Military

DATE=11/09/00

TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT

TITLE=U-S ELECTION / ARAB REACT (L-ONLY)

NUMBER=2-269042

BYLINE=SCOTT BOBB

DATELINE=CAIRO

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: In the Middle East, people have been surprised and mystified by developments in the U-S presidential election. Governments are reacting cautiously, predicting U-S policy toward the region will not change a great deal, and indicating they do not foresee a change in their relations with the U-S government. V-O-A Middle East Correspondent Scott Bobb in Cairo reports that on some issues, however, opinions are strong.

TEXT: The Arab world has been closely watching the U-S presidential race as the campaign peaked amid rising tensions over clashes between Palestinians and Israelis. Arab governments - ranging from allies like Egypt to adversaries like Iraq - say they do not expect their relations with the next administration to be very different.

Many in the Arab world, however, believe the U-S government favors Israel over Arab nations. A resolution passed overwhelmingly by the U-S House of Representatives, which held the Palestinians solely responsible for the recent clashes, has reinforced this view.

A Syrian political analyst in Damascus, Hisham Dajani, says nevertheless, Arab public opinion tends to back Republican candidate George W. Bush over the Democratic candidate Al Gore.

/// DAJANI ACT 1 ///

They believe that the American Republican administration is less aligned to the Jews.

/// END ACT ///

The Arab news media report frequently on the power of the pro-Israeli lobby and its links to Democratic candidates. Professor Dajani says lack of progress in the peace process during the Clinton presidency is also a factor.

/// DAJANI ACT 2 ///

The Arabs are disappointed because Clinton, after eight years, has failed to achieve peace in the Middle East. Maybe they look to the Republicans to do something better.

/// END ACT ///

Professor Dajani believes a Republican administration would exert more pressure on the Israeli government in the peace negotiations.

A political science professor at the American University of Cairo, Saad Eddin Ibrahim, says whoever he is, the next U-S president early in his term must revive the Middle East peace process. And he says the Arab world is looking for a change in approach toward the negotiations.

/// IBRAHIM ACT 1 ///

I think what probably would matter is a perception that the new president is fair. They know that the United States will never be completely even-handed on the Arab-Israeli conflict. But at least they expect a modicum of fairness.

/// END ACT ///

/// OPT /// On policy toward the Gulf, Arab analysts say the U-S government increasingly stands alone. Professor Ibrahim says the next U-S president must consider changing U-S policy, in particular toward Iraq.

/// OPT // IBRAHIM ACT 2 ///

I don't know if he will, but he should, because now an increasing number of Arab countries and other countries outside the Arab world are beginning to lift the ban on dealing with Iraq. And if the United States does not join or at least relax its attitude toward Iraq, it will probably find itself isolated.

/// END ACT ///

/// OPT /// Professor Ibrahim says even European allies are recognizing that U-S policy toward Iraq since the Gulf war has not produced any real results. /// END OPT ///

Arab analysts note the close ties between Arab petroleum producers and many Republican leaders and their supporters in the U-S business community. They hope the desire to increase trade and commerce will lead the next administration to adopt a less dogmatic approach toward traditional adversaries in the region like Iraq, Iran, and Libya. (Signed)

NEB/SB/GE/JWH