23 September 2002
State Official Says Conflict Resolution Vital to National Security
(Amb. Donald Steinberg discusses conflict avoidance diplomacy) (1500)
Conflicts and failed states are breeding grounds for threats to U.S.
national security -- including terrorism, proliferation of weapons of
mass destruction, trafficking of women and children, illegal drugs,
international crime, and infectious diseases, says Ambassador Donald
Steinberg, deputy director for policy planning at the State
Department.
"It is impossible to achieve or even adequately address the
fundamental goals outlined in President Bush's National Security
Strategy, including promoting freedom and good governance, sustainable
development, free enterprise, and international stability and
cooperation -- in the presence of violence," Steinberg said September
23 at a State Department "Open Forum" on approaches to international
conflict resolution.
However, the cost of conflict resolution is very high, he said. The UN
estimates that it spent more than $250,000 million in the 1990s on
eight major humanitarian interventions and peacekeeping operations, he
said.
"Regrettably, we seem as a nation and an international community to be
able to provide vast amounts of disaster assistance once conflict
emerges, and yet we struggle to find resources to prevent these
emergencies from occurring. Too often, to paraphrase General Pinckney,
we seem to say: 'Billions for relief, but very few pennies for
prevention,'" Steinberg said.
(Note: In the text, billion equals 1,000 million.)
Following is a text of Steinberg's remarks:
(begin text)
Preventing Conflicts Before They Erupt
Donald K. Steinberg, Deputy Director for Policy Planning
Remarks to the Open Forum
Washington, DC
September 23, 2002
It is a pleasure to have this opportunity to address this important
discussion on international conflict resolution, and to honor the
Applied Conflict Resolution Organizations Network and the individual
non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that form its membership. I
would like to begin with a few comments to pick up on the themes
outlined so well by Under Secretary Grossman to provide additional
texture to our discussions.
This program could not be more timely. There is a broad and growing
recognition among practitioners and theorists alike that conflict
avoidance, conflict resolution and post-conflict reconstruction form
the bedrock of diplomacy and the promotion of American national
security interests around the world.
It is impossible to achieve or even adequately address the fundamental
goals outlined in President Bush's National Security Strategy
including promoting freedom and good governance, sustainable
development, free enterprise, and international stability and
cooperation -- in the presence of violence. Conflicts and failed
states are breeding grounds for threats to our national security,
including terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,
trafficking of women and children, illegal drugs, international crime,
and even diseases.
They are also expensive: the UN estimates that the international
community spent well over $250 billion on eight major humanitarian
interventions and peacekeeping operations in the 1990s alone. By
contrast, the cost of many of the programs we will discuss here today
to build dialogues across ethnic and regional lines, strengthen civil
society, create rule of law and address other underlying causes of
conflict is a fraction of that amount.
Regrettably, we seem as a nation and an international community to be
able to provide vast amounts of disaster assistance once conflict
emerges, and yet we struggle to find resources to prevent these
emergencies from occurring. Too often, to paraphrase General Pinckney,
we seem to say: "Billions for relief, but very few pennies for
prevention."
Given these scarce resources, then, there is an added imperative to
know where to put our ounce of prevention. Looking back on the past
decade, I constantly hear people say: "If we had only paid more
attention and dedicated more resources to Rwanda, or Somalia, or
Haiti, or the former Yugoslavia, we could have avoided so much
suffering."
Of course this is true, but it suggests a degree of prescience in
anticipating conflict that we do not yet have. Take Africa, for
example: most observers in 1990 believed that the transition from
apartheid to democracy in South Africa would be the primary source of
conflict throughout the continent, and yet even with the tragic
violence between Mandela's release and his election in 1994, the
process marched ahead.
By contrast, if you were looking at Africa in 1995, how could you
predict that former comrades in arms in the Horn Ethiopia and Eritrea
would turn on each other; or that ethnically united and resource rich
Botswana would be ravaged and potentially destabilized by HIV/AIDS; or
that a single man -- Jonas Savimbi -- could defy the combined will of
the international community and his countrymen and plunge Angola back
into senseless war?
