Military

DATE=May 14, 2002

TYPE=Dateline

NUMBER=7-36297

TITLE=Sidelining Mr. Arafat

BYLINE=Judith Latham

TELEPHONE=202-619-3464

DATELINE=Washington

EDITOR=Neal Lavon

CONTENT=

DISK: DATELINE THEME [PLAYED IN STUDIO, FADED UNDER DATELINE HOST VOICE OR PROGRAMMING MATERIAL]

HOST: Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's release from his compound in Ramallah boosted his popularity worldwide although his initial foray into the West Bank brought a mixed reception. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon insists that Mr. Arafat is not an acceptable negotiating partner for Middle East peace but the United States maintains he is an elected leader and should be included in peace talks. Today's Dateline explores some reactions to Israel's rejection of Mr. Arafat. Here's Judith Latham.

JL: During the Israeli Prime Minister's recent trip to Washington, he made clear that he regards Mr. Arafat as an impediment to peace. Nathan Gutman, Washington correspondent for the independent Israeli newspaper Haaretz, says Ariel Sharon does not regard Mr. Arafat as a "legitimate" leader.

TAPE: CUT #1: GUTMAN [FM BODNAR] 0:51

"Israel will not negotiate with Yasser Arafat and is not ready right now to discuss a final status agreement. The emphasis of the Sharon plan is that, first of all, we have to rebuild the Palestinian Authority, rebuild the relationship of trust between Israelis and Palestinians and get used to the fact that Arafat is not a legitimate leader of the Palestinian people. (OPT) That is Sharon's view. Now, he is willing to promise a Palestinian state, as he has done before, but that is only in the very long term. And actually, that doesn't consist of a pragmatic program right now." We have to remember also that Sharon is part of a national unity government, and he is restrained from the right and from the left. From the right he has parties that are not willing to negotiate with Arafat and are not willing to hear about a Palestinian state. On the left he has the Labor Party, which is telling him to negotiate with Arafat and promise the Palestinians a state right now as Foreign Minister Shimon Peres has already done." (END OPT)

JL: Nathan Gutman, Washington correspondent for the independent Israel newspaper Haaretz.

As the international community tries to push for negotiations with Yasser Arafat, the Israeli Defense Minister [Binyamin Ben-Eliezer] said earlier this week that he has "no confidence" in Yasser Arafat's leading the Palestinians to peace. Professor of Middle Eastern and International Affairs at Sarah Lawrence College, Fawaz Gerges [Zher-shes], says he sees Israel and United States as pursuing different "tracks" in an effort to resolve the dilemma.

TAPE: CUT #2: GERGES [FM BODNAR] 1:00

"The first track is what I call a consistent attempt by the Likud-led government to either isolate or kill Arafat. The Israeli Prime Minister in particular, Ariel Sharon, has made it very clear that he would like to get rid of Arafat either by expelling him from Palestine or by killing him. Obviously, the United States objects to this line of thinking. While Sharon's strategy focuses on isolating and bypassing and of course 'marginalizing' Arafat, I think the United States still considers Arafat the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. It seems to me that U-S and Israel strategy appears to be focused on encouraging the emergence of what I call an 'alternative leadership' to that of Arafat by insisting on structurally reforming the Palestine National Authority and instituting real changes. I think the goal is to find a way around Arafat without unleashing unpredictable forces that might lead to further escalation of violence."

JL: Fawaz Gerges [Zher-shes], Professor of Middle Eastern and International Affairs at Sarah Lawrence College in New York State.

