Military

DATE=10/30/00

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-47292

TITLE=PERU UPRISING CQ

BYLINE=BILL RODGERS

DATELINE=LIMA

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

/// EDS: CORRECTS date Fujimori promised to step down to July 2001 in last graf of text of story that originally moved as 5-47291. SPANISH ACT IN BUBBLE ///

INTRO: A short-lived revolt by a small unit of Peruvian soldiers Sunday is the latest chapter in the political crisis that began in mid-September and which has steadily weakened Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori. Even though the uprising was widely deplored, some Peruvians expressed sympathy with the demands made by the rebel commander. V-O-A's Bill Rodgers reports from Lima.

TEXT: The revolt in southern Peru by about 50 soldiers led by a 38-year old Lieutenant Colonel failed to acquire much support from either the military or the populace. Within a day of Sunday's uprising, the mutiny was virtually over most of the soldiers were either captured or had deserted.

But Colonel Ollanta Humala Tasso's impassioned demands calling for President Fujimori to resign and for purging the Armed Forces high command struck a chord among some Peruvians.

Sunday's revolt was the latest twist in an ongoing political crisis that began last month when Mr. Fujimori fired his shadowy security chief, Vladimiro Montesinos. As head of an enormous intelligence apparatus, Mr. Montesinos wielded enormous power and used this power against anyone believed to represent a threat against President Fujimori. Mr. Montesinos' downfall came after a leaked videotape showed him apparently bribing an opposition politician. The public outcry forced Mr. Fujimori to move against Mr. Montesinos, and call new elections.

The spy chief subsequently fled Peru, but returned last week after failing to get political asylum in Panama plunging his nation into further instability. President Fujimori publicly led a manhunt against his former aide and also dismissed his military high command, all believed to have close ties with the former intelligence chief. Yet Mr. Montesinos is still at large leading many to suspect he remains under protection by some elements of the military.

It is in this context that Sunday's revolt took place and among Colonel Humala's demands was a call for the immediate arrest of Mr. Montesinos. But while deploring the uprising, Peru's political opposition also expressed sympathy with Colonel Humala's public appeals.

Congressman Luis Solari heads "Peru Posible" the party of Peru's most prominent opposition leader and former presidential candidate, Alejandro Toledo. Mr. Solari tells V-O-A his party understands what the rebel colonel was trying to achieve.

/// SOLARI ACT ///

We are not supporting commander Humala's action because it is against the constitution. But we understand why he is acting the way he is, even though we do not justify what he is doing. We are sure there are several officers who are not in agreement with the government, but they cannot express their wills, just commander Humala did it and we understand why he did it.

/// END ACT ///

On radio call-in programs, some Peruvians also sympathized with the colonel's demands, though not his actions.

But some political observers believe the opposition may be making a mistake by embracing Colonel Humala too closely. Political columnist Mirko Lauer says the officer's actions are not unlike revolts staged by other military figures in South America in recent years, notably Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. His failed coup in 1992 propelled him to prominence and enabled him to be elected President in 1998.

Mr. Lauer sees Colonel Humala's attempted revolt in the same tradition, but also warns it represents a failure by the Peruvian opposition.

/// LAUER ACT ///

Maybe it is not his intention, but a person like officer Humala obviously also is criticizing the civilian opposition like Mr. Toledo or Mr. Andrade who obviously do not have the capacity to solve his problems within the armed forces...so my feeling is that for the civilian opposition and Mr. Toledo. This is a delicate challenge because on the one hand he must recognize that there is an obvious kinship in asking for Mr. Fujimori and his generals to go. But on the other hand there may be a dangerous new element creeping into Peruvian politics the "macho" officer trying to turn his military career into a political career.

/// END ACT ///

But in the end, it may be President Fujimori who is hurt more by the revolt, even though it was unsuccessful.

/// OPT /// The Peruvian leader, who has governed his country in an authoritarian manner for the past 10-years, won re-election to a third-term in office last May in a vote widely condemned for its irregularities. Since then, especially after September's crisis, Mr. Fujimori is increasingly being seen as ineffective. /// END OPT ///

Opinion polls show his disapproval rate at more than 65-percent and his continued failure to capture his former spy chief may contribute to a further slide in support.

Federico Sagasti, who heads a pro-democracy think tank in Lima (Agenda Peru), believes that while the Humala revolt was an isolated incident, it also underscored the weakness of Mr. Fujimori.

/// SAGASTI ACT ///

He is a self-inflicted lame duck, if you wish, and he appears to be losing what was thought to be a strong grip in the country. He is losing authority and now his true weakness is beginning to show. Some of us have argued that Mr. Fujimori's regime was very brittle in the sense that it had the appearance of being very strong, very well structured and organized and almost immovable. But behind that exterior show it was quite easy for some of us to see the weaknesses, which have now been exposed over the last several days and weeks, not only with this uprising but with the changes in the top echelon of the military which do not go far enough as they should have and the many divisions that are taking place in the governing party.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Fujimori has promised to step down in July 2001, and hand over power to an elected successor. But in the wake of recent events, including Sunday's uprising, questions are being increasingly raised whether Mr. Fujimori will still be in office come next July. (SIGNED)

NEB/WFR/RAE