In trying to predict where conflict will emerge, experts within
government have looked at scores of conflicts over past decades and
identified "associative" if not "causative" factors. Nine of these are
particularly instructive.
-- First is the degree of political participation, responsive
governance, and rule of law. Societies must have safety valves to
permit the peaceful redress of grievances.
-- Second is the nexus of urbanization, population pressure, and the
state of economy. A quick route to conflict is through youth
unemployment and lack of opportunity.
-- The condition of the education system is vital. Investment in
schools and in girlsgirls' education in particular is the single most
important factor in improving health, agriculture, and other
socio-economic standards, and giving youth a stake in the future.
-- Next is the existence or absence of institutions of civil society,
including womenswomen's organizations.
-- Fifth is religious and ethnic homogeneity, or at least the extent
to which differences are tolerated.
-- Next is: "Location, location, location." The role of neighbors in
either mediating or fueling disputes is fundamental. Countries in bad
neighborhoods risk spillover from armed combatants, refugees and arms
flows; those is good neighborhoods receive a powerful dampening effect
on potential violence.
-- Seventh is the role of the military and security forces in the
political structure.
-- Eighth is international engagement, including the openness of the
economy. Conflicts are like mushrooms: they grow best in darkness.
-- Finally, has there been upheaval during past 15 years? Contrary to
the warning on an investment prospectus, the past record is an
indicator of future performance.
These are among the factors we need to monitor as indicators and
potential triggers of conflict, and this is one area where governments
are highly dependent on the work of civil society to provide ground
truth. We cannot do much about many of these factors, nor can we stop
natural disasters that often translate into conflict. Still, every
drought does not have to become a famine.
As Secretary Powell said in Johannesburg, it is not the lack of rain
alone that has pushed three million Zimbabweans into South Africa and
millions more toward starvation; it is the failed policies and lack of
respect for rule of law and human rights of Robert Mugabe.
I am just returning from the World Summit on Sustainable Development
concluded earlier this month in Johannesburg, where governments,
international organizations, civil society, and businesses came
together to strengthen the three pillars of sustainable development:
economic growth, investment in people, and environmental stewardship.
Sustainable development is a vaccine against conflict.
Under President Bush's leadership, we unveiled at Johannesburg four
new partnerships that unite our talents, energy, and resources. For
example, the "Water for the Poor" initiative leverages $1.6 billion to
expand access to clean water and sanitation, and improve watershed
management around the world.
The "Clean Energy" initiative will help families replace wood and dung
with modern energy sources in indoor cooking, helping eliminate indoor
pollution that causes two million premature deaths each year from
respiratory illness.
Similar initiatives will promote sustainable agriculture, protect the
Congo Basin ecosystem, combat HIV/AIDS, build low-cost housing, and
expand education.
There was also a strong emphasis in Johannesburg on the role of women
not just as victims of conflict and under-development, but as the key
to preventing and ending conflict. As Secretary Powell has often
stated, women must have a seat at the table as planners, implementers
and beneficiaries of development projects, private sector initiatives,
distribution of humanitarian relief, and peace processes themselves.
In all these efforts, we welcome our strong partnerships and division
of labor with international organizations and NGOs like those in
ACRON. Your organizations play key, even decisive roles in building
democracy and rule of law, promoting economic development, reforming
education, and strengthening civil society around the world.
You provide expertise in electoral processes, investigations of human
rights abuses, transitional justice arrangements, and dialogues across
political, religious, and cultural lines -- areas where the
involvement of foreign governments, including ours, might be viewed as
interference in internal affairs.
In the darkest corners of the world, you have been the eyes, the ears,
and often the conscience of international community. Within this
country, you have been steadfast advocates for international
engagement, especially in the face of those who would've had us pull
back in the wake of the Cold War.
On behalf of our government, I want to thank you for these efforts. I
am proud to share this panel with you and I look forward to the
upcoming discussions of how we can expand our cooperation in pursuit
of a more peaceful and prosperous world.
Thank you.
(end text)
(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S.
Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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