Military

DATE=July 3, 2002

TYPE=Dateline

NUMBER=7-36485

TITLE=A New U-S Middle East Policy

BYLINE=Judith Latham

TELEPHONE=202-619-3464

DATELINE=Washington

EDITOR=Neal Lavon

CONTENT=

DISK: DATELINE THEME [PLAYED IN STUDIO, FADED UNDER DATELINE HOST VOICE OR PROGRAMMING MATERIAL]

ANNCR: President Bush's recent policy speech [6/24/02] on the way to peace in the Middle East elicited a mixed response. Israel welcomed his call for a change in the Palestinian leadership while Arab and European reaction was muted. Middle East specialists in the United States also have voiced strong reactions to what they consider the strengths and weaknesses of the new policy. Today's Dateline examines the "New U-S Policy in the Middle East." Here's Judith Latham.

JL: President Bush said it was time for a change in the Middle East. In a long-awaited speech delivered last month, he laid out tough conditions for the creation of an independent Palestinian state. Among them was a call for Palestinians to adopt sweeping reforms and to elect new leaders.

TAPE: CUT #1: BUSH [FM STEARNS/WOLFSON] 0:34

"My vision is two states living side by side in peace and security. There is simply no way to achieve that peace until all parties fight terror. .Peace requires a new and different Palestinian leadership so that a Palestinian state can be born. I call on the Palestinian people to elect new leaders, leaders not compromised by terror."

JL: Henry Siegman [SEEG-man], Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, has worked for many years to advance the cause of Middle East peace. He says critics of President Bush's speech may have "overlooked some of its strengths."

TAPE: CUT #2: SIEGMAN [FM LATHAM] 0:40

"He stated in his speech that the Israeli presence in the West Bank and Gaza is clearly an occupation, thus rejecting [Israeli Prime Minister Ariel] Sharon's notion, which he advanced recently in an op-ed article in The New York Times. That Israel is there because the West Bank and Gaza are 'disputed' territories not 'occupied' territories. The President has rejected that, and I consider that to be very important. The President has also said that the occupation must end. And if it continues, then Israel risks losing 'its identity and its democracy.' These are important things for an American president to say."

JL: But Mr. Siegman adds that the importance of these statements was "overwhelmed" by what he calls some "negatives" in the President's speech.

TAPE: CUT #3: SIEGMAN [FM LATHAM] 0:55

"The President seemed to say that it is perfectly okay for Prime Minister Sharon and the I-D-F [Israeli Defense Force] to proceed with its reoccupation of the entire West Bank, so long as Palestinians don't meet certain conditions that he set out. Those conditions entail not only a replacement of Arafat as the head of the Palestinian Authority but also thoroughgoing reform of the various Palestinian institutions and putting an end to terror. At the same time, he did not spell out a roadmap that the U-S is prepared to support that would lead to a non-violent realization of Palestinian statehood. And consequently he failed to provide Palestinians with the incentive they would need."

JL: Furthermore, Henry Siegman says, if Israelis viewed the speech as an "endorsement of the current policies of the Sharon government," the consequence will probably be an "ever-increasing cycle of violence."

TAPE: CUT #4: SIEGMAN [FM LATHAM] 0:19

"And that kind of instability will threaten to engulf the entire region, not just Israelis and Palestinians but other neighboring governments. American interests obviously are profoundly threatened, and it is hardly in the American interest to ignore those dangers."

JL: Henry Siegman, who was head of the American Jewish Congress for 16 years, says American Jewish groups worked hard to make sure President Bush knew about their support for Prime Minister Sharon's views.

TAPE: CUT #5: SIEGMAN [FM LATHAM] 0:42

"There is no question that there are powerful domestic considerations that moved the President to make the kind of speech that he did. Incidentally, I do not necessarily agree that it was his intention to tell Sharon he should feel free to continue doing what he is doing, but I think that is unfortunately how it sounds. Most Jewish organizations have exerted pressure on the administration not to confront Sharon and not to seek to prevent the tough measures he has taken in the West Bank, including the reoccupation of the territories, until Palestinian terror has come to an end and Arafat has been replaced."

JL: Other analysts say the president was merely stating what he thought and deeply felt about the region. Henry Siegman of the Council on Foreign Relations notes that Christian fundamentalists, who back the President and his political party, joined ranks with Jewish groups to support a pro-Israel stance.

Malcolm Hoenlein [HOHN-lyne], director of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, describes Mr. Bush's speech as "very positive." He says the President set goals that could "truly transform the region and make possible a just and lasting peace."

TAPE: CUT #6: HOENLEIN [FM LATHAM] 0:14

"If we are successful in establishing a democratic system with accountability and with an end to corruption and transparency, that will pave the way for Israel to have the confidence for the concessions and risks that will be inherent in any kind of final negotiations."

JL: Malcom Hoenlein, whose umbrella group is made up of 54 American Jewish organizations, says he disagrees with critics who say American Jewish groups exerted strong political pressure on the administration.

