Military

DATE=12/10/01

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=NEW AFGHAN GOVERNMENT (1)

NUMBER=5-50658

BYLINE=ED WARNER

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: In the middle of war, after much debate, agreement was reached at Bonn for establishing a new government in Afghanistan. Will the country's many quarrelsome factions accept it? Answers vary widely, but it represents hope for peace in a war-torn country. V-O-A's Ed Warner reports reaction to the Bonn agreement.

TEXT: There are two possible scenarios for the new Afghan government, says Larry Goodson, professor of international studies at Bentley College and author of "Afghanistan's Endless War."

One is optimistic.

/// GOODSON ACT ///

The Afghans realize this is their last chance. They also realize that there is a substantial amount of money out there that is being dangled in front of them for reconstruction and so on. And there are the efforts of (interior minister Yunus) Qanooni and (foreign minister) Abdullah Abdullah and people like that, the younger generation of less combat-oriented leaders, to make it work.

/// END ACT ///

Then there is the pessimistic version.

/// GOODSON ACT ///

There are too many factions that feel cheated by the process or at least are complaining about the process. That is leaving aside all those people who signed on, but did so with mental reservations. The time honored Afghan approach to papering over differences is to agree in principle, but to walk away from the table to with a lot of mental reservations.

/// END ACT ///

One who has walked away is Anwar Ahady, professor of political science at Providence College. He turned down a cabinet post among the 30 available for the interim government that will get to work in Kabul on December 22.

He supported the agreement in general, but not the cabinet appointments. As a Pashtun, he felt the Tajiks and other members of the Northern Alliance were awarded too many seats.

He says negotiations were too rushed.

/// AHADY ACT ///

We were presented with the results and basically did not have much time to analyze or absorb all that material for purposes of decision making. We were called at 15-to-five in the morning to come and listen to the results, and by eight we had to decide very quickly. At that time, I had serious problems about the composition of the government, and I thought the more responsible thing would not to be part of it.

/// END ACT ///

But this is only a beginning, counters Ashraf Ghani, professor of anthropology at Johns Hopkins University and an adviser to the United Nations on Afghanistan. A process is under way that leads to a loya jirga, a grand assembly that will include all shades of Afghan opinion.

/// GHANI ACT ///

The important issue is that all factions are brought within a political framework. Ethnic distribution is more of a secondary issue than a primary issue at this moment, the reason being that this is the first step in a process that will be broadened to ensure as fair a representation as possible and that is the holding of a grand assembly within six-months.

/// END ACT ///

Some commanders or warlords say they will not cooperate. One of the most forceful, Rashid Dostum, warns the interim government not to come into the area he controls in the north.

That is a matter of bargaining, says Mr. Ghani. Each commander wants to get the best possible deal before he agrees to join the government. This is the way coalition politics is practiced. So do not be unduly alarmed.

A former U-S diplomat who served in Afghanistan, Thomas Greene, is impressed with the agreement reached at Bonn.

/// GREENE ACT ///

They are going to base constitutional arrangements on the constitution of 1964, which is very good news because that constitution was adopted with virtual national unanimity in a period of tranquillity in Afghanistan. The king was on the throne, and basically, the royal family ceded power to a parliamentary democracy.

/// END ACT ///

Conditions are obviously not the same today, says Mr. Greene, and the constitution is not acceptable in its entirety. But it points the way to perhaps another much needed period of tranquillity. (SIGNED)

NEB/EW/RAE