Military

DATE=December 4, 2001

TYPE=Dateline

NUMBER=7-35643

TITLE=Maelstrom in the Middle East

BYLINE=Neal Lavon/Rebecca Ward

TELEPHONE=619-0112

DATELINE=Washington

EDITOR=Neal Lavon

CONTENT=

INTRO: Diplomats and analysts are continuing to assess the impact on the peace process of this week's violence in the Middle East. Three Palestinian suicide bombers left more than two dozen dead in Israeli and the Israeli response from its warplanes, gunships, and tanks resulted in more than 100 Palestinian casualties in the West Bank and Gaza. What momentum there was for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and whether the U.S. role will change is the subject of this edition of Dateline. Here's Rebecca Ward.

SOUND MONTAGE, :31

(EXPLOSION) (SURVIVOR) "There was a big blast and it thrust us forwards, then we started running." (SOUND OF ISRAELI MISSILES) (SHARON) "We will take the necessary measures as long as the terror exists." (SOUND OF SIRENS) (HAMAS SPOKESMAN) "We are in confrontation with the terror of Jews who occupied our land and we are defending ourselves, our people."

RW: Abdel Aziz Al Rantisi, spokesman for the radical Islamic group Hamas reacting to both the comments and actions taken by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. The Israeli prime minister was in Washington for talks with President Bush when he flew back following the suicide bombings. For all sides in the Middle East, the stakes are high. For Israel, negotiations with the Palestinians in general, and Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat in particular, seem more remote than ever. Prime Minister Sharon had been insistent that at least one week go by with no Palestinian violence against Israelis before any talks could resume. Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman David Schek says Israel holds Yasser Arafat directly responsible.

TAPE: CUT 1, SCHEK, :15

"What led us into this situation is the consistent deterioration of the situation which is the result of the Palestinian Authority not doing anything in order to stop violence."

RW: The Israeli foreign ministry spokesman says Israel believes it is not now the victim of a suicidal attack but a combatant in a brutal war against terrorism itself.

TAPE: CUT 2, SCHEK, :11

"The definition of a war, I think, if you look around at what is happening and if you listen to the mood of the people, I think that is a correct definition. We feel that we are in a war against terrorism.absolutely."

RW: The Palestinians, for their part, blame the Israelis for both violence against them and what they believe is an unwillingness to reach a meaningful settlement. Adviser to Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, Marwan Kanafani, says it is time for a new Israeli approach.

TAPE: CUT 3, KANAFANI, :07

"The whole situation needs another approach. This approach is going to ignite the situation, it's not going to help the situation."

RW: That's also the view of Michael Hudson, Professor of International Relations at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service. He says the recent violence and the hard-line policies of Ariel Sharon are hampering American diplomatic efforts led in Washington by Secretary of State Colin Powell, and on the ground by Ambassador William Burns and General Anthony Zinni. Israelis who seek peace, he suggests, may seek a different policy towards the Palestinians.

TAPE: CUT 4, HUDSON, :55

"Well, it's really difficult to see what could be done. Mr. Burns and General Zinni were out there in the last few days and I think everybody hoped that in the wake of Secretary Powell's speech in Louisville that the United States was ready to move forward with a newly energized and more balanced approach to reviving the negotiations. But in those few days, we've seen considerable bloodshed, more Israeli killings of Palestinians, and of course, these latest very bloody events. One would wonder whether eventually, not right now certainly, but eventually, many Israelis will begin to wonder whether the very tough line the Sharon government has been following all these months is really producing results."

RW: Robert Satloff, Executive Director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says the events of this past weekend put any Middle East cease-fire in jeopardy. But he says the attacks show a need for strong leadership by Yasser Arafat.

TAPE: CUT 5, SATLOFF, :25

"It underscores the principal problem in the way of a cease-fire. That's the need for the PLO leader, Yasser Arafat, to exert full and total control over the forces operating from his territory. And until there is clear steps taken by him, there can be no step forward."

RW: Despite the outbreak of violence, U-S envoy General Anthony Zinni has said he will stay in the region as long as it takes to end the 14 months of bloodshed.

TAPE: CUT 6, ANTHONY ZINNI :11

"It's important that we stay together to fight this, that we don't let it deter it from our goal for peace and that we stand together to let the world see that we will not tolerate this."

RW: General Zinni arrived in the region more than a week ago along with Ambassador Burns to try to help both sides reach a cease-fire. The ultimate goal of the United States' involvement is to get both sides to return to the negotiating table. The action and counter-action of both sides, according to U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, is keeping the Israelis and Palestinians from negotiations. At some point, he says the two sides will have to get back to a process that will lead to a cease-fire. Secretary Powell spoke on the sidelines of the European Security summit in Bucharest urging both the Palestinians and the Israelis to look beyond the latest upsurge of violence. However, in the wake of the latest suicide bombings, Secretary Powell also acknowledged Israel's right to respond to what he called acts of terror.

TAPE: CUT 7, POWELL, :18

"Israel at this moment is recovering from a terrible blow inflicted on her last Saturday night by acts of terror and Prime Minister Sharon as the freely-elected prime minister of a democratic nation is responding in a way that he believes is appropriate."

RW: Observers say the United States is now pressuring Mr. Arafat to deal more forcefully with Palestinian terror groups like Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. State Department spokesman Phil Reeker says it is up to Chairman Arafat to halt the violence.

TAPE: CUT 8, REEKER, :10

"Chairman Arafat is responsible for taking steps to stop the violence and there has to be sustained action by the Palestinian authority against those individuals responsible."

RW: Here in the United States, President Bush has taken steps to cut off financial aid to groups suspected of funneling funds to Islamic militants. He announced Monday that the U-S government was freezing the assets of an American Islamic foundation based in Dallas, Texas and two overseas groups based in Palestinian-controlled territory in the West Bank. All three groups have denied any connection with terrorism. The September 11th terror attacks on the United States pushed U-S stakes in the Middle East perhaps higher than they had ever been before. Washington is relying on continued cooperation of Muslim and Arab states in its declared war against worldwide terrorism and peace between Israel and the Palestinians could make that easier to sustain. However, Mideast analyst Robert Satloff says there is a limit to how much more involved the Bush administration wants to become in the Middle East.

TAPE: CUT 9, SATLOFF, :55

"Arafat has sought an American deeper engagement in the peace process. As a result, we sent out General Zinni last week to begin this effort. This is probably the last effort the Bush Administration will put into this. If there are no positive results, the Bush Administration has no desire to get engaged in Arab-Israeli peacemaking. It came around to the idea of an envoy and it sent the general out now. If the general doesn't get positive results, that will be it. And we will effectively suspend our relationship with Yasser Arafat on any political basis if he cannot deliver this time."

RW: While Israel points to Yasser Arafat as the reason for the continuing violence, Middle East experts say Israelis may find no peace without him. If not Yasser Arafat, they ask, who then would lead the Palestinians? The alternative may be worse. That is why, perhaps, Israeli retaliation struck near not at Yasser Arafat's headquarters. But it is possible that after this weekend's violence, patience with Mr. Arafat in both Israel and the United States, may be wearing thin.

For Dateline, I'm Rebecca Ward.