Military

DATE=July 19, 2002

TYPE=Dateline

NUMBER=7-36532

TITLE=Toppling Saddam Hussein

BYLINE=Judith Latham

TELEPHONE=202-619-3464

DATELINE=Washington

EDITOR=Neal Lavon

CONTENT=

DISK: DATELINE THEME [PLAYED IN STUDIO, FADED UNDER DATELINE HOST VOICE OR PROGRAMMING MATERIAL]

HOST: In recent days, public debate has intensified over the wisdom and feasibility of U-S military involvement in toppling the government of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. Analysts differ on the merits of a U-S led military campaign and they question what kind of government might replace the Iraqi dictator. With this Dateline report on the prospects for toppling Saddam Hussein, here's Judith Latham.

JL: President George W. Bush has consistently maintained that the Iraqi leader and his weapons of mass destruction pose a major threat to the United States and the rest of the world. Speaking at the National Security Agency last month [6/4/02], President Bush reiterated his position that the government in Baghdad must go.

TAPE: CUT #1: BUSH [FM FDCH POLITICAL TRANSCRIPTS] 0:25

"My strong desire to protect our homeland is of paramount importance. And I think people understand my position on these closed regimes that harbor and desire to have weapons of mass destruction. And as I said in my speech, we'll use all the tools at our disposal to deal with these nations that hate America and hate our freedoms. And one option of course is the military option."

JL: At a news conference earlier this month [7/9/02], the president said the world would be a "safer place without the Iraqi leader," and that it was the "stated policy" of his administration to "have a regime change." A few days earlier [7/5/02], The New York Times had reported that a U-S "military planning document" was calling for "air, land and sea-based forces to attack Iraq from three directions" . in a "campaign to topple" the Iraqi president. But, it also stated that "none of the countries identified in the document" had been "formally consulted about playing such a role."

The Jordanian government issued a "swift and firm" denial that it would participate in any such military venture, says V-O-A correspondent Mahmoud Zawawi [MAH-mood zah-WAH-wee] in Amman.

TAPE: CUT #2: ZAWAWI [FM LATHAM} 0:43

"The Prime Minister held a news conference last week and he categorically denied that Jordan was involved in any way in any plan, military or otherwise, against Iraq. He also categorically denied the presence of American troops in Jordan. The public reaction is definitely against any military attack. Public sentiment here toward the Iraqi people is very strong as another Arab people. However, the popularity that President Saddam Hussein used to enjoy in Jordan 10 years ago is no longer there. But there is a distinction between supporting the Iraqi regime and supporting the Iraqi people."

JL: Last week, Kuwait also denied reports that it might be used as a "staging area" for a U-S attack on Iraq. On the other hand, Turkey's earlier position of non-cooperation with the United States in its plans to topple Saddam Hussein appears to be changing, according to the chief of V-O-A's Turkish Service, Taclan Suerdem.

TAPE: CUT #3: SUERDEM [FM LATHAM] 0:37

"Turkish leaders share the concerns the United States has about Saddam Hussein advocating the development and use of weapons of mass destruction. Saddam's regime in the past supported anti-Turkish terrorist movements by the P-K-K the Kurdistan Worker's Party. Now Turkey is concerned that they should be consulted very closely by the United States. They don't want to be faced by a situation of waking up one morning and finding out from C-N-N that the United States has started bombing Iraqi cities and military installations. They made this very clear."

JL: Taclan Suerdem says it appears that U-S Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz's visit to Turkey last week went a "long way to calm Turkish fears" during his visit.

TAPE: CUT #4: SUERDEM [FM LATHAM] 0:12

"It sounds as if he has come out of Turkey assured that Turkey will support the United States by offering the use of Turkish military bases. Namely the famous Incerlik [IN-jer-lick] air base, near the border with Iraq [now used by the U-S and Britain to enforce the no-fly zone over northern Iraq]."

JL: But Taclan Suerdem notes that Turkey still has concerns about what may emerge after Saddam is removed from Baghdad.

TAPE: CUT #5, SUERDEM [FM LATHAM] 0:15

"The Turks have always been concerned about a war in Iraq on two points the economic effects on the fragile Turkish economy. And Turkey is concerned that Iraq may be split into different pieces, and in the north the Kurds will attempt to declare a Kurdish state."

JL: Mr. Wolfowitz, according to Taaclan Suerdem, assured Turkey that the United States "will not accept" the creation of an independent Kurdish state within the current borders of Iraq. The leaders of the two main Kurdish factions administering northern Iraq recently met [7/10/02] with U-S officials in Germany to discuss a possible Kurdish role in the effort to oust Saddam Hussein.

Massoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, said that Kurdish officials want to protect the new freedoms of their people. And Barham Salih [BAHR-hahm SAHL-lee], a top official from Jalal Talabani's [ja-LAL tal-a-BAN-nee] Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, says Kurds are generally skeptical about the benefits of once again supporting a revolt against Saddam. He recalls that thousands of Kurds died after the 1991 Gulf War when a U-S led coalition failed to intervene against Iraqi forces.

TAPE: CUT #6: SALIH [FM ZAMAN] 0:16

"The Americans have been good to us over the past 10 years. They have been protecting our country from Iraqi onslaughts. We have had many misgivings about American policy. But we are fundamentally interested in our own interest here and our own interests lie in a democratic Iraq."

JL: Both European and Arab governments have strongly opposed using military force to topple Saddam Hussein, despite their dislike for the Iraqi leader. However, British Prime Minister Tony Blair says Iraq poses what he calls an "enormous threat" to global security. Mr. Blair told a joint meeting of parliamentary committee leaders last week [7/16/02] that Iraq's program to develop weapons of mass destruction is the next major challenge facing the West.

TAPE: CUT #7: BLAIR [FM DRUDGE. 2-292073] 0:16

"I think they pose an enormous threat to the world. How we deal with that, however, is an open question. And that is why I constantly say to people there are no decisions that have been made in relation to Iraq at all. But there is not doubt that Iraq poses a threat in respect to weapons of mass destruction. And there is no doubt that this issue is an issue that should be dealt with."

JL: Michael Hudson, professor of international relations and Arab studies at Georgetown University, says he regards a U-S led military campaign against Iraq as likely and it may come early next year. But he urges caution.

TAPE: CUT #8: HUDSON [FM LATHAM] 0:40

"I think it's a measure that needs to be very carefully thought out. I don't think it will be an easy campaign, and I don't think we have a very clear idea of what would happen afterwards. I think the legal grounds for an aggression are not very strong. It would have to be justified in terms of preemptive self-defense under international law. This is clearly a brutal regime that has done some brutal things. Does the United States as the most powerful country in the world have an obligation to undo bad regimes, and if so, should we be trying to undo all the bad regimes in the region?"

JL: Professor Hudson says it's "clear" that an American pre-emptive military action against Iraq has little international support.

TAPE: CUT #9: HUDSON [FM LATHAM] 0:34

"The European allies are manifestly uncomfortable with it. The Japanese government is lukewarm. The Arab governments themselves are opposed. The U-S government is now trying to line up support from Turkey. But Turkey is ambivalent and at the moment is undergoing a governmental crisis of its own. The government of Kuwait has little choice in the matter but to support an American action. For Jordan, it's political dynamite back home for King Abdullah. The Saudis are extremely negative, so it doesn't leave you a lot."

JL: Professor Michael Hudson of Georgetown University says that most Iraqi specialists agree it would be "extremely difficult" to put together a new government if Saddam were to be toppled.

TAPE: CUT #10: HUDSON [FM LATHAM] 0:30

"There's no point in going through the military exercise if you're simply going to replace Saddam with his son [Uday] and if you're going to leave the structure of the regime intact. Iraq is not the same as Afghanistan. In Afghanistan the power of the state government has never been very strong; it's quite the opposite in the case of Iraq. It means being able to dismantle that regime. The possibilities of endless civil strife and instability are very real."

JL: Gary Schmitt, director of the Project for a New American Century, a public policy institute focusing on foreign affairs and defense issues, says it's essential for the United States to remain politically "engaged" in Iraq long after Saddam is gone.

TAPE: CUT #11: SCHMITT [FM LATHAM] 0:35

"I think the administration is going to have to face the fact that the ultimate success of any effort to remove Saddam and his regime will depend upon replacing it with a decent political order. This is not going to be a case where we topple Saddam and are out within a year. We will be in Iraq, along with our allies, with troops for years. The bad news is that this is a regime that has completely eliminated civil society. A lot of the institutions will need to be rebuilt and that's a long-term task. [OPT] We've had good success in rebuilding countries. After World War II we rebuilt Japan and Germany [END OPT]."

JL: But Mr. Schmitt says, removing Saddam Hussein is necessary, it's doable, and if the United States remains engaged for the long haul, Iraqi society can be reshaped. He says that in the end he thinks the European allies "won't oppose" the United States and even some Arab states will privately support a change of Iraqi leadership.

TAPE B: MUSIC: SCHUBERT'S "MARCHE MILITAIRE," EVGENY KISSIN, PIANO [SNEAK UP AT ASTERISK IN FOLLOWING GRAFF, BRING UP AFTER SIGN-OFF AND PLAY AT LIBERTY]

JL: Some members of the U-S Congress are now calling on the Bush administration to provide a public accounting of its plans. And the Senate Foreign Relations Committee intends to hold hearings on Iraq this summer. But among both Republicans and Democrats there appears to be broad bipartisan support for ousting Saddam Hussein. *And, if other options fail, that may entail a military invasion.

For Dateline, I'm Judith Latham.