Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

21 January 2003

NATO

• Days after the United States formally asked NATO for help in a possible war against Iraq, some European officials say they do not want to start planning for conflict, because such preparations could send a dangerous political signal that NATO has given up hope of the Iraqi crisis being resolved peacefully, writes the Wall Street Journal. According to the article, European officials at NATO headquarters said that in principle they agree with all of the U.S. requests and would carry them out if a war breaks out. But, they said, France and Germany, among several other nations, are worried that if they direct NATO military planners to start laying out actions plans, they could undermine the continuing UN efforts to force Saddam Hussein to declare and abandon his weapons of mass destruction and avert war. "The question isn't so much about the substance," a European diplomat is quoted saying and adding: "If we decide to start planning for war, it will send a signal that we don't believe the UN process will work." The newspaper comments that "NATO's lukewarm response" to Washington's requests underscores the Alliance's growing inability to overcome political divisions among its 19 member nations and to repair its already tarnished image as an organization with diminished military relevance. It notes that Europe's reluctance to immediately heed the U.S. calls for logistical help against Iraq could also lend ammunition to those in Washington who say NATO has outlived its usefulness to U.S. security policies.

IRAQ-TURQEY

• According to AP, Turkish Foreign Minister Yakis said Tuesday that Turkey will host the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, Egypt and Jordan later this week to discuss peace in Iraq. He indicated that the meeting would take place in Istanbul Thursday. The foreign ministers are reportedly expected to discuss possible peaceful solutions to the standoff in Iraq and lay the groundwork for a subsequent regional peace summit. The dispatch also quotes Syria's official news agency SANA saying Tuesday that Syrian President Assad and Turkish Prime Minister Gul had agreed on a second meeting of the leaders of the six countries to be held in Damascus at a later date which has not yet been set.
  
  
• Media focus on Monday's visit to Turkey by Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Myers.
  Turkish newspapers reported Tuesday that Turkey has asked the United States to scale down its requests for deployment of U.S. forces on Turkish soil ahead of any U.S. military operation against Iraq, writes Reuters. According to the dispatch, mass-circulation Milliyet claimed that during talks with Turkish officials, Gen. Myers emphasized the importance of a northern front and renewed requests for support to the Chief of the General Staff, Gen. Ozkok. "Gen. Ozkok gave him the message, lower your desires to an acceptable level," the daily reportedly asserted. According to the dispatch, several newspaper carried similar reports, though accounts of the number of troops Washington has asked to deploy to Turkey varied from 80,000 to 125,000.
  A related article in the New York Times reports Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis said Monday Turkey had decided to allow the United States to use its bases for an attack on Iraq, but Turkish public opinion would force the government to drastically scale back the American plans. Yakis reportedly said in an interview that his government had instructed the Turkish military to draft a plan providing for an American force that would be just large enough to tie up Iraqi troops based in the northern part of the country so a larger American force could attack Baghdad from the south. "We instructed the military to negotiate with the American side and find out what is the figure which is necessary to make the American northern front meaningless," Yakis reportedly indicated. He added that the American and Turkish planners had not yet agreed on a final plan. According to the newspaper, Yakis said one of the options considered for a scaled-down northern front is an American force of about 15,000 troops. Under that plan, Yakis reportedly said, a pair of American brigades of about 5,000 troops each would attack in separate points in northern Iraq, with another brigade standing by in reserve.
  Officials have said that in the face of public opinion against the war, Turkey is willing to discuss hosting a force only about a quarters as large as the 80,000 troops the United States originally requested, writes the Washington Post. The article stresses that senior Turkish officials, including powerful generals, have insisted that a political decision on U.S. forces can come only after a UN Security Council vote authorizing the use of force against Iraq.
  

BALKANS

• Skopje's Radio Makedonija reports EU security chief Solana has informed the ambassadors of the EU member countries of President Trajkovsi's formal request for the EU to take over the peacekeeping mission in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. The dispatch quotes Solana's spokeswoman saying the EU will be taking over this mission in March but the exact date has still not been specified. She reportedly pointed out that the mission will have the same number of soldiers as NATO's mission--450 soldiers--and that it would be assigned the same tasks. A commentary in the Financial Times highlights that Skopje's request to the EU paves the way for the Europeans to take on their first military operation. "This will give us a real boost," the newspaper quotes a senior EU diplomat saying and adding: "We can now really move ahead with Macedonia (sic) and hopefully take over the other NATO-led mission in Bosnia some time next year."