17 January 2002
Experts Discuss Prospects for Afghanistan Reconstruction
(Dobbins says he is optimistic, Rubin warns about 'aid lords') (580)
By Laura J. Brown
Washington File Staff Writer
Washington -- The U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan says he is
optimistic that Afghanistan has strong foundations for a successful
transition to peace and stability.
James Dobbins is a veteran U.S. diplomat who has decades of experience
working with broken societies in Haiti, Somalia, and the Balkans. He
spoke at a U.S. Institute of Peace briefing on Afghan reconstruction
in Washington January 15.
Dobbins characterized Afghanistan as one of the most devastated
societies he has seen but said there are many reasons to remain
hopeful that peace and stability will return to the war-torn country.
Afghanistan has strong foundations rarely present in places of grave
conflict, he said, including "a strong sense of national
consciousness, a history of independence and self-governance, and a
set of institutions."
In addition to these qualities, Dobbins said, the Afghans have shown a
remarkable willingness to work together across ethnic lines. While the
Afghan groups argue over power sharing, "they don't argue whether to
share power, they argue about how much of it each of them should
have," he said.
Dobbins said the reasons to remain hopeful about the prospects for
peace and reconstruction in Afghanistan are fourfold. First, the
United States is engaged and intends to continue engagement in
reconstruction efforts. Second, Afghanistan's neighbors have been
helpful from the Bonn conference onward in "pushing Afghans together,
rather than pulling them apart."
Third, the international community has offered more financial
assistance than has ever been available to Afghanistan before. And
fourth, Dobbins said, the population of Afghanistan is war-weary after
two decades of conflict and is ready to repair the country.
"One can be more optimistic than at any time in the last couple of
decades" about Afghanistan's prospects, Dobbins said.
Also speaking at the event was Barnett Rubin, who sounded a note of
warning to aid agencies and organizations that aim to help Afghans.
"Reconstruction resources can be used as political resources and even
military resources," said Rubin, who is director of studies and a
senior fellow at the Center for International Cooperation at New York
University. "We may be going through a transition from the problem of
warlords to the problem of aid lords."
International development agencies and donor countries will meet
January 20-21 in Tokyo to discuss how they can help Afghanistan
recover from the devastating effects of two decades of war. In a
recent assessment of the country's needs, the UN Development Program
(UNDP), the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank estimated that
the reconstruction of Afghanistan would cost about $15,000 million
over the next ten years.
Rubin, who has published several books on Afghanistan's history of
conflict and fragmentation, said that without adequate coordination
and oversight, donors might inadvertently empower local warlords and
render any central authority ineffective. The first task, he said,
should be to establish a coherent strategy and mechanism to coordinate
aid projects.
The Afghans "don't even have the basic office equipment, or
communications equipment, and they can't pay the salaries of people
working for them," he said. "They're not going to be able to deal with
15 or 20 different donor countries, 10 to 15 different UN agencies and
5,000 NGOs -- each of them wanting their separate project."
In addition to aid coordination, Rubin stressed the need for a
security assistance force during the transition from warlord control
to a stable government.
(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International
Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site:
http://usinfo.state.gov)
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