Military

DATE=10/27/2000

TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT

TITLE=TANZANIA / ELECTIONS

NUMBER=2-268524

BYLINE=SCOTT STEARNS

DATELINE=ZANZIBAR

INTERNET=YES

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: Campaigning in Tanzania enters its final weekend with the ruling party facing challenges both on the mainland and on the island of Zanzibar. V-O-A's Scott Stearns previews Sunday's national elections in East Africa.

TEXT:

/// RALLY ACT, ESTABLISH AND FADE ///

The only political party that has ever led Tanzania looks likely to win another five years in power. Party loyalists in yellow and green rally outside Zanzibar's old fort - their candidate, President Benjamin Mkapa, leading opinion polls in five of the country's nine provinces. The ruling party appears headed for another parliamentary majority.

In most African countries, that would be the end of the story. Tanzania is not so simple. It is not one contiguous nation. It is a 36-year-old political union between mainland Tanganyika and the Indian Ocean islands of Zanzibar and Pemba, a union that gives the islands their own president and house of representatives.

The federal president, Benjamin Mkapa, is still the head of state, but the Zanzibari president controls ancient, lucrative trade routes from Persia and Arabia, not to mention revenue from European tourists.

It is here on the islands that Tanzania's ruling party is facing its biggest challenge ever. The opposition Civic United Front is widely popular, especially on Pemba. If they can split the vote here on Zanzibar, political observers believe they will likely win the presidency. This despite what Amnesty International calls a campaign of intimidation against opposition leaders, including the arrest of more than a dozen officials on treason charges.

Mohammed Ali Yusuf is the Civic United Front spokesman for human rights and foreign relations. He says the process is already flawed by an electoral commission that he says answers to the ruling party, the C-C-M.

/// YUSUF ACT ///

It's an element of C-C-M, you see. Once the local commission is not independent, you don't expect to get a fair deal in that. That's the problem.

/// END ACT ///

Hassan Said Mzee is the electoral commission's vice president. He says all 13 parties with candidates on the islands have had the same opportunity to get their message to the voters.

/// MZEE ACT ///

The Zanzibar election will be free and fair. And it is up to the people to decide. Because we - they are the players. All the parties, they are the players. We cannot favor C-U-F, we cannot favor C-C-M. We are here to deal with them as equal partners in the field of the election - because they are the players, and we are the referees who help prepare the ground.

/// END ACT ///

Ahmed Hassan Diria is vice chair of the ruling party's national election campaign. He says the opposition is complaining of intimidation to distract from its own threats of violence surrounding the vote.

/// DIRIA ACT ///

We are very much concerned. We are very, very much concerned. And we are serious, that we will maintain the peace, the stability. And this election is going to be free and fair.

/// END ACT ///

The Civic United Front believes it won the last election on Zanzibar in 1995. The party boycotted the house of representatives in protest, then finally recognized the government, after assurances from the Commonwealth that the next time - this time - there would be a better electoral commission.

Mr. Yusuf says that is a promise that was never kept. If the party believes it is unfairly denied this vote, he says, they will move to bring people into the streets in the same way as recent revolts in Yugoslavia and Ivory Coast.

/// YUSUF ACT TWO ///

The public opinion is so negative on the commonwealth. The only option that the people feel is that, when this time CUF is robbed of its victory, to use, or to employ, similar tactics that have been used in Yugoslavia, and maybe Ivory Coast. That is how we deal with dictators.

/// END ACT ///

Tanzanian army units on the islands are on alert. Chief of defense forces General Robert Mboma is targeting what he called several sources which could cause friction and disrupt peace on the voting day, which need to be nipped in the bud.

General Mboma told people to stay at home after the vote, instead of gathering around polling stations in groups that he said could cause confrontation.

Ahmed Hassan Diria is confident the ruling party will win on Zanzibar. He says opposition leaders are preparing for violence because they cannot handle losing.

/// DIRIA ACT TWO ///

They are inciting the population. And to incite the population at the time of an election campaign, you are preparing a ground of a protest. You are preparing a ground of a resistance, to reject the results, because they know that they are going to be defeated.

/// END ACT ///

Wealthier families have sent their children to the mainland ahead of possible violence following Sunday's vote. Some merchants say they are paying wages early, so people can stockpile food before election day. (Signed)

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