TAPE: CUT #7: HOENLEIN [FM LATHAM] 0:16

"I can tell you that it is untrue. The fact is that this is a process that was totally internal in the administration. They did consult with people. They spoke to members of Congress, and they spoke to other people in various interested parties about it. But, the bottom-line decision was the President's."

JL: Mr. Hoenlein says he is "confident" the Palestinians will not re-elect Yasser Arafat in January. If they do, he says, then they will simply have to "pay the price."

TAPE: CUT #8: HOENLEIN [FM LATHAM] 0:18

"If they choose to continue with leaders who have been associated with terrorism, then the world community particularly the United States will send them a message. We do not believe we should be supporting regimes that have proved themselves to be corrupt and have misused funds and that have been directly associated with terrorism when we're fighting it everywhere else in the world."

JL: James Akins, former U-S Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, disagrees with Mr. Hoenlein. He believes the main weakness of the President's Middle East policy is to demand the removal of Yasser Arafat.

TAPE: CUT #9: AKINS [FM LATHAM] 0:13

"Arafat after all was elected by the Palestinian people. Although subsequently he became extremely unpopular, I think the attacks on him by Sharon and by the Americans have basically strengthened him. If there were an election today, he would probably win again."

JL: Former U-S Ambassador to Saudi Arabia James Akins says he is also concerned that the President's apparent support of Israel may endanger pro-American voices throughout the Muslim world. Robert Lieber, Professor of Government and Foreign Affairs at Georgetown University, describes President Bush's speech as offering a "broad vision" for the Middle East. He calls it "incisive" and "appropriately tough-minded."

TAPE: CUT #10: LIEBER [FM LATHAM] 0:43

"I mean he identifies the core problem at this point and the chief obstacle to peace. And that is the nature of the current Palestinian leadership on the West Bank and in Gaza. Until and unless that changes, progress toward any kind of solution will simply not be possible. As far as the President's proposal is concerned, it's up to the Palestinians now. It's important that they select a leadership that is willing to renounce violence and terrorism. Once they do that, the President's proposal requires some very important steps on the part of the Israelis, including stopping settlements, accepting a two-state solution, and withdrawing from Gaza, and much of the West Bank."

JL: [OPT] Professor Lieber says he thinks much of the criticism of the President's speech is unfounded.

TAPE: CUT #11: LIEBER [FM LATHAM] :26

"It was a very clear recognition that Yasser Arafat and those around him are not prepared for peace, are not willing to end the conflict, or stop terror. Moreover, they were not willing to keep agreements that Arafat had made from Oslo in 1993 right up to the present. I think this was intensified by Arafat's recent role. For example, the funding of the arms from Iran on a ship that was intercepted in January of this year." [END OPT]

JL: Robert Lieber, Professor of Government and Foreign Affairs at Georgetown University.

Former Assistant Secretary of State for Middle East Affairs Richard Murphy says President Bush's "vision of the Middle East with two states living side by side within secure and recognized boundaries" has both strengths and weaknesses.

TAPE: CUT #12: MURPHY [FM LATHAM] 0:38

"He described his conviction that it could come about with a free market economy and with a leadership that is dedicated to the development of its own country. I think the strength was deepening an understanding of his vision. The weakness was that the vision was left without any bridge to get from the present day in the Middle East to the future that he foresaw. There was no sense of pressure other than to get the present leadership replaced. And that's where the speech has made the members of its audience in the Middle East uneasy."

JL: Ambassador Murphy says, if the Palestinians re-elect Yasser Arafat as their leader in January, it will pose what he calls a "dilemma the administration has no ready answer for today." Although President Bush seems to have adopted a Middle East policy similar to Israel's regarding a change in the Palestinian leadership, Ambassador Murphy says, his position is not inconsistent with some of his earlier views.

TAPE: CUT #13: MURPHY [FM LATHAM] 0:27

"The speech obviously was received with deep pleasure, even delight, by the Sharon government. They've said as much in their own press. But let's remember that President Bush from Day One of his administration was unwilling to meet with Yasser Arafat, was unwilling to acknowledge his presence at the United Nations General Assembly sessions they both attended in the fall. So, it's consistent. He has been very skeptical about Yasser Arafat's commitment to making peace."

JL: Given President Bush's views, Ambassador Richard Murphy says it's "hard to imagine" how Secretary of State Colin Powell will be able to engage, should the administration desire to do so, with Yasser Arafat in the months ahead. But the Bush administration, he says, will continue to deal with Arab governments that for many years have played a major role in influencing the Palestinian Authority. As the former Assistant Secretary of State points out, President Bush has laid out the choices "very starkly." Whether events in the region will support his views or cause them to alter remains to be seen.

"Pros and Cons of U-S Policy in the Middle East"* was the subject of today's Dateline. I'm Judith Latham.

TAPE B: CUT #1: MUSIC: BEETHOVEN'S SYMPHONY NO. 9, FOURTH MOVEMENT. Berlin Philharmonic, Herbert von Karajan conducting (SNEAK AT * IN PRECEDING GRAPH, BRING UP AND PLAY AT LIBERTY.)