Military

DATE=12/19/02

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=YEARENDER: AFGHAN POL

NUMBER=5-52775

BYLINE=GARY THOMAS

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: At the end of 2001, competing Afghan factions came together in Bonn, Germany to sign an agreement to set the country on the path to democracy. In June, an elective council chose Hamid Karzai as interim president. V-O-A correspondent Gary Thomas who has made several trips to Afghanistan in the past year reports the political situation there remains very uncertain.

TEXT: Afghanistan has set out on the road to democracy. But, analysts say, the road remains a treacherous one, strewn with political landmines. And it is not at all certain Afghanistan will reach the desired destination.

In June, a grand council called a Loya Jirga was convened in Kabul to begin implementing the terms of the Bonn accord. Hamid Karzai was chosen interim president, heading a transitional government that is to draft a new constitution and pave the way for elections in 2004.

Mr. Karzai who has strong international backing, particularly from the United States immediately pledged to bring an end to the power of regional warlords.

// KARZAI ACT //

No fiefdoms allowed here. No independent structures allowed here. That will not be tolerated.

// END ACT //

But, strongmen like Ismail Khan in the west and Abdul Rashid Dostum in the north continue to rule regions of Afghanistan with their private armies. Former Pakistani diplomat and journalist Husain Haqqani says Mr. Karzai is rapidly using up his initial reservoir of good will.

// HAQQANI ACT //

Within a year he should have been able to translate that into wide domestic political support. There are no signs of that at the moment. But one must still give him some time. What he hasn't been able to deal with are the regional leaders, who are also described as warlords. It seems that they are sapping into his strength, and soon the good will that was generated when he came into office is going to start to dissipate. And that is definitely going to start to make him a weaker leader than he started out as.

// END ACT //

Brad Adams of Human Rights Watch says that when it comes time for elections in 2004, the warlords could be legitimized. That, he says, would off any chance of bringing them to justice for the alleged crimes of the past two decades.

// Adams act //

We're particularly concerned that as long as warlords are kept in place, by the 2004 elections, they will be so secure that they will be able to run in those elections and then be legitimized. They would then probably receive parliamentary immunity, as most countries offer to their parliamentarians. Then there will be no chance to go back and look at what people did over the past 20 years.

// end act //

Analysts say there is a paradox in U-S policy in Afghanistan. They say the United States is committed to supporting President Karzai but that the U-S military has been using the warlords to root out remnants of the Taleban and al-Qaida.

Some four-point five billion dollars in international aid has been pledged to Afghanistan. Another one-point-two billion dollars was pledged at donors' conference in Norway in December. Mr. Karzai and his aides have complained that aid has been slow to come in.

Speaking from Kabul, Susanne Schmeidl of Swiss Peace Foundation's Afghan Civil Society Forum says the aid has been coming in, but most seems to be going for immediate humanitarian relief.

// SCHMEIDL ACT //

However, what the government really needs is capacity building money that it gets for its ministries -- monies that it can show it is rebuilding Afghanistan reconstruction. And that's where I think the big gap has been. Right now there has been a big choice about where you put money in humanitarian assistance or in reconstruction. And too little has gone into reconstruction, which gives people the perception that the pledges haven't come through.

// END ACT //

Analysts point out that, in fairness, building a strong and effective central government takes time. But the international community has so far refused to deploy peacekeepers outside of Kabul. The United States and its allied are pledged to building an effective, multiethnic national army to keep order, but that is going to take considerable time. (signed)

NEB/GPT/MAR