Robert Lieber, professor of foreign affairs at Georgetown University, says Yasser Arafat is simply not a reliable peace

partner. (OPT) And so, he believes little progress toward a peace agreement can be made so long as Arafat is the leader of the Palestinians. (END OPT)

TAPE: CUT #3: LIEBER [FM LATHAM] 1:21

"There's a great tragedy here because nothing can be done with him, and nothing can be done without him. That is, he has demonstrated amply over the past decade and indeed over a 30-year career that he is duplicitous. He does not keep solemn agreements that he makes. He has not only tolerated terror but has sometimes been complicit with it and even been involved in financing it. Therefore, it's very hard to imagine that a leader with that record, who is a corrupt authoritarian as well, which is harmful to his own people, is going to be a viable partner for peace. The ultimate problem, though, is that he is the Palestinians' leader, and only the Palestinian people and their elites can be the ones to choose whoever speaks for them. (OPT) The question is what next, which is why there is this terrible dilemma. Nothing can be done with him, but nothing can be done without him. The best that might be hoped for is that pressure from major Arab states and possibly from different elements within the Palestinian population might lead to his being made more of a symbol. More like at king if you like with actual power, negotiating authority, and influence being held by others who are more pragmatic and who are prepared to negotiate an end to the terror and take steps toward a genuine peace and the solution of this long and brutal Palestinian-Israeli conflict." (END OPT)

JL: One of the principal points of difference between the United States and Israel in the Middle East peace process is the United States refuses to call Mr. Arafat "irrelevant." But, Professor Lieber says, the United States has limited options in trying to bring about peace in the region so long as Yasser Arafat is the recognized leader of the Palestinians.

TAPE: CUT #4: LIEBER [FM LATHAM] 1:10

"(BEGIN OPT) The United States has taken the view that it's not up to America to pick the leader of the Palestinians. It should not, and it cannot. (END OPT) What the United States can do is to make very clear to the key Arab states to those states that have made peace with Israel that the kind of behavior of Arafat and the more hard-line Palestinian elements is disastrous. (BEGIN OPT) It is leading away from peace, not toward it. Arafat made a deliberate decision to blow up the peace process 18 months ago. There have been some indications speeches by individuals, articles in the press, and so on suggesting that this policy of suicide bombings has been destructive to the Palestinians themselves. And it's making things worse, not better. So, there is the possibility that other figures could emerge either now or later who are more pragmatic and who understand what it will take to make peace with Israel. The real problem with Arafat is that there is growing evidence that, instead of wanting to have a Palestinian state living in peace alongside Israel, he wants a Palestinian state in place of Israel. So, I think the level of trust in Arafat is very poor. It therefore makes it hard to see how negotiations and a reduction in violence can proceed under his leadership." (END OPT)

JL: Robert Lieber, professor of foreign affairs at Georgetown University in Washington. I'll be back with more on the question of "Sidelining Mr. Arafat."

You're listening to Dateline heard 44 minutes past most odd U-T-C hours on VOA News Now. I'm Judith Latham.

Middle East expert and former State Department official Robert Pelletreau [PELL-uh-troe] told me the matter of Mr. Arafat's participation in peace negotiations with the Israelis is complicated.

TAPE: CUT #5: PELLETREAU Q&A [FM LATHAM] 7:17

"First of all, the Israelis have no confidence in Mr. Arafat. Many Israelis do identify him with the increase in Palestinian terrorism. And they do, I think, with some legitimacy, blame him for not working hard enough to clamp down on terrorism from Hamas and from Islamic Jihad. So, the Sharon government has called him 'irrelevant' and has said they will not participate with him in any peace negotiations. On the other hand, they have stopped short of expelling him or imprisoning him or even assassinating him all of which they could have done. In fact, Sharon's activity in occupying Ramallah and imprisoning Arafat, making him a hostage, only had the effect of increasing his popularity, both in the Palestinian community and in the Arab world at large. So, the Israelis have not really been successful in sidelining Mr. Arafat at all. The United States sees no immediate alternative to Mr. Arafat on the horizon. (0PT) And, for that reason, Secretary Powell met with him in fact, met with him twice during his recent trip to the region. Beyond that, the United States is working with Arab governments that support a peace process to rebuild a Palestinian security capability and to rebuild the Palestinian Authority as a viable negotiating partner. Exactly what roll Mr. Arafat will play in a rebuilt Palestinian Authority in this regard is not yet clear. But he is certainly going to be a big part of it. (END OPT)

JL: Now that he has been released and now that he has also taken some part in the negotiations for the lifting of the siege of the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem, how important is he? How important is he considered, not only by the Palestinians but also by the United States?

