SLUG: 1-01119 The Future of Afghanistan 05-13-02
TYPE=ON THE LINE
NUMBER=1-01119 SHORT #1
TITLE=THE FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN
EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY -- 619-0037
CONTENT= INSERTS ARE IN AUDIO SERVICES & DALET
THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE
Host: This is On the Line, and I'm ---------. A recent missile attack on a Jalalabad airport has highlighted the ongoing threat of factional fighting in Afghanistan. Observers say that as Afghanistan moves toward a more permanent government, warlords must be brought under control.
Policy analyst David Isby says the best way to head off civil strife in Afghanistan is to keep neighboring countries from stirring up trouble.
Isby: There is going to be violence in Afghanistan. There will be people stealing aid shipments. The key thing is making sure this does not affect the political process in Kabul. The most important thing is to make sure that the people who are challenging central authority don't get aid, sustenance, weapons, money, from outside Afghanistan because that would be a stronger threat.
Host: Elie Krakowski is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council. He says the U-S should continue to discourage outside states from meddling in Afghanistan.
Krakowski: If the United States gives indications that it really would like to get out of there, that it would like to turn over decision-making on reconstruction to international organizations, then I think the neighboring states are going to see a tremendous opportunity to continue [to meddle]. [But] I think that if the United States exercises full leadership in this and remains involved and indicates it wants to remain involved. It will be able to mitigate, lessen, rechannel, redirect the external involvement, especially that of Iran and Pakistan.
Host: Quadir Amiryar is an adjunct professor of political science at George Washington University. He says more international peacekeepers will be necessary until the new Afghan government is better established.
Amiryar: In the absence of the peacekeepers, actually there's no state. There are thirty provinces, each one larger than Kabul. There was an impression that these security forces would be extended and expanded to major cities, Herat, Mazar, Jalalabad, Khandahar. Security is the critical issue there, not only physical security but mental security.
Host: An immediate security challenge will be to protect the tribal leaders who will gather in June for a loya jirga, a grand council that will choose a new transitional government for Afghanistan. For On the Line, I'm -----------.
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