Military

DATE=10/9/02

TYPE=FOCUS

NUMBER=8-005

TITLE=SRI LANKA PEACE PROSPECTS

BYLINE=ZLATICA HOKE

TELEPHONE=202-619-0935

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

EDITOR=

CONTENT=

((Focus is an 8-minute segment on a leading story, prepared as script and inserts, hosted live by the anchor. In general, it should start at 14:45 -- check length to determine backtiming))

MD: NEWS NOW THEMES TRACK 1 (focus theme :12)

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HOST: In our Focus segment today ...

INTRO: After almost two decades of civil strife, people in the South Asian country of Sri Lanka are living in relative peace thanks to the cease-fire between Sri Lankan government and the Tamil rebels. Hopes are high, but many people wonder if the current Norwegian-mediated peace talks can bring about a final end to the destructive conflict that has killed more than 60-thousand people -- including two government heads -- and displaced thousands from their homes. The prospects for a lasting peace in Sri Lanka are the topic of today's Focus. Zlatica Hoke reports.

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TEXT: The Arab sailors who first encountered the island of Sri Lanka centuries ago called it Serendib -- "the land of happy surprising occurrences". It's where the word "serendipity" comes from. There are indications that different ethnic groups lived on the island peacefully for ages. Raju Thomas, professor of international affairs at Marquette University in Milwaukee, Wisconsin says that's what gives him hope that lasting peace is possible in Sri Lanka.

TAPE CUT THOMAS:

"Tamils and Sinhalese -- they both came to the island around 500 B.C. The Sinhalese came from North India at the time when Buddhism had just been founded by Buddha and they came to Sri Lanka after that as Buddhists. And then the Tamils came around the same time. From there until 1983, there was no conflict. They lived together in peace for all these centuries."

TEXT: But some views are less optimistic. Robert Rotberg, director of the Program on Intra-State Conflict at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, says the Tamil Tigers may have given up on seeking an independent state -- at least for now -- but they still want substantial autonomy in the northern and eastern parts of Sri Lanka.

TAPE CUT ROTBERG:

"It's not clear that the bulk of the Sinhalese population of the island will in fact be prepared to give autonomy of a kind that the (Tamil) Tigers will accept."

TEXT: During the past two decades of escalating civil war, the Liberation Tamil Tigers of Eelam have struggled for a crescent-shaped nation, called Tamil Eelam, to be carved out of the north and east of the island. Its capital would be the strategic port of Trincomalee, a chief naval base for the Allies in World War Two. Robert Rotberg says there is very little evidence that the Tamil Tigers, one of the world's bloodiest insurgent groups, have given up on that dream.

TAPE CUT ROTBERG

"The news that I have from Sri Lanka is that there are still incidents, and there are people getting killed, although many fewer than before (the peace talks), and there was the incident only a few weeks ago of a Tiger vessel off the northeast cost attacking government vessels."

TEXT: The Sinhalese side has not been blameless either. Following independence from the British in 1948, the Sinhalese-led governments promoted the interests of the majority Sinhala population at the expense of the Tamil minority. They discriminated especially against the Tamil language. The Tamils, who are primarily Hindu, have feared losing their identity and being overwhelmed by the majority, who are Buddhist. The Sinhalese, in turn, fear that the Tamils, with the backing of their ethnic kin in the Indian province of Tamil Nadu, will destabilize and take over control of the Sri Lankan government. The war began in 1983, when rebel Tamils killed 13 soldiers, sparking riots in which several hundred Tamils were killed. American journalist and author William McGowan spent three years in Sri Lanka during the 1980-s. He says periods of peace regularly gave way to violence.

TAPE CUT MCGOWAN:

"It was extremely tense in terms of watchfulness for terrorism. And then with great regularity, we would have suicide bus bombing or attacks on temples. And one of the enduring contradictory things about Sri Lanka is that it can just seem so peaceful and so beautiful and then all of a sudden, out of nowhere, you can be staring at a most horrific scene."

TEXT: Peace talks and deployment of Indian peace keepers during the 1980-s failed to curb the escalation of violence.

TAPE CUT MCGOWAN:

"I saw several massacres up in the northeast -- one in a town called Batticaloa on a day after Christmas where a market place was used as an ambush point by the Tamil Tigers against the Sinhalese-dominated army. And the civilians in the market place got caught in between. I guess there were about 35 dead.

