Military

DATE=12/21/2001

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-50762

TITLE=AFGHAN/POLITICS

BYLINE=LARRY JAMES

DATELINE=KABUL

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: An interim government takes office in Afghanistan Saturday, amid great expectations that the transfer of power will herald a new era of peace -- and considerable fear that it won't. No one believes the task will be easy, and there have been plenty of signs of trouble ahead, with many factions openly unhappy about the role they have been given in the process. Larry James looks at the prospects in this report from the Afghan capital, Kabul.

TEXT: The interim government will fill the void left when the Taleban were driven from power. This new body will serve six months until a council of elders, a Loya Jirga, will meet to create a governing body that will rule for two years until elections can be held.

The agreement to create this government was reached after eight days of tough negotiations in Germany among a collection of factional leaders who have a longer history of fighting each other than working together.

Almost immediately, there were signs of trouble. Ethnic Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum, whose forces control much of the northern part of the country, including Mazar-e-Shariff, said the Bonn agreement was a "humiliation," and threatened a boycott of the new government.

Northern Alliance leader Burhanudin Rabbani, who had been Afghanistan's president until the Taleban drove him from office, referred often to the agreement as an "affront" to the people of Afghanistan. Despite these pronouncements, there are encouraging signs, as both men have since softened their rhetoric and said they want to make the agreement succeed.

The most dramatic reversal came from Mr. Rabbani during a nationally televised address this week.

/// RABBANI ACT IN DARI THEN FADE ///

We must remember the bitter experiences of the past, he said, and put an end to conflict. There must be an end to factionalism and peace must replace chaos. We must make Bonn work.

U-S special envoy for Afghanistan, Ambassador James Dobbins, also stressed the need for this interim government to work.

/// DOBBINS (1) ACT ///

The international community needs a partner. It needs a broadly based government that represents all of the regions and all of the ethnicities, if it is to receive reconstruction assistance that we can only work if we have such a partner. On the 22nd, such a partner will be created, and as long as it continues to receive the support of the people and of all of the factions within Afghanistan, it will receive very substantial international assistance.

/// END ACT ///

Faizula Jalal, chairman of the Political Science Department at Kabul University, is a close associate of Burhanudin Rabbani. He too is optimistic, but warns maintaining stability in the capital may be just the first, and easiest step.

/// JALAL ACT IN DARI THEN FADE ///

There is no problem in the capital, he says, but there could be in Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat, Kandahar, Jalalabad and Badarshan. He says he hopes this interim government can solve these problems.

U-N special envoy to Afghanistan Lakhdar Brahimi says he hopes so, too, because it would be a shame for the people of Afghanistan to let this opportunity for peace slip away.

/// BRAHIMI ACT ///

They have a golden opportunity, perhaps never to come again, of availing themselves of this good will, and political will, to help them, and support a process that will bring peace, security to them. And will provide resources for reconstruction.

/// END ACT ///

As this new government takes control, no one can say with certainty if it will succeed.

Even now, there are heavy weapons belonging to various militias deployed in Kabul. According to the Bonn agreement, they are not supposed to be. Getting such weapons out of the city will be one of the first tasks facing the new government. A British-led international peacekeeping force, which has begun deploying in Afghanistan, may help. But success in disarming these fighters is far from certain.

What is clear is that, after so many years of fighting each other, it may not be easy to start trusting enough to work together. It is also clear that this chance may never come again. SIGNED)

NEB/LDJ/TW