Military

DATE=01-23-03

TYPE=INTERVIEW

NUMBER=3-503

TITLE=VENEZUELA

BYLINE=KENT KLEIN

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CNTENMT=

MR. CAROTHERS: It has certainly aggravated and made more tense the political situation and, in some ways, rallied the opponents of Chavez around a particular action. On the other hand, they are now discovering that Chavez looks like he is going to be able to survive the strike, and he is pulling the different levers of power that he has to resist what they're trying to do.

MR. KLEIN: So, you think he will probably win this dispute in the end?

MR. CAROTHERS: Well, he's going to survive in the short term. If the strike starts to really fade, which it may well now, especially given this decision by the Supreme Court on the referendum, they are going to probably have to refocus on an effort directed at trying to have a referendum in August, which is too far away for them but may be what their next target is most likely to be.

MR. KLEIN: What do you think the effects on the economy are going to be in the meantime?

MR. CAROTHERS: Obviously this has been a huge blow to the economy. Each side is going to try to blame it on the other. The average person in Venezuela is now really suffering as a result, particularly with the gas shortages there and the overall effect on the economy. The currency is down 24 percent just this year. So, this is having a big effect on everybody. Like I say, the question is who is going to get the primary blame for it. Each side will try to blame the other.

Now, if the strike ends and the oil starts to flow again, they will get a bump up, but only back to somewhere below where they were before.

MR. KLEIN: Assuming Mr. Chavez can, as you say, win the dispute and move on, would he have a difficult time governing in a country where there is so much popular opposition?

MR. CAROTHERS: Yes, he will. This is a highly aggravated and angry situation in Venezuela. The opponents of Chavez are furious. They feel that he is illegitimate. They feel he is dragging the country down, or off a cliff as it were. And so they're not going to cooperate with any of his economic initiatives or policies. And Chavez, on the other hand, feels that they're betraying the country and he doesn't want to deal with them. And so we're talking about a country that's on the brink of civil conflict. I wouldn't use the term "civil war," but certainly open conflict between different sides politically. And yes, it's going to be extremely hard to govern in this context.

MR. KLEIN: You mentioned the possibility of civil conflict; how strong is that possibility?

MR. CAROTHERS: What we're really talking about here, we have to distinguish between the kind of civil wars we've seen in countries, particularly in Africa, where two sides are often ethnically based and differentiated and fight against each other for years. What we're talking about here really is a struggle for control of the state, and it's not going to be an open civil war in the country, with armed forces raging against each other. What we're talking about is a very sort of violent and angry political conflict going on over months, in which there are strikes, there's police violence against strikes, there is maybe organized gangs who try to strike against governmental installations in some ways. So, it's kind of a low-grade civil conflict but it's about the control of the state and the control of the government in Venezuela.

MR. KLEIN: Where do you see this heading in the long term?

MR. CAROTHERS: I think there has to be a resolution of it this year. The country is bleeding, and it can't keep bleeding. I suspect the international involvement will step up as the crisis continues, and people will really focus on, like you say, the idea of a referendum sometime later this year. Because Chavez's arguments against that will probably begin to fade once -- he has already said, in a way, that it would be legitimate in August. And so I suspect there will be a great deal of international attention on making sure that happens.

(End of interview.)

NEB/PT