chief of Defense Staff Sir Michael Boyce, stressed the dispatch It quoted a Turkish army statement saying, however, that Gen. Jones focused talks on NATO issues and Iraq. “There was an exchange of views on NATO and regional questions,” the statement reportedly said, but gave no details.

NATO

• NATO members will this week again try to bridge their differences and respond to a U.S. request for military support in case of war with Iraq, reports AFP. The dispatch quotes unidentified NATO officials saying the Alliance will gauge international reaction to a report to be delivered later Monday by chief UN weapons inspectors Hans Blix to the Security Council.
  
  
• The NAC’s failure last week to back a U.S. request to advance the military planning for a possible Alliance role in a war against Iraq remains at the center of media interest.
  “Has the United States suffered its first revolt within the Alliance, an organization within which its power of influence usually guarantees it unfailing leadership?,” asked Le Monde, Jan. 26, explaining: At a meeting of NATO ambassador on Jan. 22, four countries obtained the indefinite deferral of a set of six measures that the United States and Turkey sought to have adopted in the framework of preparations for military intervention against Iraq. At this stage, it is difficult to know whether the incident will leave a mark or if it will be quickly forgotten due to the impeding conflict.” The newspaper expected, however, that if the scenario of war materializes, it is likely that the 19 NATO countries will grant Washington what they have just refused. The article agreed with NATO Secretary General Robertson that at this stage, it is simply a disagreement on the timetable and not in substance.
  Under the title, “The allies play hardball over Iraq,” the Financial Times, Jan. 25-26, remarked that “Paris and Berlin have helped delay a NATO decision to back the U.S. up in a war.” The article continued: “Defense Secretary Rumsfeld rounded on (Germany and France) dismissing them as ‘old Europe’ and claiming the continent’s political weight had shifted east of them to the largely pro-U.S. states of central Europe. This, plus a bout of anti-war demonstrations in Washington and Europe, must have had Saddam Hussein chortling with glee.” The newspaper stressed, however, that the disunity is hardly surprising. “Every leader is under pressure and none more so than President Bush. President Chirac is running with his public’s mood in siding with Germany. But once the warm glow of the Franco-German treaty anniversary fades, Chirac may revert to trying to accommodate the U.S. within the UN framework.”
  The Bush administration is entering a week of crucial decision-making on Iraq looking for ways to patch a damaging transatlantic rift that could jeopardize many of its longer-term foreign policy goals, including the war on terrorism, writes the Washington Post. In strictly military terms, the United States could almost certain win a second war in the Gulf without the participation of France and Germany. Politically and economically, however, the stakes are much higher, notes the newspaper, adding: Although it may be true that NATO’s center of gravity is shifting to the east, military analysts point out that France and Germany contributed many troops to peacekeeping efforts in the Balkans and could have a similar important role in stabilizing a post-Hussein Iraq.
  The Times remarks meanwhile that despite the continued criticism against the use of force, senior figures in the Bush administration insist that a broad alliance is taking shape behind the scene. Even France, which is openly hostile to the idea of a conflict, has dispatched its aircraft carrier the Charles de Gaulle to the Gulf. With a second UN resolution in place, it could even join the U.S.-led operation at the last minute, adds the newspaper.
  
  
• Die Welt, Jan. 25, asserted that the Bundeswehr is expecting with mistrust the new “Defense Policy Guidelines,” which Defense Minister Struck has announced for the spring. It is to be expected that, apart from a shift of focus toward foreign options, the “old” Bundeswehr as a classical army of armored vehicles will be given up in the new guidelines. The fleet of combat vehicles should largely be taken out of service. Struck is most anxious to reduce the number of combat vehicles as far as possible, said the newspaper. Only recently, the Polish army received German tanks, the newspaper noted and concluded: Distribution of tasks among the allies is the new strategy. Due to the fact that the German territory is no longer exposed to an immediate threat, the heavy motorized units should largely be dissolved.
  

ESDP-DSACEUR

• EU foreign ministers gave the final approval Monday for the EU’s first military mission—a takeover of the small NATO-peacekeeping operation in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, writes AP. The dispatch adds that the agreement allows military planners to begin preparations for the takeover, although no exact date was set for the start of the EU operation itself. It stresses, that Adm. Feist, who also serves as DSACEUR, will lead the operation, working from SHAPE headquarters. The dispatch notes that the ministers’ decision had been widely expected after an agreement last month promised the EU force access to NATO assets.
  
  
• According to the Financial Times, U.S. envoys in Europe are putting pressure on EU countries to weaken the deepening Franco-German alliance, fearing it will lead to a more independent European defense and foreign policy. Diplomats are quoted saying Washington dislikes plans to set a defense procurement agency that could lead to better coordination in spending, research and the kind of military equipment either purchased or produced by EU countries. Another U.S. concern is scrapping the individual right of veto of member states over foreign policy. The Guardian, Jan. 25, reported that Prime Minister Blair is to make a concerted bid to avert a disastrous diplomatic split with France, fueled by divisions over Iraq, by reaching a wide ranging set of deals covering terrorism and defense at an Anglo-French summit within 10 days. Blair is planning to strike deals with the French on cooperation over terrorism designed to rival the Anglo-French deal on defense struck at St. Malo in 1998. Plans are also being discussed for greater cooperation on military hardware, including making future aircraft carriers compatible for French and British forces, says the newspaper.