Military

DATE=October 26, 2001

TYPE=Dateline

NUMBER=7-35490

TITLE=CHINA AND TERRORISM

BYLINE=ANNA ZALEWSKI

TELEPHONE=619-1287

DATELINE=Washington

EDITOR=Neal Lavon

CONTENT=

INTRO:The terror attacks against the United States on September 11th were a defining moment in the post-Cold War world. Analysts say it was also a test of U.S. relations with other major powers. So it was not surprising that the agenda of the APEC Summit held recently in Shanghai was dominated by antiterrorism. While Russia has decided to side openly with the United States, Neal Lavon says in this Dateline report that China seems to be taking a more careful approach to the new diplomacy of terrorism.

NL: Even before the attacks, President Bush's scheduled meeting with Chinese leader Jiang Zemin (pron. Jah-ng zuh-meen) was considered one of the most critical of his first year in office. Analysts say this was especially true after the collision of an American surveillance plane and a Chinese fighter plane earlier this year that forced the two leaders into a confrontation before they had even met. The APEC gathering in Shanghai offered the two men an opportunity to meet personally and explore their nations' positions on major issues. Although Chinese officials hinted they were disappointed that the fight against terrorism dominated the APEC proceedings, it nevertheless supported the coalition. Mark Fung is a Research Fellow of Chinese Studies at the Nixon Center.

TAPE: CUT#1, FUNG, :33

"If you look at the wording of the language of both President Jiang Zemin and President Bush, both sides were very eager to portray an image of solidarity. And especially on the Chinese side, they want to make sure that they won't be seen on the international stage as obstructionists and that was very important. And certainly Bush emphasized and bolstered Jiang's standing by thanking him for his contributions to the antiterrorism campaign waged in Afghanistan."

NL: But Dr. June Teufel Dreyer, a specialist on Chinese security at the University of Miami, says that the image of sudden unanimity among the major players on the world arenaparticularly on China's part--is only superficial.

TAPE: CUT#2, DREYER, :55

"Certainly it looks very much like sweetness and cooperation in the sense that China and Russia and the United States have found a common cause in dealing with Muslim fundamentalist terrorism. But to me the appearance is very much on a surface because I don't think that underneath, very much has changed. China apparently is still proliferating weapons. China has not changed its stands: it's very much opposed to amending the ABM treaty, it's against NMD and Theater Missile Defense. It hasn't changed its stand on Taiwan. So I think that what looks like a fundamental realignment may change back to the old alignment in a fairly short period of time."

NL: Dr. Usha Haley, Associate Professor of International Business at the University of Tennessee at Knoxville's College of Business agrees.

TAPE: CUT#3, HALEY, :17

"China remains a strategic competitor for the U.S. and has major regional ambitions and although alliances with competitors do occur, they are for the most part quite weary. And for the most part this war remains an unwanted intrusion for China."

NL: 'An unwanted intrusion', analysts say, because for Beijing, the American diplomatic and military offensive triggered by the September 11th attacks poses a dilemma. Keen to contain unrest in its own mainly Islamic province of Xinjiang (pron. sheen jah-ng) and long wary of the Taleban regime, China wants to limit the spread of Islamic extremism. But it also wants to keep American power in check as well as the Uighurs (WEE-gers), an ethnic group of eight million who overwhelmingly practice a moderate form of Islam. According to Dr. Dreyer, controlling this group might be a reason why China has joined the antiterrorist coalition.

TAPE: CUT#4, DREYER, :45

"Oh, I think that this is a major motivation. And they must be saying to themselves quietly: 'See we've told the American for years how unreasonable these Uighurs are,' and finally they're seeing for themselves. But I don't think that actually most Americans see that, because they see Turk Muslims as being oppressed in their own land whereas Osama Bin Laden is really not oppressed in his own land. So I think they see the problems as two very independent ones. So there are not very sympathetic to the Chinese government about the Uighurs."

NL: And although the main objective for President Bush in Shanghai was to win a clear endorsement from President Jiang on the war against terrorism, the United States was likely to be asked for something in return by China. But Dr. Dreyer said the Chinese did not get it.

TAPE: CUT#5, DREYER, :27

"Well, I think one of the things they want from us is to stop arms sales to Taiwan and cease American 'meddling' with regard to the Tibet question. And with regard to Taiwan I know that Secretary Powell told the Chinese in very strong terms that there was no change whatsoever in America's policy toward Taiwan."

NL: Another touchy spot in Sino-American relations is Beijing's human rights policy and lack of religious freedoms. And although President Bush did not raise the human rights issue at the APEC summit, Mark Fung of the Nixon Center says the president was quite outspoken about his own beliefs.

TAPE: CUT#6, FUNG, :37

"President Bush made a very clear statement. He said you know, 'I'm a Christian and I hope that sometime in the future a discussion about religion in China can be discussed openly.' And it was very big for him to say because here he is trying to organize a coalition to battle terrorism and now he's talking about religion in China which a sore spot there. So I think for now, human rights and religious freedom may not be on top of the agenda, but certainly President Bush made it clear that this will not go away."

NL: Another issue that will not go away in Sino-American relations is the question of missile defense with which the United States wants to shield itself from potential attacks from rogue states. So far, China has steadfastly opposed the idea. China is believed to have roughly 20 nuclear-equipped missiles capable of reaching the United States, a small arsenal by U.S. standards. Beginning this summer, the administration decided to signal Beijing that it understood China's nuclear modernization program was inevitable. But Dr. Usha Haley points out there is a caveat.

TAPE: CUT#7, HALEY, :11

"Since September 11th, the U.S. administration publicly declared that there would be no trade-off between Chinese acquiescence for the antimissile program and American agreement to China's slow nuclear buildup."

NL: And then, there is the question of Chinese policy towards Asia. In general, as China emerged from a half-century of internal struggles and poverty to extend its influence across Asia, its neighbors and the United States see a looming struggle for power. And many Asian countries, including Islamic ones, realize that by siding with the United States, they may attain some leverage against Beijing. While bilateral relations between China and the United States had already begun to stabilize before September 11th, some experts believe the global coalition against terrorism may give both countries a framework for increased cooperation. Mark Fung believes the current situation tilts towards stabilization.

TAPE: CUT#8, FUNG, :31

"Oh, I think it's sort of stabilizing. If you look at any U.S. administration when they first start, their relations with China and getting to know the leaders on both sides . is very uneven and unstable. I mean President Clinton took over three years to establish a very coherent policy, Reagan probably half that time, so when you look at this at least it's stabilizing, it's not going to dip extremely low, it's not going to climb extremely high, it's going just to modulate in that middle zone."

NL: However, Dr. Dreyer sees the U.S.-China relationship somewhat differently.

TAPE: CUT#9, DREYER, :25

"I would describe them as warmer on a surface, but with underlying problems that have been submerged in a common antiterrorist movement, but which are not going to go away, and which are highly likely to come back again as soon as concerns with dealing with Osama bin Laden has been either abated or settled."

NL: With Washington focusing on fighting international terrorism, Beijing may have to settle for temporarily sitting on the sidelines. But the relationship between the two giants is unlikely to stay on the sidelines for a great deal of time.

This edition of Dateline was written by Anna Zalewski. I'm Neal Lavon in Washington.