Military

DATE=02/25/02

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-51153

TITLE=NEPAL / MAOISTS

DATELINE=KATHMANDU

BYLINE=JIM TEEPLE

VOICED AT=

CONTENT=

INTRO: Maoist rebels in Nepal are stepping up their attacks. Over the

past week or so, the Maoists have killed about 170 police and army

troops, and shut down the country when they called a two-day strike.

V-O-A's Jim Teeple reports many analysts in Nepal say the recent

violence is a sign the long-simmering conflict between Maoists and

Nepal's government is becoming a full-fledged war that could take years

to resolve.

TEXT: /// ACT OF TRAFFIC UP AND UNDER //

TEXT: Cars were scarce on Kathmandu's normally traffic-clogged streets

last Friday and Saturday. Threats of Maoist violence kept public buses

and nearly all private cars off the roads.

Nepal's Maoists told people to stay home to mark the sixth anniversary

of their armed struggle to overthrow the world's only Hindu Kingdom and

replace it with a people's republic.

Hundreds of kilometers away from Kathmandu, in the Maoist stronghold of western Nepal, battles raged between the insurgents and Nepal's army and police. It was the worst violence in the six years of the Maoist insurgency. Kapil Shrestha, a

political scientist and human rights activist in Kathmandu says many

Nepalis are scared, because they believe their government cannot

protect them from the Maoists.

/// SHRESTHA ACT ///

People's biggest apprehension is the inability of the government to

provide security. This crisis of governance is one thing that scares

people the most. And then people are scared of the inhuman ways these

Maoist insurgents operate so people have to look for their own security

they have to fend for themselves.

/// END ACT ///

The violence and the strike came just as Nepal's Prime Minister Sher

Bahadur Deuba got parliamentary approval to extend a state of emergency

for at least another three months. Nepal's King Gyanendra approved the

state of emergency last November. It allowed Nepal's army to join the

fight against the Maoists for the first time in the six year insurgency.

Lok Raj Baral is a professor of Political Science at Nepal's Tribhuvan

University and a former Ambassador to India. He says it is crucial for

Nepal's government to show some progress in its fight with the Maoists

soon.

/// RAJ BARAL ACT ///

It is very interesting and surprising that the Maoists have been able to

show this much force and this second phase of the emergency is likely to

be very crucial, after all any operation cannot be successful in three

months. It takes some time. How the state force is going to meet such

challenges, that is going to be very crucial in the coming days.

/// END ACT ///

Analysts say violence will increase dramatically over the next few

months, as fighting intensifies between the Maoists and Nepal's army.

But many also say the Maoists can never be totally defeated militarily.

Sindhu Nath Pyakurel is the President of the Nepal Bar Association. He

has defended many Maoists in court and says it will take negotiations to

end the crisis.

/// PYAKUREL ACT ///

It is very difficult to defeat the Maoists on the battlefront. Equally

it is difficult to defeat the government also. Therefore in my opinion

negotiation is the only way out to resolve this problem.

/// END ACT ///

But with hundreds dead over the past few weeks, and fighting getting

worse on an almost daily basis, the talk on both sides is of escalation

not negotiation. Nearly three-thousand people have died since Nepal's

Maoist insurgency began six years ago. Many Nepalis believe that toll

will go much higher as their once-peaceful kingdom slides into a long

bloody conflict that could take years to resolve. (Signed)

NEB/JLT/RH