Military

DATE=December 12, 2002

NUMBER=7-37029

TYPE=Dateline

TITLE=Turmoil in the Horn of Africa

BYLINE=Carol Castiel

TELEPHONE=619-1101

DATELINE=Washington

EDITOR=Neal Lavon

CONTENT=

DISK: DATELINE THEME [PLAYED IN STUDIO, FADED UNDER DATELINE HOST VOICE OR PROGRAMMING MATERIAL]

HOST: Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld this week wrapped up a four-day overseas visit. The secretary travelled to the Horn of Africa and Qatar in the Persian Gulf. He stopped in Djibouti where more than 2,000 American troops are stationed. The Horn of Africa is a critical base for the United States as it prosecutes the war on terrorism and prepares for a possible strike against Iraq. However, as Carol Castiel reports in this edition of Dateline, the conspicuous U.S. military presence in Djibouti might inflame tensions even as it seeks to prevent further terror attacks.

CC: Following the September 11th attacks, the United States and its allies in the war on terrorism worried that al-Qaida fighters would flee Afghanistan for Somalia or other areas in the Horn of Africa. As a result, the U.S. Department of Defense recently established the Joint Task Force for the Horn of Africa in the small Muslim country of Djibouti. Two of Djibouti's neighbors, Yemen and Somalia, are believed to have attracted hundreds of Al-Qaida operatives.

While some countries such as Sudan have been used as a base for terrorists, Africa has more often been a victim rather than an exporter of terror. In the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, over 200 Africans lost their lives. And just two weeks ago, another terrorist act occurred in Kenya as that nation's president, Daniel arap Moi [DAN-yell AH-rahp MOY], underscored in a recent visit to Washington.

TAPE: CUT 1 MOI :39

"My country suffered yet another terrorist attack in Mombassa that killed 16 innocent lives and destroyed valuable property. The terrorist act in addition to the events of September 11th and the bombings of U-S embassies in Nairobi and Dar Es Salam, clearly demonstrate that terrorism poses a threat to international peace and security. I wish to assure you that no efforts will be spared to address those responsible for the terrorist acts." (2:40)

CC: President Moi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi met with President Bush at the White House last week where they discussed heightened security concerns in the region.

Steve Morrison, Director of the Africa program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, echoes President Moi's remarks and underscores the threat of Islamist fundamentalist groups which may have links to Al-Qaida .

TAPE: CUT 2 MORRISON :31

"We and Kenyans and Tanzanians and Ethiopians have all had a very real experience with terrorism associated with radical Islam over the last several years: al Itihad out of Somalia, which has struck through terrorist bombings inside Ethiopia in the mid till the latter part of the 90s, the bombing of the US Embassies in Dar Es Salam and Nairobi on August 1998, the radicalization of the government of Khartoum in the early to mid-90's." (3:30)

CC: In the wake of last month's bombing of an Israeli-owned hotel in Mombasa, Kenya, which Washington blames on al-Qaida terrorists, a U-S senator is urging the United States to step up its security and economic engagement with Africa.

Senator Russell Feingold, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, recently led a panel of experts in a discussion of U-S policy toward Africa.

TAPE: CUT 3 FEINGOLD [FM TATE] :41

"A world full of weak states that have become havens for international criminals helps the forces of terror, not just by providing a lawless haven for their operations but also by providing evidence for their argument that the status quo is deserving of destruction, because the world of a Somali child is a world many of us would quite readily reject. It only takes one look at Somalia, or the war-ravaged state of Congo today, or the porous borders of West Africa, to see opportunities for those who would do us harm. The only way to address these diffuse threats is through a long-term commitment to re-engagement. (4:30)

CC: Greg Engle, Director of Regional Affairs in the State Department's Africa Division, defended current U-S engagement with the continent. He noted that U-S and Kenyan troops are conducting joint exercises off Kenya's coast and are operating in Djibouti in an effort to track down suspected terrorists in the region. Mr. Engle says the United States is also trying to fight terrorism with economic aid. (5:00)

TAPE: CUT 4 ENGLE :39

"We put together a package to provide assistance to Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Sudan, Nigeria and Cote d'Ivoire. It did look at terrorist financing, movement of money, but it also looked at education, agricultural development and marketing, improved food security, because unless we look at some of these things, we are always going to have states that are failing or barely surviving, and breeding grounds for terrorists to take advantage of the dispossession." (5:30)

CC: However, Steve Morrison points out that Al-Qaida's recent terrorist attacks demonstrate a change of tactics that will make it much more difficult to stop them.

