Military

DATE=12-19-01

TYPE=Dateline

NUMBER=7-35706

TITLE=Africa Terrorism Update: Is Somalia Next?

BYLINE=Carol Castiel

TELEPHONE=619-1102

DATELINE=Washington

EDITOR=Neal Lavon

CONTENT=

INTRO: Media reports suggest that Iraq could be the next target if the U-S expands its global war on terrorism. But following a close second, experts say, is Somalia on the Horn of Africa. In this edition of Dateline, Carol Castiel explores why Washington may soon be turning its attention to that war-torn African nation.

CC: Earlier this month a U-S government delegation visited western Somalia to meet with local warlords and Ethiopian military officers. U.S. officials say the Bush administration views Somalia as a state which could be targeted in the U.S.-led war on terrorism. Former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia and coordinator for Somalia in the State Department, David Shin, explains why.

TAPE: CUT #1 SHIN, :46

"The reason why Somalia is often suggested is that there is no effective national government there. The country is in some sense a political void. It's very easy for groups that may harbor ill-will against us or other western countries to operate out of the country since there are no controls over the situation. There also is information and I think rather solid information that a group known as al Itihad, which translates into Islamic Unity, has been active in Somalia since 1991 and has recently gone on the American list of terrorist organizations as of this fall. There also are allegations and perhaps even some evidence that Al Itihad has links with al Qaeda."

CC: Ambassador Shin cites senior American officials who have made this claim, but urges caution due to Somalia's reputation as a place that generates rumors.

TAPE: CUT #2 SHIN, :30

"Deputy Defense Secretary Wolfowitz and assistant secretary of state for African affairs, Walter Kansteiner have been quoted as saying pretty much categorically that there are links between al Queda and al-Itihad. I think the British have come up with similar information. I would only note that there is also a lot of disinformation floating around Somalia. It has been a country where disinformation has been a parlor game for many years, and I hope that whatever information does exist on these linkages is looked at pretty carefully and we try to ferret out the good from the bad."

CC: Clan-dominated Somalia is 99% Muslim and has had no central government since opposition leaders ousted U.S. backed dictator Mohammed Siad Barre in 1991. Since then, rival clan leaders and their militia armies have carved up the country into a mosaic of fiefdoms. The extremist Islamic group al-Itihad took advantage of the power void to expand its political influence in Somalia. One of al-Itihad's primary goals is to impose Islamic rule on the country. Ken Menkhaus is a specialist on Somalia and its Islamic movements. He says the rise of al-Itihad was fueled by corruption in Somalia.

TAPE: CUT #3, MENKHAUS :43

"Like most radical Islamic groups in Muslim countries, alitihad began in the 1980's primarily with young professional males most of whom had gone abroad to work either in the gulf or gone to school in Egypt. Mostly and this is very typical of the rise of these movements in other countries, fueled by frustration with the very repressive Barre government, with violations of human rights appalled at the level of corruption in the country, frustrated with the divisiveness of clanism, all of those factors and more began to build a small network mainly of study groups, mainly of young men, mainly in Mogadishu in the 1980's."

CC: Then, with the collapse of the state in 1991, al-Itihad made considerable inroads throughout the country, particularly in the towns of Luk and Roscomboni in southern Somalia. But, according to Steve Morrison, director of the Africa program at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies, al-Itihad today is not as visible as it used to be due to a thrashing at the hands of the Ethiopians in their 1996 war. Nevertheless, Mr. Morrison says the historical cooperation and ideolgical similarities between al-Itihad and al-Qaida warrant the heightened scrutiny exercised by the United States.

TAPE: CUT #4 MORRISON, 1:27

"MORRISON: So there are links with al-Qaeda, one has to be careful in not exaggerating those. I think there's enough of a history there to be very vigilant and concerned that that ideological affinity and history of cooperation not become the basis for welcoming in elements from al-Qaeda fleeing from Afghanistan and that's the single most important issue that concerns American policy makers right now.

