Military

DATE=4/14/02

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=SUDAN / ANALYSIS

NUMBER=5-51424

BYLINE=WILLIAM EAGLE

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

NOT VOICED:

INTRO: Analysts say Sudan's Islamist government has been redefining its image in recent months, but not always successfully. Recent media reports have shown it condemns terrorist attacks on the United States, but approves suicide bombings against Israel. From Washington, reporter William Eagle takes a look at some contradictory views of the Sudanese government.

TEXT: Shortly after the September 11th attacks, Sudan President General Omar Hassan al-Bashir was among the first to pledge to cooperate with the United States in fighting terrorism.

Khartoum has handed over information on the al Qaida terrorist network and its leader, Osama Bin Laden. He lived in Sudan as a businessman and financial supporter of the government for five-years in the mid-1990s. Sudan deported him under pressure from the West.

But in early April, Sudan's Popular Defense Force announced it would train volunteer fighters to support war against Israel. Sudanese television said the camps were set up by a directive of the president.

To some, the announcement is not consistent with Sudan's pledge to renounce sponsoring violence. But for others, Sudan's position is part of the battle between moderates and hard liners in the 12-year-old Islamic government of General al-Bashir.

Mohammed Salih is a Professor of Politics of Development at the Institute of Social Studies at The Hague.

/// OPT /// Professor Salih notes that President Bashir has said that he does not consider Islamic armed outfits like Hamas or Hezbollah to be terrorists, but freedom fighters. For years, the Palestinian movement Hamas has had a permanent base in Khartoum. Professor Salih says there have been training camps in Sudan for Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and the military group linked to Yasser Arafat, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade. /// END OPT ///

He says President Bashir and many military men received training in the United States. But he also says the government lacks popular support and depends on radical Islamist groups for legitimacy.

/// 1st SALIH ACT ///

It is a reflection of the government of Sudan today. It consists of different political forces, some of which are Islamic and fundamentalist and militant, like the vice president. Some are moderate like the Minister of Foreign Affairs. [There is] also a group of people who are army officers who are secularists. So you have a lot of political trends that are playing out.

/// END ACT ///

Others remain suspicious of Sudan's efforts to modify its image.

/// OPT /// Sudan's domestic media often talks about conducting a holy war against the non-Islamic south, and also focuses almost exclusively on what it calls the slaughter of civilians in Afghanistan by U-S warplanes. Popular Afghani criticism of bin Laden or the ousted Taleban is not shown. /// END OPT ///

Gill Lusk of the Africa Confidential newsletter in London disagrees with those who say there are moderates in the government or military. She says the first thing the government did when it came to power 12-years ago was to purge many senior officers. She says there are few military men left who are not Islamist.

/// OPT /// Ms. Lusk says the government's ideology and commitments have not changed.

/// OPT 1st LUSK ACT ///

The most obvious manifestation [of bin Laden's presence] for [ordinary Sudanese] has been the so-called "Afghan Arabs" the foreign Arabs from other countries who came to Sudan. Many are still very visible they run things like long distance [trucking] driven [by their supporters, former Mujahadins]. They have taken over the only port, Port Sudan. There are still Hamas and Hezbollah cafes that also came with [bin Laden]. It is all part of what you might call the Islamic International.

/// END ACT // END OPT ///

Many analysts say Sudan still plays a key role in the military wing of Islam.

/// OPT /// Professor Salih says several Sudanese institutions train Africans in the creation of Islamic states. These include the Islamic University and the University of the Holy Koran and Islamic Sciences in Ondurman and the Islamic University for Africa in Khartoum.

He says Sudan also founded four Islamic Fronts in Eastern Africa, and funds numerous national groups devoted to the violent overthrow of established governments, including the Islamic Party of Kenya, and the Islamic Jihad groups of Zanzibar, Eritrea, and Somalia. /// END OPT ///

Gill Lusk says the Sudanese government also plays an active role in Islamist organizations.

/// 2nd LUSK ACT ///

The Sudanese are very important in the Islamist network. They are also very low profile, but essential to the running of it in Africa and in other countries. You will often find that key people are Sudanese within Islamic charities or parties used as fronts. The Sudanese have an exceptionally large number of skilled people.

/// END ACT ///

But John Prendergast, the co-director of the Africa program of the Washington-based International Crisis Group says Sudan has for the most part moderated its foreign policy. He attributes the change to the discovery of oil in southern Sudan.

/// 1st PRENDERGAST ACT///

... it changed the nature of Sudan's external alliances because the Sudan government no longer had to rely on Middle Eastern sources of, particularly, terrorist organizations or those who support terrorist organizations...

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Prendergast also says oil may make the government more anxious to reach a peace agreement.

/// 2nd PRENDERGAST ACT ///

Most of the [newly discovered oil deposits are] further south than where they are exploiting it now, which they can not get to because of the conflict. So the imperative to get to those oil reserves further south may drive the government to the peace table because they are not going to be able to pacify the region no matter how brutal their military tactics become. They will have to have a peace deal to get at that oil further south.

/// END ACT ///

/// OPT /// In recent months, the United States has made progress as a mediator in the war. U-S Special Peace Envoy John Danforth helped mediate a cease-fire in the Nuba Mountains of Sudan, as well as an agreement requiring the government to allow in international monitors to protect civilians. /// END OPT ///

Mr. Prendergast says he does not think Sudan's Islamic government, with its history of radicalism, will ever embrace democracy. But he says negotiations could lead to a more inclusive government. (SIGNED)

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