Military

DATE=11/07/00

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=Middle East Fallout

NUMBER=5-47341

BYLINE=Ed Warner

DATELINE=Washington

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: Satellite television is flashing grim pictures of the Israeli-Palestinian clash around the world with unsettling effects in many Muslim countries. Political adjustments are under way in response. Nations that have been at odds find common cause in blaming Israel and America for the violence, and anti-Americanism is one the rise, say observers. VOA's Ed Warner reports the views of two analysts with long experience in the Muslim world.

TEXT: Rashid Khalidi says he has not seen such anger in Arab countries in the last twenty years.

Director of the Center for International Studies at the University of Chicago, Mr. Khalidi has recently returned from an overseas trip where he witnessed an outpouring of sympathy for the Palestinians that he believes is not reflected in the U-S media.

// Khalidi act //

There is a lot not reported about the campuses in Egypt, in the streets in Morocco, in cafes in Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. It is below the radar screen because there is not large-scale unrest, but there is incredible dissatisfaction. So I think we will see very unexpected things happening, some of them apparently minor. Syria and Iraq are having a rapprochement, for example. But if the killing of Palestinians continues at this rate, you will see even more visible effects.

// end act //

The violence has helped weaken the already faltering economic sanctions on Iraq and even give a boost to Saddam Hussein. Government officials and businessmen from Arab and European countries are ignoring sanctions to fly to Baghdad.

The New York Times reports hard-liners have been strengthened in Iran, and there are fears Iran and Iraq might patch up their differences, even though they have never signed a peace treaty after their eight-year war.

In recent parliamentary elections in Egypt, opposition Islamic candidates made gains that are partly attributed to popular revulsion against the government's U-S ties.

Mass demonstrations in support of Palestinians have taken place in more secular Turkey and in distant Indonesia, where objections to the outspoken U-S ambassador have fueled resentment against America.

Mr. Khalidi says reaction to the Israeli-Palestinian struggle will vary by country:

// Khalidi act //

What happens in each country will very much depend on the internal dynamics of that country. I am not sure that it will necessarily strengthen Islamists. It will strengthen anybody who argues for that country's independence of the United States, given the fact that the United States seems to be acting in a way contrary to the interests of Arabs and Muslims. So in different countries, it will work itself out in different ways.

// end act //

There is plenty of opposition to the United States in the Muslim world, says Milt Bearden, author and former top CIA official. Moderate Arab states have become immoderately angry at U-S policy and would hardly join a U-S led coalition today.

But don't expect a dramatic realignment, he adds, such as a reconciliation of those perennial adversaries, Iran and Iraq. Nor are Arab governments likely to fall, as is often predicted.

But U-S actions have had a cumulative effect; above all, the bombing of Arab nations:

// Bearden act //

The general picture is starting to move into very uncomfortable territory. It seems that the United States is broadly perceived as being against the Islamic world, and that is not in fact the case. But you would have a hard time convincing a lot of Muslims who have grievances that is not the case.

// end act //

Mr. Bearden expects a hardening of positions and at least temporary cooperation among disaffected Muslim nations, but questions how permanent it will be.

// Bearden act //

There is a sense of a common bond between the Arab Muslim world and the non-Arab Muslim world when it comes to the United States, and many of them can agree upon an issue when it comes to the United States. But I do not see that linking these people into some great monolith that would have to be dealt with as a bloc.

// end act //

Milt Bearden says the new administration in Washington will have to conduct a serious top-to-bottom review of its policy toward the Middle East and Islam in general. (signed)

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