CAROL: Do we have evidence of al-Qaeda elements fleeing Afghanistan and taking refuge in Somalia?

MORRISON: I don't believe we have any evidence yet. What we have is a heightened watch over this. We have a number of different forces interdicting ships and small vessels along the coastwe've got German, British, French, Dutch, American naval forces intercepting vessels out on the water to see what kind of trafficking is going on. There is very close monitoring of any air traffic. You've had visits into Mogadishu and into the north and those visits will continue. And the message that is being brought across in those visits is, don't let any fleeing elements from al Qaeda take refuge or pass through or catch their breath in your territory, and if you get notice that something like this is going to happenyou better get in touch with us fast. CAROL: How have they responded to that message?

MORRISON: The response has been up to now I think to profess agreement and commitment to abide by those basic sort of ground rules."

CC: Although a transitional national government or TNG was installed last year in Somalia, observers say the regime can barely control the capital Mogadishu, let alone the countryside. Nonetheless, the State Department says U.S. officials engage in regular dialogue with the TNG as part of its anti-terrorism effort. Steve Morrison says such dialogue with Somalia and her neighbors is key to averting military action.

TAPE: CUT #5 MORRISON, :20

"The preference is to simply lay down some warnings very clearly-open a dialogue with all the major actors in Somalia as well as in the neighboring states and ake clear what we're looking for. Become as familiar as possible with the lay of the land inside Somalia and hope that you don't have to act."

CC: Ambassador Shin concurs that military action against Somalia should be a last resort.

TAPE: CUT #6, SHIN :55

"Any actions that we take must be predicated on indisputable information on the one hand and second the actions have to be very carefully thought through. For example, if the UN report is accurate that the al-Itihad people effectively pulled up stakes from Roscomboni in the southern most part of Somalia and there's really nothing left there anymore, well that doesn't make it a very interesting target. My guess is that most of the al-Itihad people have melted into the Somali public and most of them are Somalis and have traditionally been Somalis and it would be awfully hard for us or for anyone else to distinguish who is al-Itihad and who is just an average Somali. So I think one has to exercise enormous caution before jumping into the situation there so that we know that we actually have real targets to deal with and that we have a strong case to link al-Itihad and al-Qaeda."

CC: Thus far, it appears that the administration is trying to deter military operations in Somalia by implementing the very preventative measures to which both Ambassador Shin and Steve Morrison alluded. In addition to declaring al-Itihad a terrorist organization, the Bush administration recently froze the assets of Somalia's al-Barakaat financial system because of alleged links to al Qaeda. [opt] Money sent from relatives abroad is the country's largest source of income. While al-Barakaat's closure has hurt Somalia's economy, expert Ken Menkhaus says those who predicted dire consequences have overreacted. [end opt] eantime, while media attention is focused on Somalia, Steve Morrison cautions that Kenya is equally vulnerable as a haven for terrorists.

TAPE: CUT 8, MORRISON, :40

"Kenya is very important to the equation. Kenyans have a very large coastal muslim population of which a sizeable portion are ethnic Somalis. They also have a very large population of displaced Somalis just outside of Nairobi in Eastly, there is a large community of fairly radicalized Somalis. And Kenya is a place where al-Qaeda elements have been able to operate pretty effectively. Putting all of our attention on Somalia because of its past, because it's a failed state shouldn't leave us unaware or insensitive to what is happening in Kenya or what might happen in Kenya."

CC: Analysts caution against overstating or understating the threat posed by Somalia. They also stress the importance of "getting it right" in Somalia. This is particularly important after the 1993 debacle in which 18 U.S. soldiers were killed when what began as a humanitarian operation, degenerated into a failed political intervention. It appears for now that the Bush administration is doing everything in its power to avert military action, while at the same time being ready should such action be warranted. For Dateline, I'm Carol Castiel.