Military

DATE=10/06/2001

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-50270

TITLE=AFGHAN / PAK / POLITICS

BYLINE=AYAZ GUL

DATELINE=ISLAMABAD

CONTENT=

VOICE AT:

INTRO: As the United States continues to press Afghanistan's Taleban government to turn over suspected terrorist Osama bin Laden, officials have also been examining what might come next if the Taleban loses power. The focus of the effort shifted in recent days to Rome, where King Zahir Shah lives in exile. The former King and other anti-Taleban groups have agreed to convene a grand

assembly of Afghan elders to decide the political future of the war-shattered country . As Ayaz Gul reports from Islamabad, the Taleban government is coming under increasing pressure.

TEXT: Anti-Taleban groups meeting in Rome on Monday announced plans to try

to overthrow the Taleban rulers by rallying Afghans behind the 86-year old

ex-king, Zahir Shah.

Under the terms of the agreement, the two sides plan to convene a Loya

Jirga or Grand assembly of Afghan elders to decide the political future of

war-shattered Afghanistan. Hamid Karzai is an aid to the former Afghan

king. He says the Loya Jirga is the only option for bringing peace and

stability to Afghanistan once the Taleban is removed from power.

///KARZAI ACT///

We want the world to empower Afghanistan again, which is very clearly

defined in Afghan traditions by way of the Loya Jirga. That institution can

take Afghanistan from this present state of incapacitation to a state of

empowerment, where the Afghan people will regain their sovereignty and the

right to exercise their power. And that is the situation that can also

bring an end to the presence of terrorism in Afghanistan and that is the

stage where Afghans and also the rest of the world and specially our

neighbors will live in peace.

///END ACT///

Mr. Karzai says that the Taleban has failed to bring peace or reconstruct

the country since gaining control of most of the territory five years ago. He

says that by giving protection to suspected terrorist Osama bin Laden, the Taleban has even undermined the "sovereignty" of the Afghan nation.

///OPT KARZAI ACT///

It was during the Taleban rule that we lost our historical monuments, it

was during their rule that Afghans began to suffer in an extremely

humiliating manner and that Afghanistan was delivered to foreigners and

completely taken out of the hands of Afghans. At this point now, we very

much want the scene to change in Afghanistan. We want Afghanistan to be

given back, returned to the hands of the Afghan people.

///END OPT ACT///

The Taleban are mainly Pashtoon, the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan.

The group controls most of the country, but it has failed to dislodge an

opposition Northern Alliance of ethnic Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras, which

controls less then 10 percent of the Afghan territory.

The Taleban is known for practicing its own strict version of Islamic law.

/// OPT /// Women are banned from working and most girls from receiving an education. Men are forced to grow beards while music and other light entertainment are declared illegal practices in the Taleban-ruled areas. Early this year, the Islamic movement ordered the destruction of pre-Islamic statues, mainly

Buddhist statues, across Afghanistan, condemning them offensive to Islam. /// END OPT ///

Taleban ambassador to neighboring Pakistan, Abdul Salam Zaeef, defends Taleban polices, saying they have helped established peace in war-torn

Afghanistan. Mr. Zaeef, speaking through a translator, said he believes that any effort to dislodge the Taleban and bring a new government in Kabul will be doomed to fail.

///ZAEEF ACT IN PASHTO -- ESTABLISHES -- THEN -- FADES UNDER TO ENGLISH INTERPRETER'S VOICE ///

All the problems that we have in Afghanistan are the result of Zahir Shah's

misguided policies when he was the king in Afghanistan. He gave rise to the

communist parties in Afghanistan and had brought in Western and Kafir

(infidel's) culture to our country. And therefore, our people will not

support him. If he (the king) is brought in by force, will give him the

same lesson that we gave to other communists in the past.

/// END ACT ///

Neighboring Pakistan is the only country that still recognizes the Taleban government. But analysts like Talat Hussein believe Islamabad is on the verge of cutting its ties with the Taleban, a move that will bring additional pressure and could tip the balance in the long-running battle with the opposition Northern Alliance.

///HUSSEIN ACT///

When they (the Taleban) held up against the Northern Alliance they were

able to do it because Pakistan was backing them forcefully. With that tap

of support being turned off, with the entire international community

ganging up against them and with the Northern Alliance being supported and

armed to teeth by the international community, it's fair to assume that

they may not be able to survive as a structure inside Afghanistan.

///END ACT///

The harsh policies of the Taleban and its refusal to surrender suspected terrorist Osama bin Laden, have also increased pressure on Pakistan to support international efforts to establish a new government in Kabul. However, analysts say Islamabad will push for a major role for Pashtoon representatives in any future political set up in Kabul. World leaders, such as British Prime Minister Tony Blair say any future government will have to be broad based.

///BLAIR ACT///

It is absolutely clear that if the current Taleban regime does fall, then

it is important that any successor regime is broad based, involves all

ethnic groupings, obviously has to include, Pashtoon, which is very

important indeed. And has to take account of the fact that Pakistan has a

valid interest in close involvement with arrangements of any such successor

regime.

///END ACT///

Despite its previous support for the Taleban, Pakistan has has now

promised to provide full support for U-S anti-terrorist policies and the hunt for terror suspect Osama bin Laden. Earlier this week, Pakistan became the only Islamic country that has publicly said that evidence collected by U-S officials does link the terror suspect to last month's deadly attacks on New York and Washington. (SIGNED)

NEB/AG/KBK