Military

DATE=11/07/00

TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT

TITLE=ASIA/SOCIAL UNREST L-O

NUMBER=2-268924

BYLINE=AMY BICKERS

DATELINE=TOKYO

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

// Re-Issuing, correcting eighth graph of text //

INTRO: A prominent Asian-based political advisory group warns that much of the region remains at risk for social unrest. As VOA's Amy Bickers reports from Tokyo, the group says that even peaceful areas could experience a spillover from troubled neighbors.

TEXT: Many Southeast Asian countries and economies are susceptible to social unrest, according to the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy, an Asia-based organization. The group says the two most worrying nations at the moment are Indonesia and the Philippines.

Both countries are in the grips of political instability - with both leaders facing impeachment and under threat from growing poverty and Islamic extremist groups.

Analyst Bob Broadfoot, who co-authored a new report analyzing threats to the region says, problems in the Philippines and Indonesia could quite easily spill over into more stable neighbors, like Singapore an Malaysia. He says the on-going hostage taking by Islamic rebels in the Southern Philippines has already impacted Malaysia.

/// BROADFOOT ACT ///

The problem in the south is serious. It is getting a cross border dimension, which makes it especially dangerous. They (the rebels) are going into Malaysia and kidnapping tourists, you have Libya coming in and funding the hostage release, the Philippines mission in Indonesia has been bombed. This aspect of social unrest there is quite serious.

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The Political and Economic Risk Consultancy says with on-going economic and political instability it affects the region financially because investor confidence is based on perceptions. Mr. Broadfoot notes that nearby Singapore is in a precarious position because it is so close to Indonesia and could suffer if Indonesia becomes more unstable and business confidence in the area is damaged.

/// OPT /// Another good example of the spillover effect is Hong Kong. While the autonomous Chinese territory is a relatively peaceful place, Mr. Broadfoot says it would face problems if political turmoil enveloped mainland China, which is trying to cope with massive layoffs as ailing state-owned firms are closed.

/// 2nd BROADFOOT ACT - OPT ///

Hong Kong may not have people in the streets. There, demonstrations take place everyday but they are more a form of pressure release. But since 1949, there has not been one occasion where China has not gone through one of its spasms when Hong Kong has not been adversely affected, whether it was the Cultural Revolution or Tianammen Square.

/// END ACT END OPT ///

The risk consultantcy groups says that Southeast Asia remains at higher risk for social instability than does Northeast Asia, with Japan ranking as one of the safest nations in the region. But that could change. Mr. Broadfoot notes the thawing of decades-old animosity on the Korean Peninsula could lead to a greater social unrest in North Korea even as the threat of war subsides.

/// 3rd BROADFOOT ACT ///

What we are saying with South Korea is that the risks are falling because the military risks are going down because the two Koreas are at least talking. That reduces the military risk but it increases the social risk because if you have the people from the North being shown how the rest of the world is living and what they have been missing out on and you start opening up the awareness, you have potential refugee problems from the North to the South at some point ahead.

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The Political and Economic Risk Consultancy also conducted a survey of expatriate residents living in the region. It found that they frequently underestimate the potential for social unrest in many Asian countries. (SIGNED)

NEB/HK/AB/JO