Military

Date=04-02-02

Type=INTERVIEW

Number=3-116

Title=MARY JANE DEEB MIDDLE EAST

BYLINE=PAT BODNAR

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTRO: Heavy fighting continues to rage between Israeli forces and Palestinian gunmen in the West Bank towns of Bethlehem and Ramallah. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has not ruled out the possibility of exiling Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, and the Israeli Army continues its assault on Yasser Arafat's security headquarters, in an operation the army says is aimed at rounding up Palestinian militants. Mary-Jane Deeb is a Middle East Expert and professor of International Relations at American University in Washington, D. C.. She tells NewsNow's Pat Bodnar, that the aim is to punish the Palestinian leader, and cut him off from his base.

PROF. DEEB: The Israeli policy is to isolate Arafat, so the Israelis have physically isolated him and now they have surrounded the compound so he's actually not under house arrest but he is really captive in his own office. And by going after his lieutenants, they are further isolating him socially and cutting him off from his own network of support upon whom he relies.

MS. BODNAR: Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has called Yasser Arafat a bitter enemy, and he has publicly now talked about expulsion. With what possible outcome?

PROF. DEEB: Well, that's the big question. Because even if Arafat is expelled and, let's say, sent to Lebanon or elsewhere, the expulsion, in and of itself, is not going to put an end to terrorism in Israel. So it is not very clear what the aim is, except to punish directly Arafat.

MS. BODNAR: If the Israeli Government, though, is also pursuing security chiefs who had been involved in cease-fire talks with Israeli security officials, who does that leave to talk to about a potential cease-fire and rounding up militants?

PROF. DEEB: That precisely is the problem. Because if there is no one left to talk to, then that means that the issue is left purely to military commanders on one side and on the other, and the issue of diplomacy is dead.

MS. BODNAR: There is an additional complication in that the Israeli Army is rounding up Palestinian militants, but young Palestinians. And the question has to be, to what end?

PROF. DEEB: The Israeli Government has said that it is trying to break up the network of terrorism. So there is an assumption among Israelis that somehow all these young people are linked to each other or linked to some kind of central command that creates terrorists. That may not be the case. And even the Defense Minister, yesterday on CNN, was expressing doubt that such a strategy is going to be effective in cutting down the terrorist network.

MS. BODNAR: Is the military solution the answer at this point, that the Israelis are turning to, while at the same time the United States is trying to push the peace card?

PROF. DEEB: The military solution is never a solution. It's only a short-term answer to a particular problem. The long-term solution must be negotiation. There must be a negotiated solution based on the concept that was expressed and agreed upon by everyone, including Sharon -- the concept of two states, the concept of the independence of the Palestinians, the autonomy of the Palestinian Territories. And that cannot be achieved by military means. It has to be a negotiated solution, in which probably we will see the United States play a very important role.

MS. BODNAR: Do you believe that U.S. troops are going to have to get in there to operate as peacekeepers at this point?

PROF. DEEB: At this point, no, I don't think that U.S. troops will be sent to the region. But, down the line, it is very possible that we will have U.N. peacekeepers and perhaps also U.S. troops. But that would come after a settlement is reached to create the two states, to separate the protagonists. (End of interview.)

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