TEXT: A reclusive and ruthless Tamil leader Vellupillai Prabakharan and his rebels have been responsible not only for assaults on Sinhalese targets, but also for the harsh subjugation of Tamils, Muslims and other people in areas under their control. (BEGIN OPT) In 1991, the Tigers were implicated in the assassination of Indian premier Rajiv Gandhi and in 1993 a Tamil suicide bomber killed Sri Lankan president Ranasinghe Premadasa. (END OPT) Human-rights watch groups have condemned them for recruiting children and for terrorist attacks against civilians. The rebels have also eliminated leaders of moderate Tamil groups. Swarma Rajagopalan, a visiting assistant professor of political science at the University of Illinois is a Tamil from India. She says Sri Lankan Tamils and other people who live in areas under the rebels' control are equally apprehensive about the government and the Tigers.

TAPE CUT RAJAGOPALAN:

"If they are afraid of the Sri Lankan state in certain ways, they certainly have reason to be apprehensive about the Tigers in their day-to-day life. The Tigers do use extortion to raise funds. They have forcibly relocated people from areas that come under their control. This is not an easy leadership to live with."

TEXT: But the LTTE, or the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, have eliminated all rival leaders in the area they control and have emerged as the only leaders of Sri Lankan Tamils.

Terrorist organizations came under heightened scrutiny worldwide after the September-eleven attacks on the United States. Even before that, the U.S., Britain and Malaysia listed the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam as a terrorist organization. Funds linked to terrorist organizations were frozen. Robert Rotberg of the Harvard's Kennedy School of Government says this is what forced the Tigers to the negotiating table.

TAPE CUT -- ROTBERG:

"What's changed in the whole equation is (that) the West, particularly the United States and Italy and Britain, have managed to cut off contributions from the Tamil diaspora quite successfully so that Tigers are starved of cash and their bank accounts have been frozen and that's why this is all happening in the first place."

TEXT: Some observers also think there is general fatigue on both sides and a desire to return to a normal life. Swarma Rajagopalan of the University of Illinois:

TAPE CUT RAJAGOPALAN:

"There was a recent poll conducted in (the northern city of) Jaffna by a Columbo-based think tank that showed that people were really hoping that it would work this time they are ready for this conflict to end. I think that certainly is a factor."

TEXT: The Sri Lankan government has been willing to make amends for some time. Last month the new government of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, eager to end the war, lifted the ban on the Tigers' organization before the Norwegian-mediated talks began. But some observers point out that he is also under pressure from Sinhalese hard-liners NOT to give in to Tamil demands. The leftist People's Liberation Front, or JVP party, has already protested the Norwegian peace plan, saying it would lead to the division of the small island country. Author William McGowan says the militant Buddhist clergy may be even less inclined to support negotiations with the rebels.

TAPE CUT MCGOWAN:

"I would ask the question just how important, how virulent is the Sinhala Buddhist nationalism right now, and will this ultimately kind of constrain or confine the political space that any political process or politician has to work out a peace agreement with the Tamils, who in the Sinhala Buddhist imagination are considered the mortal enemies of Buddhism."

TEXT: (BEGIN OPTIONAL) Some western analysts also question the prudence of handing over administration of northern and northeastern provinces to an organization labeled as terrorist. They worry about the freedom and security of about two-million people who would find themselves living under the LTTE rule.

TAPE CUT ROTBERG:

"I also think that the government's strongest hand is not to permit enormous autonomy, but just enough to continue the cease-fire until such time as they can marginalize the Tigers even more, because the Tigers have no legitimacy in the country or in the struggle."

TEXT: Robert Rotberg of the Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. (END OPT)

For now, the island's main political players support the Norvegian-mediated talks -- President Chandrika Kumaratunga and her People's Alliance, Prime Minister Wickramasinghe and his rival United National Party and Vellupillai Prabakharan and his Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. The permanent cease-fire agreement, signed in February is still holding. In March, Sri Lankan Prime Minister was welcomed when he visited the northern city of Jaffna, the center of Tamil culture. He was the first prime minister to appear there in more than twenty years. This gives many people hope that with some luck and effort, the beautiful island of Sri Lanka may once again deserve its ancient name of Serendib.

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