Military

DATE=11/14/00

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT CQ

NUMBER=5-47378

TITLE=BOSNIA / ELECTIONS

BYLINE=LARRY JAMES

DATELINE=SARAJEVO

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

/// EDS: CORRECTS name of Croatian president to Stipe Mesic in 5th graf of text of item No. 5-47377; UPDATE INTRO WITH ELECTION RESULTS AS NEEDED ///

INTRO: The effects of political upheaval that brought Vojislav Kostunica to power in Yugoslavia have raised hopes for a ripple effect throughout the region. International officials were hoping that Saturday's elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina would show waning support for nationalist parties. While the final results of that vote are still not in, preliminary tallies indicate that the multi-ethnic Social Democrats are slightly ahead in the Muslim-Croat half of Bosnia. Though the latest results show a nationalist party ahead in the Serb half of the country, the international community says it expects to see a move away from the divisive politics of the past and toward a more multi-ethnic democratic society. Larry James has been traveling throughout Bosnia and reports on possible changes.

TEXT: Political change may be coming to Bosnia. But unlike the dramatic events that unfolded in Yugoslavia, which saw Slobodan Milosevic lose his grip on power, the changes here are coming more gradually.

Bosnians went to the polls last Saturday. It was the sixth election and the third general election held since the Dayton peace agreement was signed in November of 1995. In previous elections, the nationalist Muslim, Croat and Serbian parties had the best showings. But this time, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (O-S-C-E), which conducted the balloting, expects more moderate parties to do well, even winning the majority in some areas. Robert Barry heads the OSCE mission to Bosnia. He says at least part of the reason for his optimism is because of the changes in Belgrade.

///ACT BARRY IN ENGLISH///

First of all, you no longer have Milosevic to be actively trying to destabilize the situation here, particularly in Republika Srpska (the Serb Republic). It's very hard to have the region develop with a black hole in the middle, and now that the black hole is gone, or is shrinking at least, I think that the stability pact can have more effect and economic turnaround should take place.

///END ACT///

Zelko Kapanje is the editor of the daily newspaper Nezavisne Novine in Banja Luka, in the Serb part of Bosnia. He agrees that the Milosevic departure will mean change, but he doubts the impact will be immediate and is not likely to affect the election results.

///ACT KAPANJE IN SERBIAN, ESTABLISH AND FADE///

He says the changes in Serbia - starting in late September - came too late to influence the way of thinking and the electoral profile of the voters, especially in the Republika Srpska, or Serb Republic. But in the long run he expects a weakening of nationalist forces, which is a little surprising, he says, since the new Yugoslav president, Vojislav Kostunica, is very much a nationalist himself. But Mr. Kapanje adds that perhaps President Kostunica is also a pragmatist who realizes the solutions to Yugoslavia's problems do not lie in Bosnia.

The developments in Belgrade are one part of a regional picture that has been shifting significantly over the past year. The death of Croatian President Franjo Tudjman resulted in a void that has been filled by Stipe Mesic, a far more moderate voice. He has made it clear to the Croats of Bosnia that they must look within their own country - and not to Zagreb - for solutions to their problems.

Wolfgang Petritch, the High Representative to Bosnia, who administers the country under the terms of the Dayton agreement, also stresses the importance of the changes in Croatia as well as Yugoslavia.

///ACT PETRITCH ///

The new democratic government, at least from the Croat side, are fully in support, and I have clear indications that new Yugoslav government will do the same. They will support a sovereign Bosnia-Herzegovina, and this is for the wider region of the greatest importance. We will finally have an opportunity, a real opportunity, to pacify the whole region.

///END ACT///

Thomas Miller came to Sarajevo as U-S Ambassador a year-and-a-half-ago never expecting to see what he calls the remarkable changes that have taken place in Serbia and Croatia. But he certainly welcomes them.

///ACT MILLER ///

The message that's come through is that change is possible, number one. And number two, that people do run things, can run things if they choose to. And that's through the ballot box. And what we saw in both the cases of Croatia and Yugoslavia and Serbia was the ballot box did win out after all, and that people do have power, if they're willing to exercise it - and in both cases, in a non-violent way.

/// OPT /// Final results of the voting in Bosnia are not expected for some time. /// END OPT /// Most observers in Bosnia are convinced that whoever wins the vote must focus on economic issues - the country's number one problem - if they expect to stay in power. In a country where one-third of the work force is unemployed and two-thirds of the population is classified as living below the poverty line, it is the creation of new jobs and not an appeal to ethnic rivalries that matters most. (Signed)

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