RP: Up to this point, he has been the symbol of Palestinian identity and nationalism. And he has been the one who has been able to make final decisions on a Palestinian position. (OPT) There is nobody else who has been able to do that. (END OPT) And there is nobody on the immediate horizon who looms as a successor to Mr. Arafat. And that is in part his great strength. (OPT) He has no alternative, and he continues to have a very accurate fingertip feel for Palestinian public opinion. (END OPT)

JL: If Prime Minister Sharon should continue to refuse to negotiate with him, what progress can there be toward peace? (OPT) How much can other negotiators do in the absence of the stamp of approval of the Prime Minister of Israel and of the leader of the Palestinians? (END OPT)

RP: Well, if you have a peace negotiation where there are Palestinians and Israelis, who come together with Americans or other third parties, that kind of conversation is certainly going to be referred back to Prime Minister Sharon on one side and to Mr. Arafat on the other side. Before a final agreement can be reached. (OPT) Others can negotiate, if they are delegated that responsibility, but (END OPT) they can't reach final decisions without Arafat's approval.

JL: Does that mean that, in practice, the Israeli government, like it or not, will have to deal with Mr. Arafat?

RP: The paradoxical thing is that the Israeli government is already dealing with Mr. Arafat. The Israeli foreign minister, Mr. Peres, met with one of Mr. Arafat's principal aides over the weekend outside of Israel. And in any future security cooperation, which Israel reportedly wants and certainly needs, they will have to deal indirectly with Mr. Arafat. So, there is a certain amount of theater going on here.

JL: And perhaps a certain amount of politics? On Sunday, there was a vote in the Likud Party, which Prime Minister Sharon heads, but which Benjamin Netanyahu the Former Prime Minister would like to wrest the leadership of again, that there should be no Palestinian state. What does it mean this frontal attack on the prime minister by his own party?

RP: Mr. Sharon is the prime minister now. He will continue to be prime minister until the next Israeli election in the fall of 2003, unless there is a Knesset vote of no confidence, which would have to include a broader coalition than just the Likud. We should not place more importance on this Likud central committee action than it warrants. (OPT) It is not the voice of the people of Israel. There is an active rivalry going on between the former Prime Minister, Bibi Netanyahu, and Sharon. Netanyahu sees himself as the successor to Mr. Sharon in the next election. I think that is quite likely, given Sharon's age and given the fact that he fact that he did suffer a defeat in the central committee vote on a Palestinian state. (END OPT) What it probably means is that he is less likely than we would have been otherwise to enter something called 'permanent status' negotiations. In reality, I've never thought there was much difference between Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Sharon on what they see with respect to a Palestinian state. I don't think either of them supports it. (OPT) Mr. Netanyahu says so clearly. And Mr. Sharon, because he's the Prime Minister and is dealing with the United States and the rest of the world, just says, "Oh, it's premature to consider that question." But at bottom, I think you'd find their views very similar. (END OPT)

JL: Given Mr. Arafat's shortcomings, given the problems within the Palestinian Authority, and given the Israeli government's reluctance to negotiate with Mr. Arafat, what hope and expectation do you have for some progress being made?

RP: I think this is a long process. They're talking about a unified security force. They're talking about a visit by George Tenet, our director of the C-I-A to get that process really launched. It's only after that happens and that is going to take some time that we then reach the question of how you rehabilitate the rest of the Palestinian structure so that there is a potential negotiating partner. Because today there is not. (OPT) There is no confidence at all between the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli government or the Israeli people. The other thing that is germane is how committed is the United States to this course. It looks to me today that the United States is going to be involved in this effort along with Arab states that support peace. (END OPT)

JL: Robert Pelletreau, former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, has also served as U-S Ambassador to Egypt, Tunisia, and Bahrain. As President Bush just signed an arms accord with Russian President Vladimir Putin [vlah-DEE-meer POO-tin] and a U.S.-Russian summit is on the horizon, Middle East diplomacy may take an unaccustomed back seat. But events in the region may bring the problems of the Middle East back to center stage in both Washington and other world capitals. For Dateline, I'm Judith Latham.