Military

DATE=11-5-02

TYPE=FOCUS

NUMBER=8-022

TITLE= Moscow Crisis Aftermath

BYLINE=ED WARNER

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

INTRO: In the wake of the Moscow hostage crisis, painful questions are being asked about the use of the gas that took so many lives, about the ease with which the terrorists moved through the city, about the failure of Russia to negotiate an end to the war with Chechnya. VOA's Ed Warner reports on the hostage-taking aftermath.

TEXT: Terrorism begets terrorism, says Zbigniew Brzezinski, referring to the hostage crisis in Moscow:

/// BRZEZINSKI ACT ///

The dynamics of the situation are driving the Russians, particularly after the outrage in Moscow, toward more repression, and the prolonged war is driving the increasingly desperate Chechens into greater extremism.

/// END ACT ///

A top foreign policy adviser to former U-S President Jimmy Carter, Mr. Brzezinski says a political settlement of the conflict will now be harder to achieve.

There is no excuse for terrorism, says Mr. Brzezinski, but in this instance it stems from a separatist movement Moscow has mishandled:

//// BRZEZINSKI ACT ///

The contrast between the way the Russian government is handling the Chechnya problem and the way, for example, Great Britain is handling the northern Ireland crisis or the Spanish government is handling the Basque terrorism or the way the French government resolved the rebellion in Algeria speak for itself.

/// END ACT ///

Moscow's use of gas is also called into question. It led to the deaths of the terrorists but took the lives of well over 100 hostages. Medical authorities both in Moscow and in the west say these people could have been saved if enough antidote had been available.

Moscow at first would not reveal the gas that was used fentanyl. But the combined pressure of the international and Russian press forced a disclosure.

Despite efforts at censorship, the Moscow media has risen to the occasion, says John Dunlop, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University:

/// DUNLOP ACT ///

Fortunately, one good result of this episode has been a reinvigoration of glasnost. I am very heartened by that. A number of Russian journalists are digging hard to try to find out what happened. They are trying to find out, for example, how many hostages actually have died up to this date. They are dubious about the official figures being given out.

/// END ACT ///

Journalists are also looking into another troubling aspect of the crisis, notes Mr. Brzezinski:

/// BRZEZINSKI ACT ///

What, of course, is very mysterious about this entire incident is how it could have taken place in the first place. How do you organize a military operation involving 50 armed camouflaged, uniformed fighters carrying explosives, and arriving in a vehicle and seizing a public facility with 700 people in a city which is well policed but is also more than 1000 miles away from the home territory of the Chechens?

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Brzezinski thinks there had to be some kind of collusion between the Chechens and an element of the Russian security forces. There are many reports of rogue Russian troops selling arms to the rebels. Analysts say the profit motive is a major factor in keeping the war going.

Moscow is now launching an even stronger offensive in Chechnya and is rounding up Chechen suspects in Russia and elsewhere. Many Chechens say they are being unfairly harassed, arrested or forced to pay bribes to police. ///opt/// "The militia are abusing their authority, says Oleg Miranov, a Russian official who serves as a human rights ombudsman. He told the Washington Post that Chechens are being detained on the basis of their ethnicity alone. ///end opt///

Moscow is seeking the extradition of a Chechen leader, Akhmed Zakayev, in Copenhagen. But Denmark has so far refused, citing lack of evidence he is involved in terrorism. The Danes are right, says Glen Howard, executive director of the American Committee for Peace in Chechnya:

/// HOWARD ACT ///

There is a possible fear that he may be extradited back to Russia, which would leave no moderates in the west, no one to talk to from the Chechen side, and that will leave us only talking to the radicals. In some ways, I am concerned that maybe that is what Moscow wants.

/// END ACT ///

Even though Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov has condemned the hostage taking, Mr. Howard notes Moscow holds him and his followers responsible:

/// HOWARD ACT ///

This group is secular and is seeking a negotiated settlement, but unfortunately, President Putin has decided to avoid and condemn and try to implicate Maskhadov in backing this hostage crisis in Moscow, leaving him no exit strategy for ending the war.

/// END ACT ///

Moscow is also intent on linking the hostage-takers to terrorists elsewhere. John Dunlop of the Hoover Institution says that is a stretch:

/// DUNLOP ACT ///

From what I can determine, virtually all of the hostage takers were Chechens. They spoke fluent Russian, and there is no evidence that there were any Arabs in the room at all. I see this primarily as a Chechen episode, although of course, they were trying to connect with supporters they have in the Arab world, hoping presumably that they might get help and funds in the future.

/// END ACT ///

As the war has dragged on and the casualties have mounted, the Chechens long for peace. Mr. Howard says most Chechens would now settle for autonomy short of independence:

/// HOWARD ACT ///

Chechen civilians have suffered immensely from this conflict. Forty per cent of all Chechens now live below the poverty line. They have an infant mortality rate of 67 per cent. They have children growing up who do not speak Russian. All they know is what they call the culture of the kalishnikov. And unfortunately, this is spreading, and it is leading to greater radicalization of Islam in Chechnya.

/// END ACT ///

Given war-weariness, analysts in Russia and the west think a political settlement is within reach despite the latest attack. But there has to be the will to reach it, and that appears to analysts to be lacking in Moscow.

They add some nudging from the west, particularly from the United States, would help. But that has not been forthcoming, says Zbigniev Brzezinski:

/// BRZEZINSKI ACT ///

I think America has a role that it is failing to play adequately. The administration has said occasionally that the issue of Chechnya cannot be reduced just to the issue of terrorism and that national separatism is involved, and a political settlement is needed. It has not really pursued that line very energetically or very consistently.

/// END ACT ///

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Ivan Rybkin, former speaker of the Russian duma, says the U-S war on terrorism has made it easier for Moscow to avoid a political solution.

President Maskhadov has pleaded for U-S help to start negotiations between Russia and Chechnya, says Mr. Rybkin. But Washington does not want to do anything to irritate Moscow since its agreement is needed for confronting Iraq. Rejected by both Russia and the United States, a weakened Maskhadov lost control of his extremists, says Mr. Rybkin, and off they went to take hostages in Moscow.

Mr. Rybkin writes: "Our American friends must stop encouraging the party of war in Moscow and in Chechnya and delink the Chechen issue from the fight against international terrorism."

John Dunlop says this should guide U-S policy in general:

/// DUNLOP ACT ///

Obviously, the war on terrorism can be used as a cover, not just by Russia but by other governments to crack down on separatist movements or minorities in their countries. So we have to be very careful that we distinguish between separatism on the one hand and international terrorism on the other.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Dunlop and others say the best way to fight Chechen terrorism is to end the war with Chechnya.

For Focus, this is Ed Warner.