Military

DATE=3/13/02

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=RANSTORP TERRORISM

NUMBER=3-85

BYLINE=SARAH WILLIAMS

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

//// ED'S: AVAILABLE IN DALET UNDER SOD/ENGLISH NEWS NOW INTERVIEWS IN THE FOLDER FOR TODAY OR YESTERDAY ////

INTRO: It has been six-months since the terrorist attacks on the United States last September 11th. Subsequently, the United States led an international military coalition in Afghanistan against al-Qaida terrorist forces implicated in the New York attack. The Afghan campaign is drawing to a close, but President Bush says the war against terrorism is far from over. Swedish-born Magnus Ranstorp is the deputy director of the Center for the Study of Terrorism at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. He tells VOA News Now's Sarah Williams where he thinks the campaign against terror goes next.

DR. RANSTORP: Well, the first thing is to recognize that this is going to be a very long war. Pentagon officials have estimated that they will make a serious dent in al-Qaida around the year 2008, which is six years from now. So it is a very long-term effort.

In terms of the current war on terrorism, there are a number of different facets that are currently taking place. One is to prevent al-Qaida members from fleeing to their home countries, to regroup and to reconstitute themselves. They are escaping, some of them, northward, through Tajikistan, which has been until now relatively not secured by any troops, on their way towards Chechnya. Some are fleeing also over into Kashmir and south into Pakistan. And a very troubling sign is the fact that members have been fleeing into Iran, both high-level operational al-Qaida members as well as low-ranking.

Apart from this, in preventing al-Qaida members [from escaping], there is a continuous law enforcement effort going on in Europe and all across the world in trying to unearth and detect al-Qaida members. We have right now in Afghanistan 4,000 al-Qaida and Taliban fighters who are waiting to either be transferred to their home countries or to Guantanamo Bay in Cuba. There is a realization that the war on terrorism will be going on for a very long time. Now, it depends on the global coalition, in terms of whether it will be cohesive. And that is threatened to be undermined by possible military action by the United States in expanding the war on terrorism on rogue states, particularly over Iraq.

MS. WILLIAMS: There has been a lot of debate, and there is debate going on in the United States and I assume in Europe as well, about a possible U.S. attack or some sort of action against Iraq. How willing would Britain be to participate in such an action?

DR. RANSTORP: The opposition party here in Britain of course, as well as some Labor back-benchers, have been clipping on the heels of Tony Blair, that they are refusing to admit that there will be a blank check written by Britain to the United States vis-à-vis its actions against Iraq. However, the recent visit by Dick Cheney and the statements by Tony Blair indicate that Tony Blair is full on board in supporting U.S. efforts to take the war to Iraq.

I think as the war drums get stronger, we will see more evidence presented publicly in order to justify to some of the more reluctant allies that this may be necessary, particularly evidence over the weapons of mass destruction program.

HOST: Magnus Ranstorp, the deputy director of the Center for the Study of Terrorism at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. He spoke with VOA News Now's Sarah Williams.

VNN/SW/ML/RAE