TAPE: CUT 5 MORRISON, :33

"When you look at the operations al-Qaida launched in Bali, Djerba, Mombassa. This is a different kind of operation. This isn't something that involves putting cells on the ground for three, four five years. This involves small, mobile groups that come in and launch these operations. They may or may not have strong local affiliates. They are deft at being able to operate in that environment and the investigations are still unfolding." (6:00)

CC: Another challenge that faces the United States in fighting terrorism in Africa are the large numbers of Muslims who live there. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Walter Kansteiner commented on the subject at a recent press conference in Washington.

TAPE: CUT 6 KANSTEINER :30

"Africa does have a very large Muslim population. It has historically been a population that is interested in tolerance and in fact is tolerant. There are always places of flashpoints. We occasionally see them in Nigeria. Unfortunately, we are seeing some sectarian tension now in Nigeria and it does concern us, but generally there is not a tradition of radical Islam in Africa." (6:45)

CC: Nonetheless, Steve Morrison warns that growing anti-American sentiment based on perceptions that U.S. policies on terrorism are anti-Muslim, may trigger more flashpoints in the future.

TAPE: CUT 7 MORRISON :28

"There's been growing anger over the position the U.S. government has taken in the Middle East peace process. It resonates strongly within Africa, particularly among Muslim populations, not exclusively, and as on the ground engagement intensifies in the Horn of Africa, you can expect there will be an intensification of this kind of reaction. And, if we go to war with Iraq, you can expect to see much more evidence of this in Nigeria and South Africa and elsewhere as well." (7:30)

CC: Mr. Morrison believes the attacks against Mombassa were not coincidental to the advent of the U.S. regional command in Djibouti.

TAPE: CUT 8 MORRISON :22

"When you create this kind of structure, this kind of projection, you should expect that there's going to be retaliation and attempts to demonstrate the ability to hit soft targetsAmerican, Israeli, private sector and the like and it carries obviously higher risks for the people that live in these countries." (8:00)

CC: To combat growing anti-American attitudes on the continent, Steve Morrison recommends that the United States redouble its diplomatic efforts by developing a long-term, multi-pronged strategy.

TAPE: CUT 9 MORRISON :40

"I see the Pentagon moving forward fairly precipitously in setting up this regional command, I see the diplomacy lagging far behind that. So, I think it's a matter of Washington picking this up as a top priority and dedicating a higher level of human and other resources towards a campaign of public diplomacy that gets the messages out there. That engages in face-to-face discussions, that reaches out to the Muslim leadership, opinion leaders, to media outlets within the region and takes the criticism and attempts to deal with it in an open fashion." (9:00)

Mr. Morrison says the U.S. commitment to brokering peace in war-torn Sudan exemplifies the type of engagement the United States should take as it pursues the war on terror in the Horn of Africa.

TAPE: CUT 10 MORRISON :22

"This is the one place where the administration in Africa has engaged in serious, sustained, high level diplomacy to try and end a war. They deserve some credit for this. They've done it in partnership with the Kenyans and others. They've played off of the advantages that came after 9-11 in terms of leverage over the parties. There's plenty of risks and plenty of traps, but overall, I commend the administration."

CC: An estimated 2 million people have died in the fighting or war-related famine in the 19-year-old Sudanese conflict which pits the Muslim north against the Christian and animist south.

//opt//State Department officials are inviting both parties to Washington this month for talks aimed at moving them toward a comprehensive peace agreement in January. ///end opt///.

Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, Walter Kansteiner, also touts the Sudanese model, particularly its selection of former Senator John Danforth as a special envoy.

TAPE: CUT 11 KANSTEINER :29

"And I think it's because the likes of President Bush, Colin Powell, selecting Jack Danforth early on, giving that special envoy the impetus and momentum to get the parties in a room together to demonstrate not only to the Sudanese, both north and south, but to the world that we were serious about this. This was a priority for the United States. And we were going to take the time and effort to put our resources and time into it."

CC: Analysts say that in order to mount truly successful counter-terrorism efforts in the Horn of Africa, the U-S government will have to do more than deploy military personnel. They say the Bush administration should launch a comprehensive diplomatic effort and exhibit the same level of sustained commitment currently being shown toward brokering peace in Sudan.

In Washington, I'm Carol Castiel for Dateline.

MUSIC: MODERN MUSIC FROM SUDAN