Military

DATE=10/11/02

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=PAUL WILKINSON, TERRORISM

NUMBER=3-377

BYLINE=KENT KLEIN

DATELINE=

/// EDITORS: THIS INTERVIEW IS AVAILABLE IN DALET UNDER SOD/ENGLISH NEWS NOW INTERVIEWS IN THE FOLDER FOR TODAY OR YESTERDAY ///

INTRO: German authorities this week arrested a Moroccan man (Abdelghani Mzoudi) on suspicion he provided logistical support to Mohamed Atta and two other men accused of last year's September 11th hijackings. And U-S citizen (Ahmed Ibrahim Bilal) has been deported from Malaysia on charges he supported al-Qaida.

Professor Paul Wilkinson is with the Center for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of Saint Andrews in Scotland. He tells V-O-A's Kent Klein these developments show progress is being made in the fight against terrorism....

PROF. WILKINSON: I think they are very significant. They show that there is continuing intelligence progress. And remember, we had an enormous intelligence deficit on al-Qaida's activities not only in the United States but around the world. And they are a global network. So for them to unravel this network, we need maximum intelligence cooperation and criminal justice investigation cooperation. And I think that is what is developing. It is reaching the highest level among the allies that it has achieved since the Gulf War in 1991.

MR. KLEIN: On the other hand, there are new threats by al-Qaida against the United States. And Sunday's explosion on a French tanker off the coast of Yemen, do you think that shows us how far we still have to go?

PROF. WILKINSON: I think it does. We have made progress. And the coalition is achieving a great deal. But there is still a clear and present danger from al-Qaida. It is the most dangerous terrorist network that we have faced since the beginning of the history of modern terrorism. It's a threat not only to the United States but to the whole international community.

And despite the military setback in Afghanistan that it suffered, losing its safe haven, with the Taliban regime overthrown, we know that they still have access to money. Almost 20 or so of their top leaders and operatives are still at large. They still have access to training facilities and are continuing to recruit. And we still need desperately to get more intelligence on their plans and intentions. And so there is a long way to go. But I believe that we can, with multinational cooperation and a multi-pronged effort, we can achieve success in the long run.

MR. KLEIN: Now, this past week, al-Jazeera television broadcast some audio messages from Osama bin Laden and his senior deputy. Does that give us any more reliable indication as to whether bin Laden is still alive?

PROF. WILKINSON: Unfortunately, it doesn't give us really certain evidence one way or the other. It is possible that this was a message that was recorded some time ago. We don't know really what the fate of some of the top leaders might be. That is one of the things that we need to learn about from improved intelligence. That's going to be the secret of our success in defeating the al-Qaida network, and we've still got a long way to go in developing that detailed inside knowledge of al-Qaida.

MR. KLEIN: In your view, do you think that if the U.S. were to lead military attacks on Iraq, that would help or hurt the overall effort to cripple al-Qaida?

PROF. WILKINSON: I think that whatever your views about the desirability or otherwise of military intervention in Iraq, we have to be realistic. The al-Qaida organization and its affiliates would take this as an opportunity for propaganda, for further recruitment, and undoubtedly would use it as an opening for additional attacks. They would say here is the United States and its Western alliance again attacking the Islamic world, and they would portray it as a part of a holy war which they have to win.

Therefore, I think we would have to expect rather more violence, more turbulence, and it would be rather unrealistic to think that that would be missing from the scene. I think it would be part of the background to any military conflict between Iraq and the United States and Britain.

Host: Paul Wilkinson is a professor at the Center for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of Saint Andrews in Scotland.

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