Military

DATE=4/2/02

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=JONATHAN ADELMAN

NUMBER=3-115

BYLINE=TOM CROSBY

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

VOA INTERVIEW WITH JONATHAN ADELMAN

BY VOA'S TOM CROSBY - APRIL 1, 2002

As you may have heard in our newscast...Palestinian officials say Israeli forces are trying to storm Palestinian security headquarters in Ramallah widening the search for Palestinian militants on the West Bank. Earlier...a car bomb exploded in Jerusalem killing the driver of the car and a policeman who attempted to stop him. All the while...Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat remains surrounded by Israeli forces in his office with a few supporters to protect him.

We asked University of Denver Middle East specialist Jonathan Adelman if, given recent developments, the situation is spiraling completely out of control:

MR. ADELMAN: To be honest, I think it's been out of control for a long time. We've now had hundreds of Palestinian suicide bombers, and the President has made very clear that he wants to see this stop. And so I think this is what is really getting out of control here.

MR. CROSBY: But with Yasser Arafat now confined to his offices, unable to get out, unable to communicate, how can he stop anything from his side?

MR. ADELMAN: Well, it's very simple. If Yasser Arafat said, I will now go on television, here is my speech in Arabic, I will denounce suicide bombers, I will no longer say that I myself want to be a suicide bomber, believe me, within two minutes, the Israelis would be delighted to put him on television, to end the blockade, and I'm sure the administration in Washington would be very pleased, too. He's got the power; the problem is he doesn't have the will.

MR. CROSBY: You say he has the power -- does he really have control over all elements of the Palestinian organization at this point?

MR. ADELMAN: Not all. But if you remember, about six weeks ago, we had a temporary lull, where he came out and put a kind of quasi-cease-fire in place. We saw then about a 70-percent decline in suicide bombings. And I think that reflects roughly where his control is.

MR. CROSBY: Let's look at the flipside -- Ariel Sharon. What can he do at this point, or is his endgame something that we just don't understand yet?

MR. ADELMAN: No, I think his endgame is very clear. His endgame has been carefully coordinated with allies abroad. He wants to destroy the terror infrastructure. Since Yasser Arafat has not been willing to do it, his goal is to basically do it for him.

MR. CROSBY: But can the U.S. prevail on him to stop at this point?

MR. ADELMAN: I honestly don't think the United States wants him to stop at this point. Since September 11th, the American people have seen what terrorism in the Middle East is all about. And I think that there is a strong desire to say that no matter what your reason for terrorism, as the President has said, there is just no excuse for it. So I don't think the administration has been eager to see this stop. What it has been trying to do, as the President said just yesterday, is get Yasser Arafat to call off the suicide bombers. I think if that happened, then everything will change.

(End of interview.)

HOST: University of Denver Mideast expert Jonathan Adelman talking with News Now's Tom Crosby.