Military

DATE=JANUARY 20, 2003

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=TERRY MCCOY/CUBA ELECTION

NUMBER=3-496

BYLINE=TOM CROSBY

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

/// Editors: This interview is available in Dalet under SOD/English News Now Interviews in the folder for today or yesterday ///

INTRO: Cuban officials say the one-party election Sunday was a success for the Communist party given that 97-percent of all eligible voters cast ballots. Government opponents urged voters to leave their ballots blank or to incorrectly mark them.

For Cuba-watchers such as Terry McCoy it is difficult to determine the significance of the Sunday's vote. He is the director of the Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Florida in Gainesville:

MR. MCCOY: Their numbers are so overwhelmingly in favor of the government that it looks like they wanted it to turn out that way. They didn't want any signs of cracks in the facade of the regime. Sometimes the Cuban Government has allowed a certain amount of dissidents in elections as a sign that it's more tolerant than people claim it is. This time they seem to want exactly the opposite. In any case, it's pretty hard for people who are in societies with competitive elections to see much in the Cuban election. Perhaps Cubans do, and it would be interesting to hear them talk, if they did. But it's hard for us to see much in it in the way of significant statements by the Cuban people.

MR. CROSBY: But in a perverse sort of way, didn't the opposition manage to have itself heard by urging people to cast either blank ballots or put in false names, that kind of thing?

MR. MCCOY: Yes. And then they commented on it as well, at least in the U.S., about the results being ridiculous, and Castro claiming that it was a sign of support for the regime and for the revolution, and the opposition saying it's really not a sign of anything except the control that the regime has over the people. So, they got their oar in the water, not exactly the way they wanted to, I think, or would like to have in the long run, but, nonetheless, it gave them an opportunity.

MR. CROSBY: Of course, this is a one-party election, isn't it?

MR. MCCOY: Yes, but it's more than one party. It's one name for each position. And so there is literally no choice at all. And the only way you can vote against the candidate is to either spoil your ballot or turn it in blank or not to vote. And in all three cases there is a lot of pressure on you not to do that, on the Cuban people not to do that. There are people who know -- if only five people vote, know, or don't turn their ballots in or vote blank, I suspect that the people watching them would be able to identify who they are and put a lot of pressure on them. So, that gives you a lot of respect and admiration for those people who are willing to say no.

MR. CROSBY: The people who did say no, apart from not marking their ballots or not turning them in or whatever, in calling this election unconstitutional and illegitimate, really have no further recourse, though, do they?

MR. MCCOY: No. The one hope they had, working within the constitution was the so-called Varela Project, which allows for, under their constitution, a referendum. But the government has really basically ignored them and paid no attention to it. So, it's not clear what their next step or tactic will be, frankly. There was a leading opposition leader in the United States last week, I think it was. So, that is a sign of a little bit of pause on behalf of the regime, but there is not much there. And I think any hope that this regime is going to allow change from within is probably forlorn.

MR. CROSBY: Is change from without still a possibility in your mind?

MR. MCCOY: Well, yes, but only I think after Fidel is gone. It's very hard for me to see how anything can take place as long as he is around. I think the United States Government, ironically enough, kind of plays into the strength of the government, because last week the Senate pulled out one of the provisions that would have loosened the embargo a little bit, by allowing Americans to travel to Cuba. And so we have sort of kept in lockstep with the Cuban Government, making it impossible for the two peoples, the Cuban and the American people, to kind of perhaps find some middle ground in this thing.

OUTRO: Terry McCoy is director of the Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Florida in Gainesville.

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